On Christmas Eve, December 24, 2008, a professor of political science at Harvard University passed away. The world says so:
The influence of each of his books cannot be underestimated, and his doctrines have become everyday words";
He is the most influential political scientist of the last 50 years, and all people in the world have to study and debate his ideas";
He was Samuel Phillips Huntington.
When people think of Huntington, they immediately think of terms such as "clash of civilizations" and "third wave". But these are just a few of the waves in Huntington's vast thinking.
Huntington's greatness,Not only because he foresaw the most pressing political problems in the contemporary world, but also because of his "eternal political thinking", which transcended the limitations of time and place. Some scholars even believe that after Heinz, there is no master.
Scholars, politicians, and ordinary people who care about power and freedom should ponder Huntington's five prophecies.
Prophecy 1:DomesticA New Perspective on Politics – Identity
Who am I?I'm from **?I'm going to **?Whether this is the most important question in philosophy remains to be discussed;But today, the "identity" derived from it has undoubtedly become the most important political issue.
People who pursue identity politics do not care about material resources, but demand recognition of a person's race, religion, ethnicity, and even the unique characteristics of the individual.
For example, in Europe and the United States, the demands of black lives matter and homosexuality of ethnic minorities have become "political correctness", which not only drowns out the facts, but also has a huge impact on freedom of speech and the fairness of rules.
In fact, Huntington foresaw the trend of identity politics decades ago, and pointed out its essence and "diagnosis and treatment plan".
In his book Who Are Americans: Challenges to America's National Identity, he argues that traditional American identity is, first and foremost, an identification of values—an affirmation of the "Anglo-Saxon puritanism."
It is this foundation that is strong and inclusiveThe value community enabled immigrants from all over the world to merge into the United States, which was the foundation of America's strength and prosperity, and also shaped the Puritans' cultural identity as an "American nation".
Huntington warned that in recent decades, the influx of immigrants from Asia, Africa and Latin America of different faiths has greatly diluted the recognition of American values such as freedom, rule of law, republicanism, hard work, and struggle, which will lead to the loss of competitiveness and even decay of the United States.
In the postmodern society, which pursues "cultural value pluralism", Huntington's conservative tone is of course criticized by many people.
But now, the tendency of tribalization has led to a "great tear" between Europe and the United States at home. Trump in the United States and Wilders in the Netherlands both succeeded in winning the election by attacking the immigration issue.
In other countries, the influx of blacks and Muslims has also sparked increasingly heated debates.
These facts prove Huntington's prescience.
Poster of the 1908 American opera "The Melting Pot".Prophecy 2: International PoliticsA new paradigm- The clash of civilizations
Since the time of writing, conflicts between nations have never ceased.
In the past, it was generally believed that the root cause of international conflicts lay in practical factors such as interests, ambitions, and history. (Berlin Wall, soldiers across the wall).
However, in his book The Clash of Civilizations and the Reconstruction of World Order, Huntington has taken a unique approach and put forward a new perspective on international politics - the theory of the clash of civilizations.
The determinant of the world pattern is the differences between the major civilizations. The world is roughly divided into seven to eight civilizations, including the Chinese civilization, the Western civilization, the Japanese civilization, the Latin American civilization, the Indian civilization, the Orthodox Christian civilization, the Islamic civilization, and the possible African civilization.
He asserted,The post-Cold War world,The root cause of the conflict is no longer ideology, but the differences between these seven or eight cultures and religions. In particular, there will be a lot of conflict between East and West, as well as on the fault line of civilization.
Civilization is something inherent in a nation that is difficult to change, so world conflicts will never be eliminated.
From the beginning of the century 9The 11 incident, from the recent Russia-Ukraine and Palestinian-Israeli wars, to the re-emergence of full-scale confrontation between the East and the West, have been staged during Huntington's lifetime.
Huntington's "civilization fault line".ProphecyThree: modernization and transformationNew perspectives——Both democracy and order are important
For more than 300 years, if there has been only one theme in human politics, it is "democratization".
All countries, whether active or passive, have listed "democracy" as one of the goals of modernization and transformation. In The Third Wave: The Wave of Democratization at the End of the 20th Century, Huntington argues that the process of democratization of humanity can be divided into three waves.
The third wave of democratization, beginning with the Carnation Revolution in Portugal in 1974, has already been followed by 30 countries. Contemporary times are still on the extension line of this wave.
Democracy has grown so rapidly that it has become the most powerful and desirable political change in human history. But Huntington warns that while the prospect of democracy is enticing, the stability of order is equally important.
In his book Political Order in a Changing Society, Huntington points outThe most important political division between countries is not in the form, but in the degree of effectiveness.
A society can certainly have order without freedom, but it cannot have freedom without order. There must be an authority that can protect the order, and then there can be talk of limiting authority.
So,The country turnsThe key is not democratic elections, but the establishment of a political order that can govern effectively and with checks and balances.
In recent years, the transformation problems of Afghanistan and other Asian countries, the emergence of military ** in Latin America and Africa, and the difficulties encountered in the process of democratization around the world all prove how prescient Huntington's prudence and pessimism about democracy are.
On the eve of the withdrawal of US troops from AfghanistanProphecy 4: "Military-Government Relations".Harmonious checks and balances - professionalization of the officer corps
Since mankind has had a state, the relationship between the military and ** is a major root of **.
In traditional societies, there have always been two extremes: if the army is not controlled, the country will soon fall into secession and chaos, such as ancient Rome and the Ottomans;And if civilian officials intervene too much in the army, the army will be exhausted and lose its combat strength, such as the Song and Ming dynasties, which were repeatedly defeated and eventually destroyed.
In modern society, the imbalance in military-political relations has directly led to two world wars and numerous international conflicts.
In the book "The Military and the State: The Theory and Politics of Military-Government Relations", Huntington proposed a new model for achieving military-government balance through a historical and comparative investigation of ancient and modern political relations—the realization of civilian control through "military professionalism".
There are two main ways to achieve this goal:
The first is objective specialization, cultivating an organized and instrumental army, so that soldiers and officers can spontaneously obey the leadershipThe first is subjective specialization, which vigorously expands the authority of civilian officials and strictly controls the military through means such as separation of powers, checks and balances, first-class organization, and class access.
This model not only guarantees the combat effectiveness of the army, but also eliminates the possibility of military dictatorship and military autonomy through the organization and autonomy of the section.
The more professional the officer corpsThe more politically neutral and responsible they are, the more they will be able to defend national sovereignty and the lives, property, and freedom of their citizens.
Huntington's theory is a prophecy that really affects reality. Today, the border between the West and the military is becoming clearer and more solid, largely thanks to Huntington's theoretical contributions.
Prophecy 5:The culture is not up to par, the transformation of the country will not succeed
The uneven development of civilization has always been one of the most important problems of human civilization. There are often worlds of differences in affluence between countries.
Countless thinkers have devoted their lives to it. Some people think it's natural resources, some think it's about the political system, and some think it's about cultural values.
But the tendency of values theory to be generalized, coupled with the success of the transformation of many non-Western countries after World War II, has led to a gradual abandonment of the idea that culture is important.
Huntington has thought about democracy, transition and other institutional issues all his life, and in his later years he has returned to the "power of ideas".
Almost all of his later writings focused on the theme of "culture". In The Vital Role of Culture: How Values Influence Human Progress, Huntington points out:
The differences in the political, economic, and technological development of Eastern and Western societies, especiallyThe differences in the paths of national transformation ultimately point to the same "cultural passing line" - whether they agree with universal civilizational values such as freedom, democracy, and the rule of law.
There is no doubt that he categorically denied "culture."The view of "no high and low" points out the decisive role of "higher culture on advanced institutions": political preferences, value identification, and the choice of personal interests.
Since Huntington's death, this prophecy has been repeatedly validated: even if there is turmoil in developed countries due to immigration and far-left politics, they will soon be able to "hit the bottom" and reorganize the orderHowever, many developing countries, even if their economic and social systems are loosened, will return to pre-modern societies due to cultural and value barriers.
Today's society is once again at the crossroads of historical transformation, and where the political order will go determines the life and death of every ordinary person, rich and poor, and also depends on the wrestling between Chinese and Western ideas at present.
Compared to all kinds of "theory and practice detached."Huntington's thought is undoubtedly the most urgent, pertinent, and precious ideological resource for us in the era of transition.
Unfortunately, despite Huntington's profound thinking and strong penmanship, which has received more and more attention in recent years, the public's understanding of him is still limited to a few words.
Even those who have a slight understanding of Huntington's views are limited to one or two of his "popular non-representative" books, and are unable to collect all of his works.
For this reason, we sincerely recommend: the most complete collection of Samuel Huntington's works in the Chinese-speaking world so far (including exclusive):
Military and State: The Theory and Politics of Military-Civilian Relations", a first-class work on military-political relations, jointly recommended by Su Li, Wang Xiangsui and other scholars. It is resurrected after being out of print for many years and is sold exclusively by our store.
Political Order in Changing Society", which punctured the beautiful illusion that "economic growth brings democratic order", profoundly influenced the writings of the Chinese conservative group.
American Politics: Between Ideals and Reality", Huntington's masterpiece of political science, understanding the rift between American founding values and contemporary American politics, and exploring the possibilities of the future of the United States.
The Clash of Civilizations and the Reconstruction of the World Order", the earliest classic masterpiece that predicted the ebb and flow of Islamic terrorism and globalization, is an excellent personal guide for individuals to choose a civilized order.
Who Are Americans: Challenges to America's National Identity", the most profound insight into the unique national character of the United States to date, is regarded as an important reference by the political, economic, and cultural circles, and is the source of theories for rightist forces such as Trump.
The Important Role of Culture: How Values Affect Human Progress", to understand the division between the political and economic orders of China and the West, and the underlying logic of social transformation.
Interested friends can click on the product card below to collect the whole collection with one click. You can also collect more good books when you enter the store.