China occupies an absolute advantage in the global new energy vehicle market, and its new energy passenger vehicle production accounts for 63% of the global share, with a world-leading position. China's new energy vehicle "three electrics" technology, that is, battery, motor and electronic control technology, is also in a leading position in the world. BYD is a leader in China's new energy vehicle market, with five of the world's top 10 best-selling electric vehicle models being BYD products. In addition, Chinese brands occupy 15 positions in the world's top 20 best-selling models, clearly dominating the market. BYD's market share is expected to reach 20 by September 202391%, ranking first in the world, ahead of other companies. In addition, Chinese companies such as GAC Aion, Li Auto, Changan and Geely also rank high in the global new energy vehicle market, with six Chinese companies entering the top 10 in terms of market share. In contrast, European NEV companies are slower to respond to market trends due to the long R&D phase. European automakers can take up to 4 years from concept to trial for a car, while Chinese manufacturers take less than two years and are therefore able to react more quickly to market trends. In addition, in terms of software knowledge, nearly 45% of R&D personnel in the new competitors in China and the United States have software knowledge, while only 15%-20% of R&D personnel in the European automotive industry have software knowledge. In terms of **, Chinese EV manufacturers have converted their cost advantage into a competitive advantage, and their costs are 20%-30% lower than European automakers. According to a teardown report by overseas investment bank UBS, the overall cost of China's BYD Seal is 15% lower than that of Tesla's Model 3 produced at the Shanghai Gigafactory, and 35% lower than the cost of Volkswagen's similar-spec models produced in Europe. It is expected that as China's electric vehicles become more affordable and cheaper to produce, Western automakers' global market share could fall by one-fifth. It is estimated that by 2030, the global market share of Chinese auto companies could nearly double to 33%. In addition, China also has a clear leading edge in the power battery industry chain, and on the whole, the advantages of China's new energy vehicle industry chain are difficult for Western countries to shake.
In the face of China's leading edge in new energy vehicles, Western countries have adopted different responses. The U.S. has introduced new rules that stipulate that U.S. electric vehicles that use Chinese batteries will not be eligible for tax exemptions. Starting next year, U.S.-made electric vehicles will reportedly lose a tax exemption of up to $7,500 per vehicle if they use battery components made or assembled in countries such as China. Although this new regulation is ostensibly aimed at China's power batteries, it is in fact also aimed at China's new energy vehicles. The United States has responded to the advantages of China's new energy vehicle industry chain through the best protection policy.
Germany, for its part, has waived subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles, but at the same time has acquired China's new energy vehicle technology by investing in local new energy vehicle companies and technology companies. Volkswagen has invested billions of dollars in China's homegrown EV startups, battery makers and self-driving technology companies, with plans to launch 30 electric vehicles in China.
France has chosen to exclude Asian electric vehicles from the subsidy, making it clear that the subsidy does not include Asian-made electric vehicles such as the Tesla Model 3 produced in China. At the same time, the European Union has also launched a countervailing investigation into China's electric vehicles, and some analysts believe that France has played a role in driving it.
The UK originally planned to ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles in 2030, but the plan was postponed until 2035. This is due to the imperfect layout of the new energy vehicle industry chain in the United Kingdom, and the power battery production capacity is seriously insufficient. Aston Martin's CEO says the UK already doesn't have the battery production capacity to support its EV ambitions.
Japan's Toyota Motor Corporation has a conservative attitude towards new energy vehicles, considering them to be "low-grade products" and expressing a willingness to boycott them. But Toyota is also bullish on solid-state battery technology and is trying to surpass China's new energy vehicle companies through this technology. However, it will take time for solid-state batteries to be commercialized, and it is expected that large-scale commercial use will not be achieved until around 2030.
Generally speaking, in the context of the regression of globalization, the new energy vehicle industry has important strategic significance and market size, and Western countries will not easily cede the market to Chinese companies. Therefore, these countries will adopt various measures to protect and support local enterprises, or delay their own carbon neutrality plans and goals.