Introduction: "It is a matter of time before Wang Liang becomes the president. ”
April 18, 2022 is a day that all CMB investors want to forget.
On the same day, China Merchants Bank (03968.hk，600036.SH) suffered a diving ** at the opening, down 79, the market value evaporated nearly 90 billion yuan on the same day.
In the evening, China Merchants Bank issued an announcement to remove Tian Huiyu from the position of president and executive director of China Merchants Bank, and temporarily changed to Wang Liang, executive vice president, to preside over the work. After the National Day, the news of Tian Huiyu's investigation was officially announced.
China Merchants Bank, which is in the prime of life for 35 years, is experiencing a severe test;But perhaps, it is also about to usher in a "turning point" in another dimension.
01 Capricorn Governor
The first thing China Merchants Bank needs to face is the sharp fluctuation of stock prices caused by unexpected events.
On April 25, China Merchants Bank's A-shares fell more than 9%.
When answering the stock price question that investors are most concerned about, Wang Liang, the acting president at the time, said sincerely: "The stock price of China Merchants Bank fluctuated and fell last week, and we are very anxious, but the data of China Merchants Bank is very safe, which is worthy of investors' confidence." ”
The phrase "very anxious" just rightly empathizes with the anxiety of investors. Wang Liang, who made his debut, won the favor of the industry.
Frankly admitting the facts that have happened, and communicating with a positive attitude, investors can see Wang Liang's pragmatic style of "down-to-earth", not evasive, and facing up to challenges.
Wang Liang, who was born in December, has obvious Capricorn characteristics.
For example, Capricorns are known for their endurance, while Wang Liang has been working at China Merchants Bank for 28 years so far.
In 1995, after China Merchants Bank had just completed its second capital increase and share expansion, 30-year-old Wang Liang joined the Beijing branch of China Merchants Bank and worked at the grassroots level for 6 years.
In the past six years, China Merchants Bank Beijing Branch has developed rapidly and created a number of "firsts" in Beijing. For example, the first 24-hour self-service bank, the first "mobile banking" business, and personal credit loan business were issued for the first time in domestic and foreign currencies and fixed savings in one card.
In 2001, when China Merchants Bank was in full swing to prepare for listing, Wang Liang was promoted to assistant to the president of the Beijing branch and officially took up the leadership position.
In 2012, China Merchants Bank Beijing Branch won the "Top 10 Branches in Operation and Management" award by Contemporary Financier, and Wang Liang was also promoted to Assistant to the President of China Merchants Bank Head Office and President of Beijing Branch in the same year.
Three years later, Wang Liang was appointed as the vice president of the head office, and from 2016 to 2019, he also served as the secretary of the board of directors, the head of finance and the executive vice president, and entered the core management of China Merchants Bank.
In general, the "executive vice president" is recognized as the first vice president among the bank's multiple vice presidents. When the president is not on duty, the executive vice president will take full charge of the bank's work. This means in the circle that the successor is first in line to the president.
It is a matter of time before Wang Liang becomes the president. "Some people in the banking industry believe that Wang Liang has been in China Merchants Bank for a long time, has achievements, and understands business, and is the best candidate for the president of China Merchants Bank.
In the eyes of Miao Jianmin, chairman of China Merchants Bank, hiring Wang Liang as the president of China Merchants Bank has great positive significance for China Merchants Bank: "He is a cadre who has grown up from the grassroots level of China Merchants Bank, and he is very familiar with China Merchants Bank, very professional, rich in management, and very familiar with the situation of various positions, and good at overall planning and coordination. ”
Unlike other banks that frequently change core management, since its establishment in 1987, China Merchants Bank has long implemented the "president responsibility system under the leadership of the board of directors", and the position of president has been very stable. Including Wang Liang, there were only 4 presidents of China Merchants Bank in the past, and this mechanism will be maintained in the future.
Except for Tian Huiyu, the other two presidents can be called bankers who have made outstanding contributions in the history of the Bank of China.
Wang Shizhen, the first president of the bank, led the whole industry with disruptive innovative products and management models such as real estate mortgage loans and computerized "one-first" business. Under his auspices, China Merchants Bank increased its capital and shares twice and formed a national commercial bank structure, with total assets increasing to more than 140 billion yuan.
Since 1995, China Merchants Bank has been accumulating retail business, and has gradually established the name of "King of Retail" through ace products and innovative services such as "One **", "One Net", "Golden Sunflower Wealth Management", etc.
When the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis was still in place, the second governor Ma Weihua took office in a critical situation, and the thorny run crisis was completed in 9 days. With insights that span the ages, Ma Weihua led China Merchants Bank to fully transform into a retail business and complete its listing. In the past 15 years, the assets of China Merchants Bank have expanded to nearly 5 trillion yuan.
Freshness, curiosity, and wanting to explore" have also become the core of the innovative spirit of Ma Weihua and CMB.
In the nine years that Tian Huiyu has been in office, the assets of China Merchants Bank have exceeded the 9 trillion mark. In 2021, revenue and net profit increased again, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit also hit a six-year high.
In the 40 years since China's economic take-off, China Merchants Bank has been developing upward, and almost every step has stepped on the right node, becoming the object of imitation and learning in the banking industry, and even the "ideological steel seal" of many bank investors.
In the face of the giants towering above the top of the mountains, the pressure on the heir can be imagined. After the Tian Huiyu incident, investors have become more keen on China Merchants Bank.
Compared with his predecessor, Capricorn Wang Liang has a rigorous and low-key personal style, and is known as a "Confucian general".
The market wants to know whether this "Confucian general" can lead the "king of retail" to overcome obstacles and re-polish the golden sign of "Zhaoxing Faith".
02 ** year
Perhaps Wang Liang believes that for China Merchants Bank, which has suffered from "trauma" at this moment, "* is the first priority."
Since Wang Liang became the president of China Merchants Bank, the meaning of "stabilizing" is even heavier.
Tian Huiyu's case is a personal incident, and no one in China Merchants Bank has been implicated." Wang Liangxian "cut the incident" from the "fundamentals".
Over the past two months, under the leadership of the board of directors and with the support and help of the leaders of the regulatory authorities, I have led the management of China Merchants Bank to stabilize the strategy, operation, mechanism, team and market, and maintain the normal operation of various operation and management businesses of China Merchants Bank. "The Capricorn governor has once again shown determination.
In order to express his confidence in China Merchants Bank, Wang Liang paid out of his own pocket and increased his holdings in China Merchants Bank twice.
On May 26, 2022, shortly after taking office, Wang Liang increased his holdings of 20,000 shares of China Merchants Bank in the secondary market, with a total transaction amount of 76660,000 yuan. Three months later, on August 22, he increased his holdings by another 30,000 shares, with a total turnover of 100650,000 yuan.
On the same day that Wang Liang increased his holdings for the second time, China Merchants Bank held a 2022 interim results directional exchange meeting. At the meeting, analysts expressed concern about the slowdown in retail loan growth in the first half of the year, the fluctuation of wealth management business, the narrowing of net interest margins, and the rise of non-performing rate indicators.
Wang Liang responded that China Merchants Bank will further adhere to the development strategy of retail banking, develop wealth management and increase retail credit. -- It is still the word "stability".
When asked "why the number of employees increased by about 10,000 last year", Wang Liang said that in 2022, college students will encounter great difficulties in employment, and this year will increase the recruitment of fresh graduates. "Recruiting one more person may solve a family's problem. At the same time, the business development of China Merchants Bank also needs to enrich personnel. ”
Wang Liang's speech was described by some analysts as "giving the market a "reassurance".
Now, a year and a half later, the market is beginning to worry about whether the once high-spirited China Merchants Bank is "moving towards mediocrity".
In the first three quarters of 2023, China Merchants Bank's revenue fell by 172%, and showed a trend of decline for many quarters. The "king of retail" is facing challenges from all sides.
According to Wang Liang, "the retail business is currently an adjustment period under adversity".
On the one hand, residents' willingness to borrow money to buy houses and borrow for consumption is sluggish, and the banking industry as a whole is under pressure.
In the third quarter of this year, China Merchants Bank added 59.1 billion yuan in retail loans, down 24% from 73.3 billion yuan in the same period last year. As of the end of the second quarter of this year, the balance of mortgage loans, which accounts for the largest proportion of retail loans, was down both year-on-year and compared with the beginning of the year.
From the perspective of off-balance sheet retail, due to the need to improve the money-making effect of the market, residents will buy ** and buy wealth management assets, and a considerable part of them will turn to time deposits and prepayment loans, which will affect the growth of banks' fee income.
Wealth management is the retail advantage of China Merchants Bank, but the lack of momentum release is also a major reason why it is difficult to perform well this year.
03 Defend against the wind
However, China Merchants Bank still has a lot of "winning cards" in its hands. At least in the retail and wealth management sectors, CMB's position is still solid.
For example, the resilience of CMB's on-balance sheet credit business is still there. In the first three quarters of 2023, CMB's net interest margin was 219%, ranking third among listed banks for which data are available. The net interest margin can remain at a high level, partly due to the extremely low deposit cost brought about by high customer stickiness, and partly due to the "retail gene" of China Merchants Bank.
With China Merchants Bank's business style of consistently maintaining a high net interest margin, it is expected that it will not blindly engage in a first-class battle in the future.
On December 22, China Merchants Bank (CMB) issued an announcement on adjusting the interest rate of RMB deposits, which was consistent with that of major state-owned banks.
Another example is consignment sales, China Merchants Bank has become the first bank in the industry to break through the 1,000 billion mark in terms of public offering.
Another example is the imagination space of China Merchants Bank's private bank. On December 18, 2023, the China Banking Association disclosed that at the end of 2022, China Merchants Bank ranked first among Chinese banks in terms of the number of private bank customers and the scale of private bank assets (AUM), and significantly ahead of the second place Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600,000.).sh）。
Private banking customers are the "crown jewel" of banking business, and their contribution to bank income is almost all-round. Holding the trump card of private banking, China Merchants Bank has frequently adjusted relevant business lines, and in recent years, it has increased marketing to young users, making room for imagination for future development.
If you don't do retail business, you won't have anything to eat now, and you won't have anything to eat in the future." Wang Lianghua once used Ma Weihua's words to show a firm attitude towards retail strategy.
Finally, asset quality is stable. At the end of the third quarter of this year, the non-performing loan ratio of China Merchants Bank was 0.96%, which is still below 1%, which is a low level among listed banks. In particular, the non-performing rate of CMB's credit card assets is only 168%, while many other joint-stock banks are above 2%.
This means that CMB's retail expansion is not at the expense of asset quality. This is particularly precious in the context of the current "asset shortage".
Vice President Wang Ying mentioned, "In asset growth, quality, price stability, and increment are impossible triangles, and the first place for China Merchants Bank is always quality." ”
Guaranteed quality, but also alluded to Wang Liang's "steady management" ideas. He once wrote in the book "Asset and Liability Management Practice of Commercial Banks": "In the context of long-term rapid growth, domestic commercial banks have formed a deep-rooted scale orientation and do not pay enough attention to the quality of development;In terms of results, it is often not the characteristics of intensive development of connotation, but the characteristics of extensive extension and expansion, and even ignoring risks. ”
However, investors' expectations for China Merchants Bank are not only in terms of asset quality, but also in seeing the inflection point of its revenue and profit growth as soon as possible, that is, to achieve quality preservation and expansion at the same time.
This is because, in the past era of real estate expansion, many banks rushed in, regardless of the scale and high returns, but in recent years, without exception, they have fallen into a period of pain. Getting rid of the "old troubles" as soon as possible and keeping the fundamentals stable will be the proposition of the new era for all banks.
Standing at a new starting point, the reality of the whole industry such as asset shortage, debt reduction, fee reduction and profit concession is coming. For China Merchants Bank, in times of headwinds, maintaining asset quality and market position may be another sense of "moving forward".
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