Recently, the renminbi suddenly ushered in an unexpected **, which has attracted widespread attention and speculation. At the same time, under the global de-dollarization efforts, the proportion of US dollar payments has increased in half a year, does this represent a failure of de-dollarization?This article will analyze the trend of the yuan and the dollar, as well as the observation of the share of global currency payments, the changes in the trend of the yuan and the trend of de-dollarization.
The RMB suddenly appeared ** after a series of **, with the largest drop of more than 500 points this week, causing people to worry and wonder about the trend of the RMB. However, we need to take a sober look at this time**, it may just be a normal adjustment. In the past few weeks, the renminbi's gains have gradually decreased, which means that the yuan's momentum is weakening. Therefore, this ** may just be a reasonable reaction of the market to the trend of the RMB.
In addition, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is mainly affected by market sentiment and the Fed's policy. At the moment, the market generally ** the Fed will not raise interest rates again, but there is still some uncertainty. At the same time, the Fed's expectations for future interest rates will also affect the market's mentality, leading to fluctuations in the exchange rate market. Therefore, fluctuations in the exchange rate are inevitable until the end of the Fed meeting.
However, in the long run, the trend of the renminbi will be mainly affected by the economic trends of the two countries. According to the latest Caixin PMI data, the PMI of China's manufacturing and service industries both exceeded 50 and entered the expansion range, indicating that China's economy is constantly improving. At present, China is in a critical period of economic restructuring, and we no longer rely too much on real estate, but pay more attention to the growth of domestic demand. There will be certain fluctuations in the process of this structural adjustment, but in the medium and long term, the key factor determining the trend of the renminbi lies in the stable development of the economy.
Recently released data on the share of global currency payments showed that the share of payments in the US dollar has risen significantly in half a year, raising concerns about de-dollarization. However, we cannot assert that de-dollarization has failed, it is only a short-term trend.
First of all, the main reason for the increase in the share of the dollar is the decline in the share of the euro, which was once close to the share of the dollar in payments, but has now fallen significantly. Secondly, more and more countries are starting to use their own currencies for bilateral** settlements, while other payment systems are also expanding their use, which is not counted by SWIFT. In addition, the coverage of China's CIPS payment system is getting wider and wider, and many payments no longer rely on the SWIFT system, so they are not counted. In addition, there are more and more application scenarios of digital yuan launched in China, which will surely promote the use of yuan in the international environment.
Overall, we cannot judge the success of de-dollarization by the percentage of payments alone. De-dollarization is a complex process that requires long-term efforts and sustained progress. Moreover, as the world's fifth largest payment currency, the renminbi is still quite important in the international arena. Therefore, we should take a more objective and long-term view of the trend of the renminbi and the trend of de-dollarization.
Through the analysis of the sudden** increase in the proportion of RMB payments and US dollar payments, we can see that the change in the trend of the RMB and the trend of de-dollarization are affected by many factors, including market sentiment, economic trends and policy changes. Therefore, we should not draw conclusions from short-term data alone, but should consider a combination of factors and be oriented towards long-term developments. Personally, I remain optimistic about the trend of the renminbi and the trend of de-dollarization, and believe that with the continuous development of China's economy and the deepening of reform and opening up, the renminbi will play a more important role in the international arena and achieve more stable and sustainable development.