Zhitong Financial APP learned that on December 30, Cui Dongshu issued a document saying that the world's automobile sales from January to November 2023 will reach 80.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, but the gap from the high level in recent years is still 6%, and the gap level has narrowed. Due to the strong Chinese auto market, the world's auto sales gradually approached the peak in November, and the operation of the world auto industry improved significantly, resulting in the improvement of the sales of international auto companies. World vehicle sales in November 2023 reached 7.83 million units, up 13% year-on-year, and still slightly lower than the peak in November 2017, which is still slightly lower than the peak in November 2017 and at the second-highest level in history. In November 2023, the global share of Chinese automakers was 38%, and the cumulative share from January to November this year reached 33%.
From a global perspective, China's auto market recovered strongly in November, with Chinese automakers such as BYD (002594) and SAIC Motor (600104) recovering most prominently, while Asian groups represented by Toyota and Suzuki Kia still performed poorly. The international chip shortage in the past two years has had little impact on China's auto market, but has promoted the strong performance of China's auto exports, seizing the huge supply and demand gap in the international market and obtaining rare development opportunities. As a high-monopoly industry such as automotive chips, the supply-side contraction will bring great opportunities to the rise of China's ** chain, and the development of electrification has also led to the rapid decline of European car companies.
1. The trend of world automobile sales over the years
World vehicle sales in November 2023 reached 7.83 million units, up 13% year-on-year, and still 7% lower than November 2017 and the second-highest level on record.
After a continuous decline from 2018 to 2020, the world's major countries sold 81.35 million vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and the recovery performance after the epidemic is better. However, in 2022, there will be only 80.18 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, and only slightly higher than the sales volume in 2020.
World car sales from January to November 2023 reached 80.52 million units, an increase of 11% year-on-year, but the gap between the high level in recent years is still 6%, and the gap level narrowed, reaching the peak since 2018 in November.
The January-June 2023 trend is significantly lower than the sales level of a normal year in the previous calendar year, and the July-November period is better than the level of 2018-2022, mainly due to the improvement in sales volume due to factors such as the recovery of production. China's auto market was strong in November, and the world's auto market rose greatly in November.
2. The trend of world automobile sales over the years
The world car sales in the above table are mainly sales in 70 countries, and these 70 core countries have about 90 million units in 2019, which is basically a monthly sales volume.
There are 100 other countries that can only track annual sales, with a total of about 3 million units in 2022, compared to the 70 major countries with 80 million units, the total number of these smaller countries is about 3%, and the impact is not great.
In terms of global sales represented by major countries, global vehicle sales in 2018 decreased by 1%. For the first time since 2010, it fell into negative annual growth. In 2019, the sales volume of automobiles was 89.81 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, slightly better than the decline in 2008;Sales fell 13% in 2020;In 2021, it will rebound by 4% year-on-year;World sales in 2022 fell by 1% and performed poorly;In 2023, the world sales growth rate of 11% performed well, of which China increased by 11% and the rest of the world increased by 11%, which was mainly due to the temporary adjustment of the Chinese auto market at the beginning of this year.
3. China will maintain a leading position in sales in 2023
China's auto market has a huge influence on the world auto market. From 2016 to 2018, Chinese automobiles accounted for about 30% of the world's automobiles, which dropped to 29% in 2019, but still have an absolute advantage. In 2020-2021, the share rebounded to 32%. In 2022, China's share rose to 33%.
China's share will remain at 33% in 2023, of which the low at the beginning of the year is a normal reflection of the Spring Festival factor and the withdrawal of the preferential car purchase tax policy, followed by China's strong growth from May to November. This year, the market share in North America and Europe has rebounded across the board, while the market trend in the southern hemisphere is weak.
4. The market of developing countries has strengthened significantly
From the perspective of sales in various countries around the world, the current relatively good performance is the developed country market in Europe and the United States. The overall trend of China's auto market is poor. Russia's sales are actually less than China's exports, but Russia is also recovering, bringing China's independent high profits.
5. China's world market share trend
At the beginning of 2023, with the withdrawal of preferential policies, the share of Chinese car sales** fell to 29% in JanuaryFebruary-April warmed up to a good level of 32%;From May to July, it rebounded to 33%, and from August to November, the proportion of Chinese automobiles in the world rose to a high of 38%. In 2023, the world market will be further differentiated, and China's share will gradually recover. After the policy withdrawal, China's auto market will gradually recover in 2023, coupled with strong exports, so the market will continue to strengthen, and China's share of the world from August to November is relatively high.
6. Characteristics of monthly trend of automobile sales in various countries
Judging from the monthly sales growth trend of countries around the world, the trend of each month is basically balanced. However, due to the influence of seasonal factors, annual factors and many other factors, there is still a large contrast between the trends of various countries.
As China's auto market is still in the popularization period, showing a relatively strong trend at the beginning of the year and the end of the year, and a relatively soft trend in the summer, while the U.S. auto market is relatively weak at the beginning of the year and relatively stable in the middle of the year, but this year's Chinese auto market has not seen the spring pull characteristics, so the share has not increased much.
As the auto markets in Europe and the United States are facing an aggravated recession, the auto market is relatively sluggish, and the rest of the world's auto markets will be affected by the Fed's interest rate hike in 2023, while the Chinese auto market is still better.
7. The performance of the world's share of international groups
This chart shows the trend of global sales share. Judging from the current comprehensive performance of the group, Chinese automakers generally performed strongly. Due to the improvement of Asian car companies such as BYD, Geely, Changan, Chery, Toyota, Hyundai, and Suzuki, the production and sales of Asian car companies have recovered well. European automakers generally performed poorly.
8. The performance of the proportion of international groups in various places
China's own brands have increased their share of the world in an all-round way. BYD, Chery, Changan, SAIC and other independent performance is strong.
In addition to Tesla, the share of international brands has declined across the board. Toyota Group's performance was relatively weak, down 05 percentage points, and the share in the world in 2023 has reached 11The level is around 8%, but the overall performance of the Southeast Asian market is strong.
Volkswagen's performance was relatively stable, with a relatively flat share, but the Chinese market had a greater impact. The Volkswagen Group's global market has generally improved significantly, but the impact on the Chinese market is more obvious for the time being.
South Korea's Hyundai Motor was more stable, down 03 percentage points, and the share in the world in 2023 is 7At the level of about 7%, it performs well in other Asian markets, but in China, the product strength is not strong and weak.
The Honda Group is also down 0The performance of 3% was poor, and the performance of the Chinese market was weak.
Germany's Mercedes-Benz and BMW Group's performance was stable, the performance of the traditional luxury car market in China improved, and the Chinese market of luxury cars grew from a low base at the beginning of this year.
Suzuki's market performance is average, mainly in markets such as Japan.
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