From next year, nearly half of Chinese households may face three major challenges, so be prepared
Chinese residents are facing the "three major challenges" of declining housing**
Since the beginning of this year, housing in various large, medium and small cities in China has fluctuated. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities and regions increased by 2 month-on-month1% compared to 4 in January3%；The monthly growth has increased from 04% fell to -0 in December1%。This shows that the rate of housing in our country has slowed down significantly, and there are signs of continuing to decline. However, some Chinese are not optimistic about the economic situation in the coming year, and it is expected that more than half of them will face the "three major challenges" and should be mentally prepared. In particular, we face three major problems: the slowdown in economic growth,** and the dilemma of financial investment.
1. The impact of the slowdown in economic growth on China's economic development.
China Banking Research Institute, China Economic and Financial Outlook Report (2024) * In the fourth quarter of 2023, GDP will be reported at a rate of 5The growth rate is about 6%, and the growth rate for the whole year will reach 5Around 3%, which greatly exceeds our ** indicator. However, the IMF and Goldman Sachs are less optimistic, with GDP expected to fall to 46% and 48%, compared to the previous forecast of 45%。At the same time, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the central bank, also said that China's consumer price index has gradually recovered, food consumption will not continue to decline, and the consumer price index is expected to rise moderately in 2024. This means that in 2024, inflationary pressures will increase and growth will slow. This has had a big impact on many Chinese families:
First, the slow pace of growth will cause some companies to invest less and expand, which will lead to a decline in new jobs. With more than 10 million new graduates graduating from school next year, the job market will be even more competitive.
Second, the slowdown in growth will have a negative impact on corporate earnings, causing some companies to experience a decline in earnings. This has a knock-on effect on the overall earnings of employees, so that real wages cannot keep pace with inflation.
Eventually, recessions tend to create uncertainties, which can lead to anxiety about the future, which can lead to a reduction in large spending, resulting in a decline in domestic demand, which will have a greater impact on household incomes.
The reason for this is that there are enormous pressures and challenges in the process of slow economic development.
2. The impact of prices on China's economic development.
Judging by the CPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics for November, the ** of food decreased by 4 compared to the same period last year2%, a decrease of 02 percentage points. Among them, compared with the same period last year, pork *** 318%, the decline further widened;Eggs, edible oil, beef and mutton, poultry meat, aquatic products and other commodities are 11% to 105%, the decline has increased;At the same time, the ** of fresh vegetables also increased from 3 last month8% to 06%；The ** of fresh fruit rose by 27%, or 05 percentage points. As can be seen from the above figures, there are signs of a decline in the near future.
However, with the consumer price index set to moderate in 2024** and fierce competition in the labor market, many companies are laying off employees and cutting salaries, which also causes great difficulties for ordinary people.
First of all, although the people's livelihood has fallen, but if enterprises want to recover, there must be a process, if the wage increase cannot keep up with the increase in the **, the real purchasing power of the people will decline, which will affect their quality of life.
Second, the rise will further affect low-income people and further amplify social inequality. In addition, the increase often comes with higher education and health costs, which will make it impossible for some families to afford the corresponding expenses.
3. Difficulties in investment and management.
In the past, with the rapid development of China's economy and society, China's residential construction has been well developed to a certain extent. People generally see real estate as an investment with high stability and long-term value. Especially in developed cities, the growing demand has contributed to the rise of housing **. At the same time, it has also spawned a large number of speculative funds, and many people are eager to sell their houses in a short period of time in order to obtain higher returns, resulting in a "house speculation fever" in some places.
However, as the property market has entered a cycle of adjustment, it is already difficult to rely on real estate to maintain its wealth growth. Nearly 40 per cent of households were directly affected by this change. According to the data, nearly 49% of Americans have more than two homes. Those who plan to sell their second home will change the status quo, but they will be in more trouble.
In the past, many investors relied on "rent-to-support loans" to sublease surplus properties and obtain rental income to pay their mortgages. However, in many large cities, the introduction of property taxes, coupled with increasingly precarious jobs and fewer tenants, has made this policy difficult to implement in many large cities. Against this backdrop, investors must rethink how they change their investment strategies and seek alternative ways to invest in order to gain more wealth. However, many people encounter many problems in investment and financial management, such as lack of investment and financial knowledge, lack of time and experience.
Overall, Chinese residents face "three major challenges", including a slowdown in economic growth,** and financial and financial problems. Therefore, residents should take precautions, formulate appropriate financial plans, and take the initiative to explore other investment channels to enhance the resilience of the country's economy and resist risks.