[Uncle Rui on the city] see the dragon in the field, or jump in the abyss!
Silicon carbide models are intensively released, accelerating penetration and opening up growth space!
Name of Fortune Navigator: Mao Rui (SAC registration number: S1130622080021).
The three major indexes opened lower collectively in early trading on Thursday. After the opening, the index showed a unilateral upward trend, driven by the sharp inflow of northbound funds. In the afternoon, although the index rally slowed down, the center of gravity still shifted upward. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Index rose sharply. 85% reimbursed. On the disk, there are 58 daily limit stocks (excluding ST and unopened new stocks), showing that the market sentiment is average;The change-rate ratio is 4282:734, and the average increase is 194%, the money-making effect is significant, and the turnover of the two cities is 884.4 billion, an increase of 3888%。There was a significant net inflow of more than 13.5 billion yuan in northbound funds.
I thought that before the end of the year, it was like this, but what I didn't expect was that in the absence of special benefits, the market was "suddenly like a spring breeze overnight", and gave everyone a surprise in advance, driven by the largest single-day net inflow record after July 8, the market yesterday ushered in a long-lost hearty rise, of which the GEM index also set a single-day increase record this year. Although this year's market is a bit unsatisfactory, the rise before the end of the year has brought some hope to everyone for the coming year. Uncle Rui also wants to make a simple outlook for the coming year in the morning comment on the last trading day of the year.
First of all, from a macroeconomic point of view, there is a high probability that there will still be a weak recovery trend, mainly based on two factors: first, the rapid growth rate of RMB deposits this year, and the continuous decline in the growth rate of narrow money ** M0 reflects the weak trend of residents, enterprises' consumption and investment intentions, I am afraid that it will be difficult to make a big change for a while;Second, the slowdown in the potential driving force of demand in the U.S. economy may lead to the continued weakening of U.S. consumption momentum in the future, which means that exports, which began to weaken this year, are unlikely to make a big difference next year. Reflected in the earnings of A-share listed companies, although the current "profit bottom" has initially appeared, and it is expected to be repaired upward next year, the elasticity may be weak and the process performance may be more tortuous. Against this backdrop, it may be difficult to have a big bull market, or more similar to the 2013 situation where the range is dominant but the center is higher than the previous year.
Second, based on the loose rhythm of macro liquidity and capital, the market pattern may present an "N-shaped" structure, that is, there may be two more obvious phased opportunities throughout the year. One is expected to appear in the first quarter when macro liquidity and funds are the most abundant, and there is a blockbuster meeting in March policy expectations, forming a traditional "spring mania", and the other is expected to be accompanied by the Federal Reserve's clear interest rate cut signal and then start the interest rate cut cycle, this stage of foreign capital is expected to increase the inflow of foreign capital into the A** field with the improvement of overseas liquidity. In addition, looking back on history, from the perspective of the annual rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index in the 33 years since 1991, there are only two years between 7% and 13%, so it can be expected that these two phased opportunities should still have good returns.
In the long run, the operation of ** is a bull and bear alternate and cyclical process, a complete bull and bear cycle generally includes four stages, which can correspond to the dragon in the eighteen palms of the hidden dragon do not use, see the dragon in the field, the flying dragon in the sky, and the dragon has regrets. If this year is considered a "don't use the hidden dragon" of the dragon diving in the deep sea, then combined with Uncle Rui's above-mentioned prospects, next year should be the "see the dragon in the field" where the dragon has appeared in the field but has not yet soared. Of course, if some fundamental issues affecting the macroeconomy can be significantly improved this year, and then resonate with the start of the external interest rate cut cycle, it cannot be ruled out that there will be a bigger surprise next year - the "or leap in the abyss" of the eighteen palms of the dragon. Standing at the moment, the first thing is to prepare for the "spring mania" that will appear with a high probability, therefore, at the corresponding operational level, the current advice to everyone is as follows: light positions are mainly based on dips;Heavy positions are mainly patiently holding on to the stock to rise.
Plate Nuggets
In terms of sectors and hot spots, on the market yesterday, in terms of industries, sorted in an unweighted manner, electrical equipment, mineral products, insurance, etc. were among the top gainers, while coal, transportation facilities, and transportation services were relatively stagnant. In terms of themes, combined with the increase of more than 5%** number and the increase in the sector index, BC batteries, HJT batteries, photovoltaics, lithium battery concepts, energy storage, etc. are quite active.
Yesterday's most eye-catching varieties in the market are undoubtedly the photovoltaic industry chain, among which photovoltaic-related electrical equipment ranks first in the industry index list, and in the concept plate index list, photovoltaic-related BC batteries, HJT batteries, TOPCON batteries, perovskite batteries, POE films, BIPV concepts, photovoltaics, etc. are collectively in the forefront, which is simply the existence of dominating the list. For this performance of the photovoltaic industry chain, Uncle Rui is not very surprised, in fact, Uncle Rui also gave you a key reminder of the opportunity of photovoltaic in the morning comment last Friday, saying: "After a year and a half of the trend, investors on the photovoltaic sector from worry, pessimism, panic, to despair of negative emotions have basically been released, next year the photovoltaic sector is expected to usher in the fundamentals and market expectations of the inflection point." "Today, Uncle Rui won't talk much about photovoltaics, friends who are interested in the logic of photovoltaic optimism can go to see Uncle Rui's morning comment last Friday. Next, Uncle Rui wants to talk about energy storage that is closely related to photovoltaics and has some similar fundamentals and logic. The similarity with photovoltaic fundamentals, one is that the industry prosperity is quite high, although overseas natural gas ** fall, loan interest rate rise has many adverse effects on marginal demand, but from the installed capacity of energy storage this year still achieved rapid growth, according to the relevant research report of the national financial **, this year's global energy storage new installed capacity of 946GWh, a year-on-year increase of 101%;Second, because the production capacity is too fast, the industry "involution" is serious, and the energy storage market bidding in the first half of the year is still in 11 yuan, 1About 2 yuan (per watt hour), the latest round of centralized procurement, ** reported to 063 yuan to 064 yuan (per watt-hour), which is close to the cost level, which is also the main factor leading to the continuous adjustment of the energy storage sector since the second half of the year. Looking forward to 2024, the prosperity of the energy storage industry is expected to continue to maintain a high level. Domestically, this year, various provinces issued documents requiring an increase in the proportion of new energy distribution and storage, and some provinces with large distributed installed capacity for the first time clearly required distributed photovoltaic to be allocated and stored, and the national average distribution and storage ratio in 2024 is estimated to be 120%, and the storage time is 23 hours. Conservatively assuming that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in 2024 will be GW respectively, so it is estimated that the installed capacity is expected to reach 30 in 20246gw/70.4GWh, up 69% to 91% year-on-year. From the perspective of the United States, in the first three quarters of 2023, the new installed capacity of large reserves in the United States will be 44gw/13.4GWh, up 41% to 46% year-over-year. According to calculations, when the cost of energy storage construction is from 0$2 wh drops to 0At $18 Wh, the project yield can be increased by at least 5 pct, and for every 100 basis point decrease in the loan rate, the project yield will increase by 14pct。Therefore, it is judged that with the acceleration of lithium carbonate ** bottoming out and the gradual implementation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy, the IRR (internal rate of return on capital) of energy storage power stations is expected to be significantly improved, and the growth rate of installed capacity is expected to exceed expectations, and it is expected that the new installed capacity of large storage in the United States from 2023 to 2024 will be GWH, a year-on-year increase. From the perspective of Europe, since the beginning of this year, the relevant support policies and bidding speed of European countries for large-scale energy storage have been significantly accelerated, and according to the European Energy Storage Association**, the new installed capacity in Europe will reach 5 in 20243GW, up 41% year-on-year. It is estimated that the new installed capacity of European household storage in 2023-2024 will be respectively. 0GWh, year-on-year growth, with the gradual decline of inventory to a reasonable state, superimposed on the arrival of the 2Q24 European installation season, is expected to promote the recovery of household storage shipments year-on-year. As for the problem of "involution" in the industry, the current domestic energy storage market bidding is close to the cost price, and the room for product price reduction is very limited, and the previous price reduction has also accelerated the industry clearance, and the future industry supply and demand pattern is expected to gradually improve. At the same time, with the release of battery cell supply and the intensification of competition in the energy storage market, the revenue growth rate and profitability of various companies have clearly diverged, and the volume and profit of companies with strong overseas order acquisition capabilities have increased significantly. In the future, enterprises with global business layout, vertically integrated industrial chain and good bankability will have more advantages in market share and profitability. Overall, the current energy storage industry has reached the bottom of the cycle, and the overall energy storage sector has limited room for adjustment and there are certain opportunities for repair. Structurally, those companies that still maintain significant volume and profit growth in the fierce competition have a certain amount of wrongful killing in the early stage, and the follow-up repair flexibility will be greater. In today's permission section, we will also share with you a "Energy Storage Sector Investment Suggestions and Key Targets" for reference.
On the news side, at two o'clock in the afternoon on December 28th, Lei Jun, who had previously shouted "I am willing to bet on all the accumulated achievements and reputation in my life and fight for Xiaomi cars", appeared at the scene of Xiaomi's automotive technology conference and officially announced to the outside world the birth of Xiaomi's first car - Xiaomi SU7 - a positioning C-class high-performance ecological technology car. At the press conference, Lei Jun mainly displayed super motors, 800V silicon carbide high-voltage platforms, Xiaomi super die-casting, Xiaomi intelligent driving, etc. For the 800V silicon carbide high-voltage platform, Lei Jun said that the current models exceeding 500V can be called 800V, and the maximum voltage of the 800V platform of Xiaomi SU7 has reached 871V. Recently, 800V silicon carbide new models ushered in intensive debuts, in addition to Xiaomi SU7, the just-released Zeekrypton 007, Wenjie M9, Weilai and Xpeng X9 and other models have been equipped with 800V silicon carbide. In the context of major brands competing to upgrade to high-voltage platforms, silicon carbide models are expected to achieve rapid penetration in 2024. As a third-generation semiconductor material, silicon carbide (SiC) has many significant advantages: (1) High voltage resistance: Compared with Si materials, it has more than 10 times the breakdown field strength, so it can achieve higher breakdown voltage through lower resistivity and thinner drift layer, and under the same withstand voltage value, the on-resistance size of SiC power module is only 1 10 of silicon (Si), and the power loss is greatly reduced. (2) High frequency resistance: SiC material does not have the phenomenon of current tailing, which can improve the switching speed of the component, which is 3-10 times that of silicon (Si) switching speed, so as to be suitable for higher frequency and faster switching speed. (3) High temperature resistance: SiC material has a large band gap (about 3 times that of Si) and high thermal conductivity (about 3 times that of Si).3 times), high melting point (2830, about twice that of Si-1410), so the SiC device can significantly increase the operating temperature while reducing current leakage. Based on the above advantages, the penetration rate of silicon carbide devices in the fields of new energy vehicles, energy, industry, and communications is expected to continue to increase in the future, and the market scale is expected to continue to expand, of which new energy vehicles and photovoltaics are important fields. (1) New energy vehicles: SiC devices are mainly used in PCU (power control unit, such as on-board DC DC) and OBC (charging unit), compared with SI devices, SiC devices can reduce the weight and volume of PCU equipment, reduce switching losses, and improve the working temperature and system efficiency of the device;When OBC charging, the SiC device can improve the power level of the unit, simplify the circuit structure, increase the power density, and increase the charging speed. (2) Photovoltaic power generation field: SiC materials have lower on-resistance, gate charge and reverse recovery charge characteristics, the use of SiC-MOSFET or SiC-MOSFET and SiC-SBD combined photovoltaic inverter, the conversion efficiency can be increased from 96% to 99%+, the energy loss is reduced by 50%+, and the cycle life of the equipment is increased by 50 times. From the perspective of industry trends, SiC is the general trend. Tesla once said at the investor conference in early March 2023 that it would reduce the amount of SiC by 75%, which once triggered speculation about the future development prospects of SiC, but recently the global auto market has expressed its support for SiC with practical actions, such as Stellantis, the world's fourth largest automobile group, announced that it has signed semiconductor cooperation agreements with a number of leading companies, including SiC, with a total value of more than 8 billion yuan. In China, in addition to the previously released Huawei Zhijie S7 and the Xiaomi Su7 released this time all use SiC devices, at the 21st Guangzhou International Auto Show recently, it contains at least 15 new models featuring SIC, which not only appear in the second half of this year will be listed popular SiC models, such as Yangwang U8, Zhiji LS6, Huawei Wenjie M9, etc., there are also some SIC models that have not yet been listed, such as Audi Q6 E-TRON and Yangwang U9 and so on are also on the scene. In addition, this year, there are a number of standard silicon carbide models such as Xpeng G6 and Zeekr X, which are 20-250,000 yuan. According to the data of the NE era, from January to November, the penetration rate of silicon carbide modules in the main drive of domestic passenger cars was about 10%, and the penetration rate of silicon carbide in 800V models increased significantly in the second half of the year: from June to November, the proportion of silicon carbide models in 800V models was 15%, 18%, 29%, 35%, 39% and 45% respectively. According to the relevant brokerage research report, the silicon carbide market will be dominated by new energy vehicles in the future, and the global market size is expected to reach 6.6 billion US dollars in 2028, with a CAGR of up to 32% in 22-28 years. Since silicon carbide is the general trend, the corresponding market opportunities behind this industrial trend are naturally worth paying attention to. In today's authority section, we will also share with you again a "Silicon Carbide Industry Chain Investment Suggestions and Key Targets Combing" for reference.
Operational Strategy
Driven by the sharp inflow of northbound funds, the three major indexes ushered in a long-awaited surge yesterday, among which the ChiNext index also set a record for a single-day increase this year. **Look, yesterday's big rise. Not only did it help boost the recent sluggish market sentiment, but technically, the three major indices on a daily basismacdThe indicators all showed a golden cross and formed a bottom divergence, indicating that the market has entered a swing upward period. However, based on the fact that there is still a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the funds a year ago, and the long-standing weak market confidence also needs to have a gradual improvement process, it is expected that today's market will be strong. In the long run, the "policy bottom", "economic bottom", "valuation bottom" have appeared one after another, and the third quarterly report of listed companies reflects the "performance bottom" has also initially appeared, coupled with the improvement of the capital at the beginning of the year, the market tends to appear "spring restlessness"** In the medium term, on the one hand, the current price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio corresponding to the Shanghai Composite Index are at the bottom of history, that is, it has a very high medium and long-term margin of safety and investment cost performance. On the other hand, although the foundation of the current economic recovery is not yet solid, the general direction of the recovery has not changed as the monetary policy continues to be loose and measures to stabilize growth have been implemented one after another. In addition, the Fed is about to end its interest rate hike cycle, external factors will gradually dissipate, and the medium-term market outlook remains positive. Operationally, those who take light positions mainly increase their positions on dips;Heavy positions are mainly patiently holding on to the stock to rise.
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