Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that Dongguan ** released a research report saying that due to the low base year-on-year, the online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 27 of the total retail sales of consumer goods in November5%, an increase of 08 percentage points, a record high. The bank believes that the domestic e-commerce parts market will maintain a very low profit margin for a long time, and the valuation of express stocks will continue to be extremely low in 2023.
It is recommended to pay attention to:SF 002352 Holdings, which has a low dependence on upstream and strong bargaining power, has a strong bargaining powerSZ), No. 1 project, customer housekeeper and other work results, the volume and price continue to increase YTO Express (600233SH), which is deeply bound to the rookie network Shentong Express (002468sz)。
Events:The Post Bureau released the express delivery development report and the situation of the postal industry from January to November 2023.
Dongguan**Reviews are as follows:
In November, the volume of express shipments increased by 31% year-on-year9%。
According to the statistics of the State Post Bureau, from January to November 2023, the total volume of express delivery business has been completed 1188200 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 186%, of which the volume of express delivery business completed in November was 136400 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 319%;From January to November, the industry's express business revenue totaled 10,885200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 137%, of which the express business revenue in November was 1241400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 269%。The growth rate of express delivery volume increased in November, or was affected by the low base of the same period last year. The industry's average revenue per ticket in November was 910 yuan, a decrease of 001 yuan, down 378%。The single ticket fell slightly month-on-month, which is in line with the bank's previous judgment that it is difficult to improve the peak shaving and valley filling on Double 11. The average express delivery in key areas has increased significantly, of which the average express delivery in Jinhua (Yiwu) City is 268 yuan, an increase of 008 yuan;Guangzhou Express** about 803 yuan, an increase of 047 yuan.
Cost-effective consumption is prevalent, and the penetration rate of online shopping has reached a new high.
In November 2023, the total consumption of social zero will be 4,250.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101%。Online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 27% of total retail sales of consumer goods in November5%, an increase of 08 percentage points, a record high. The bank believes that the economic recovery in 2023 will be less than expected, the view of cost-effective consumption will gradually become the mainstream, and the e-commerce platform will hold high the banner of low prices, which is expected to attract more consumption to turn online, and it is still optimistic that the growth of online consumption will drive the growth of express demand in the long run.
Faucet competition may intensify.
Judging from the data of listed companies, in November 2023, the business volume of SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Yuantong Express will be 117.5 billion pieces, 193 billion pieces, 180.2 billion pieces, 216.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase92%。The volume of express leading pieces increased significantly year-on-year, and the volume of SF Express excluding Feng Net increased by 24% year-on-year08%。The average ticket income of express delivery companies was 1562 yuan, 238 yuan, 220 yuan, 246 yuan, the average income of Tongda tickets increased month-on-month, and the unit price of SF Express excluding Fengwang decreased by 417%。In terms of market share, from January to November 2023, the express and parcel service brand concentration index CR8 is 840, down 0. from January to October1。In November, the industry concentration declined slightly, the share of SF Express increased slightly, the share of Tongda Express declined, and the competition among industry leaders may intensify.
Investment Strategy:Affected by the low base year-on-year, the volume of express delivery in November increased by 31 year-on-year9%, but the fierce market competition and the double eleven peak cutting and valley filling, resulting in difficulties in raising prices in the peak season. Online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 27% of total retail sales of consumer goods in November5%, an increase from the previous month. Since 2023, the penetration rate of online shopping in China has remained high, and the habit of online consumption has been formed. From a long-term perspective, cost-effective consumption is popular, consumption is downgraded but the consumption frequency has increased under the stimulus of low prices, and in 2023, e-commerce platforms will successfully establish a low-price mentality to attract online consumption, and there is a long-term growth trend in express delivery demand.
In the context of stricter supervision, the bank believes that the domestic e-commerce parts market will maintain a very low profit margin for a long time, and the valuation of express stocks will continue to be extremely low in 2023.
Risk Warning:1) Intensified competition in the industry;2) changes in industry policies;3) Low-price competition of upstream e-commerce platforms may limit the ability of express delivery companies to raise prices4) Macroeconomic fluctuations may have an impact on residents' willingness to consume, thereby reducing the demand for online shopping express delivery5) Risks such as slow progress at sea.