In 2023, China's real estate market will show a trend of "high, medium and low and stable". The current real estate market is still in an adjustment cycle. As the economy continues to recover, under the effect of a series of optimization and adjustment policies, some indicators of the real estate market continue to show signs of marginal improvement recently.
There has been a significant change in the relationship between supply and demand.
The first Politburo meeting held in July this year proposed to "adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market", which is a major judgment based on the stage of China's economic and social development and the development law of real estate itself, which is of far-reaching significance.
The main contradiction in China's housing development has shifted from a shortage of aggregates to a basic balance of aggregates, and structural supply is insufficient. The average number of houses per capita in urban households has exceeded one, and the new housing starts and sales have fallen to a certain extent and entered a balance cycle, which is a necessary process for the development of the real estate market to a certain stage. From a structural point of view, residents' demand for housing has shifted from "whether it is available" to "whether it is good or not", and the demand for good houses is still very strong, and there is a higher pursuit of improving living conditions. Therefore, there is still plenty of room for development in the real estate market. At the same time, the supply of affordable housing is insufficient, the housing prices in large cities are too high, and the housing difficulties of new citizens and young people still exist, and it is necessary to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing.
This year, the proportion of second-hand housing in China's commercial housing transaction structure has increased. In the first 11 months, the transaction volume of first-hand houses in the country declined, the transaction volume of second-hand houses increased, and the total of first-hand and second-hand houses achieved positive year-on-year growth, indicating that the demand for housing remained stable, and there was no obvious contraction, but the transaction structure changed, and second-hand housing transactions replaced some new housing transactions.
Pu Zhan, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that in the first 11 months of this year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses accounted for nearly 40% of the total transactions of new and second-hand houses, an increase of 10 percentage points over the same period last year, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in some major cities accounted for more than 50%. The increase in the proportion of second-hand housing transactions is mainly affected by the decline in the sales area of new houses from the short-term factors, and from the long-term factors, it is the inevitable trend of real estate entering the stage of development of incremental stock and heavy attention.
The contribution of real estate to the macro economy has shifted from being mainly driven by increments to being driven by incremental stocks. The increase in the proportion of second-hand housing transactions can drive the development of downstream industries such as home furnishings, home appliances and home decoration, and the operation of stock housing can drive the development of the intermediary rental property industry, and the characteristics of the real estate industry as a service industry are more obvious.
Take multiple measures to prevent risks and promote transformation.
Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, recently said that since the beginning of this year, the housing and urban-rural development department has taken active measures to increase confidence, prevent risks, and promote transformation.
All localities have implemented policies according to the city, and independently adjusted and optimized the real estate regulation and control mechanism. Many cities have also introduced measures such as tax exemption and exemption, increasing the loan amount of housing provident fund, and taking multiple measures to meet the reasonable housing needs of residents.
Prudently resolve the risk of debt default of real estate enterprises. In view of the risk of debt default of some real estate enterprises, the financial management department has issued a series of support policies, proposing to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, support real estate enterprises with tight capital chains to solve the problem of short-term cash flow constraints, promote their normal operation, and resolutely prevent the risk of debt default from exploding.
The promotion of guaranteed delivery of real estate is an important starting point for resolving risks in the real estate market and has played an important role in boosting market confidence. Since the beginning of this year, the construction and delivery of the guaranteed delivery project have been accelerated. According to the data, up to now, more than 2.68 million units of 3.5 million units have been delivered, with a delivery rate of more than 76%. The delivery of the building has also led to a significant increase in the area of housing completion, and the houses have been delivered one after another, which has played a positive role in resolving conflicts and disputes in the real estate field.
Build a new model of real estate development.
Looking forward to the work of the housing and real estate market in 2024, Ni Hong said that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, and adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market. Stabilize the real estate market, adhere to city-specific policies, one city, one policy, and precise policies, meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, optimize real estate policies, continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, ensuring people's livelihood and stability, properly handle the risks of real estate enterprises, and rectify the order of the real estate market.
Ni Hong said that it is necessary to build a new model of real estate development, establish a new mechanism for the linkage of "people, housing, land and money", improve the basic system of the whole life cycle of housing from development and construction to maintenance and use, implement the construction of the "three major projects", accelerate the solution of the housing problems of new citizens, young people and migrant workers, and make efforts to build good houses and create a new track in the housing field.
Speeding up the planning and construction of affordable housing, the transformation of urban villages, and the construction of the "three major projects" of public infrastructure construction are important measures launched according to the new situation of the real estate market.
Planning and construction of affordable housing is a major reform to improve the housing system and the best system, and to reconstruct the relationship between the market and security. Ni Hong introduced that the focus of this reform is to expand the new way of placing affordable housing, and ultimately to achieve the best basic needs, the market to meet the needs of multi-level housing, and the establishment of a housing system that combines rental and purchase. This requires the city party committees and young people to shoulder the main responsibility and solve the housing problems of the masses, especially the housing problems of new citizens and young people.
The transformation of urban villages is an important livelihood project to solve the problems of the people's urgency, difficulty, sorrow and longing. The focus is to eliminate safety risks and hidden dangers, improve the living environment, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and promote high-quality urban development.
The construction of public infrastructure is a major measure to coordinate development and security and improve urban resilience.
Ni Hong said that at present, China's real estate market is in a period of transition, and there is still solid support for sustainable development in the future. With the continuous implementation of various decisions and deployments, and with the gradual establishment of a new model of real estate development, we will be able to promote the transformation and upgrading of real estate, achieve high-quality development, and let the people live in better houses. (Reporter Kang Shu).
*:Economy**.