Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that Huafu** released a research report saying that from 2022Q3, the United States has been in the stage of destocking, and the destocking cycle has exceeded 1 year. According to our previous report, U.S. Inventory Cycle Locations**, the average length of the U.S. destocking phase is 18In August, and so on, the inventory cycle bottomed out or in 2024H1, and the replenishment was likely to start in 2024H2.
The main points of Huafu** are as follows:
As of October, U.S. nominal inventories were still in a downward channel, with wholesalers' inventories leading the declineAs of October 2023, the growth rate of total nominal inventories, manufacturers' inventories, wholesalers' inventories, and retailers' inventories in the United States is .3%, retailers marginally**, but manufacturers and wholesalers are still on the decline, with wholesalers leading the decline.
The decline in real inventories was slightly better than that of nominal inventories, but the decline in wholesalers was also at the topAccording to the quarterly inventory data released by BEA, as of 2023Q3, the total private sector, manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers' actual inventory growth rates were .6%, the growth rate of total inventory is slightly higher than that of Q2 (0.).1%), where manufacturers and retailers grew at a margin** (0.).5%、+1.3%), but wholesalers continued their downward trend (-1.).9%）。
Non-durable goods lead durable goods, and the growth rate of inventories of paper products, clothing, furniture and home furnishings is at the historically low quantileAccording to the inventory growth rate of wholesalers by category, non-durable goods (-89%) grew at a slower rate than durable goods (20%), and the historical quantile values of the two are 13% and 282%, non-durable goods to the warehouse leading;According to more detailed categories, paper products (0.3%), clothing (0.6%), furniture and home furnishings (2.7%), etc., the historical quantile value in October is low, or not far from replenishment, but it needs to be observed.
The U.S. destocking may continue until 2024H1, but the magnitude may continue to slow down, and the replenishment cycle still needs to waitSince 2022Q3, the United States has been in the destocking stage, and the destocking cycle has exceeded 1 year. According to our previous report, U.S. Inventory Cycle Locations**, the average length of the U.S. destocking phase is 18In August, and so on, the inventory cycle bottomed out or in 2024H1, and the replenishment was likely to start in 2024H2. From the perspective of historical experience, domestic exports are usually under pressure during the destocking stage of the United States, mainly because developed economies such as the United States are still the main places of external demand. Looking ahead, there is still downward pressure on short-term U.S. inventories + global manufacturing PMI is still sluggish, corresponding to China's exports still posing some pressure. In this context, domestic demand policies are expected to continue to exert force to hedge the adverse impact of the decline in exports. The marginal slowdown of the United States' destocking will correspond to the weakening of downward pressure on exports, but its actual recovery still needs to wait for the global economic recovery + the United States and other developed economies to begin to replenish the warehouse.
Risk warning: The U.S. economy is more resilient than expected, and historical experience is not indicative of the future.