Key takeaways. In 2024, the promotion of new industrialization in various places will show a good trend of a hundred flowers blooming, various production factors will continue to gather in entities, a number of cities that grasp the opportunity will stand out, and more new forms and models may accelerate the emergence. At the same time, to promote new industrialization, it is also necessary to pay attention to the problems of poor continuity of new and old kinetic energy, mismatch of institutional mechanisms, and insufficient role of various market players.
Zhishuo 2024 (3) CCID Research Institute New Industrialization Situation Analysis Research Group.
From September 22 to 23, 2023, the National Conference on the Promotion of New Industrialization was held to make comprehensive arrangements for accelerating the promotion of new industrialization in the new era and new journey. Looking forward to 2024, the promotion of new industrialization in various places will show a good trend of a hundred flowers blooming, various production factors will continue to gather in entities, a number of cities that grasp the opportunity will stand out, and more new forms and models may accelerate the emergence. However, at the same time, it is also urgent to accelerate the identification and cultivation of new kinetic energy industries, improve the design of systems and mechanisms, stimulate the vitality of various market players, strengthen the correct international voice, etc., and come up with more powerful policy measures to promote new breakthroughs in new industrialization.
1. Basic judgment on the situation in 2024.
1) The clarion call to promote new industrialization has been sounded, and all localities will implement the decisions and arrangements of the conference.
Since the convening of the National Conference on the Promotion of New Industrialization, all regions and departments have actively implemented the spirit of the important instructions of the General Secretary and the spirit of the conference, and taken multiple measures to promote new industrialization. As of November 2023, 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) have successively held new industrialization promotion conferences to strengthen strategic deployment in building advanced manufacturing clusters, promoting digital transformation in an all-round way, promoting green and low-carbon industrial development, and exploring high-quality industrial development paths. Looking forward to 2024, all localities will deeply explore the characteristics of the times and their own realities. First, the new industrialization boom will penetrate and spread from the provincial level to the prefecture and city level. At present, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Zhangjiakou, Pingxiang and other prefecture-level cities have successively held new industrialization promotion conferences. **In 2024, other cities and counties will also fully implement the spirit of the National Conference on the Promotion of New Industrialization, accelerate the implementation of specific deployments of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and successively study and promote the future work of new industrialization, forming a trend of resonance at the same frequency and linkage up and down. Second, all localities will deeply explore the development path of new industrialization with characteristics and diversification. Shanghai, Chengdu, Quanzhou and other places have creatively implemented the major policies and decision-making arrangements, and opened up a new road of industrialization with their own characteristics on the basis of practice, which has played a good demonstration and driving effect. In the future, other cities will further base themselves on their own resource endowments and development realities, and plan characteristic development paths according to local conditions.
2) The upsurge of a hundred flowers to promote new industrialization has become a trend, and production factors such as capital, talents, and data will accelerate the convergence of the real economy.
At present, all localities are actively planning their positioning in the national game of chess, intensively preparing for the implementation of the first document, accelerating the recombination and continuous upgrading of production factors, and realizing the leap of production function. Looking forward to 2024, driven by the good atmosphere, various factors of production will accelerate the influx of various production factors into the real economy, and the industrial development ecology will be further strengthened. First, the strong supply of various factors to the real economy will be accelerated. All localities will deepen the coordination of ministries and provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), strengthen policy linkage, guide all kinds of funds to converge to the real economy, attract high-level talents to flow to the manufacturing industry, promote the deep integration of digital technology and the real economy, release the effect of factor agglomeration and restructuring and optimization, and promote the manufacturing industry to achieve quality, efficiency and power change. The second is to continuously strengthen the deep integration of innovation chain, industrial chain, capital chain and talent chain. All localities will accelerate the deployment of the innovation chain around the industrial chain, lay out the industrial chain around the innovation chain, and then continuously improve the capital chain and talent chain, promote the integrated deployment and coupling and mutual promotion of the industrial chain, innovation chain, capital chain and talent chain, and form an industrial ecosystem of "basic research-application transformation-industrial innovation-capital leverage-talent support" that is effectively connected, coordinated and developed.
3) To seize the major development opportunities of new industrialization, the leading regions will continue to accelerate the lead, and the late-developing regions are also likely to take advantage of the momentum and stand out.
The core of new industrialization is industrial upgrading, and seizing the historical opportunity of the industrial revolution and completing the industrial leap is the key for a country and region to achieve catch-up development. The development process of Shanghai, Shenzhen and other pioneer regions shows that only by continuously improving the level of industrialization can we build a solid material foundation, technical support and spiritual power for modernization, and can we drive the fundamental change of traditional society to modern society. Looking forward to 2024, the major historical opportunities brought by new industrialization may change the economic development pattern among cities across the country. First, the new industrialization may enable the leading regions to shape the leading edge of "the strong and the strong". In-depth promotion of new industrialization is an important starting point for maintaining a leading position in competition. In the next step, some key regions may take the lead by taking the lead in promoting the high-end of traditional industries, developing and expanding strategic emerging industries, and cultivating future industries with forward-looking layouts, so as to shape new advantages for development. Second, late-developing regions are likely to enter the upward channel of accelerated growth and stand out. The practice of catching up with cities such as Hefei and Chengdu shows that late-developing regions can also catch up and surpass against the trend by seizing the opportunities of technological progress and industrial transfer, and learning from the experience and achievements of institutional innovation. Late-developing areas can use the means of recruiting large and strong, chain development, chain group coordination, and creating ecology to create late-mover advantages, reshape the industrial economic geography, and realize the leapfrog development of new industrialization.
4) A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation represented by artificial intelligence will deeply empower new industrialization, and may catalyze the emergence of a number of new formats, new models and new industries.
At present, global scientific and technological innovation is unprecedentedly intensive, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is evolving in depth, and artificial intelligence has become a strategic technology leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation. Looking forward to 2024, the application of the achievements of the new round of scientific and technological revolution in R&D, design, manufacturing and other fields will continue to be generalized and deepened, comprehensively and deeply empowering new industrialization, and catalyzing the emergence of a number of new formats, new models and new industries. First, the deep integration of general artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing will enter the stage of acceleration. According to Gar Tner**, by 2026, more than 80% of enterprises will use generative AI or deploy it in production to support generative AI applications, up from less than 5% at the start of 2023. It is foreseeable that the process of putting large models into the industrial field will be greatly accelerated, especially in the fields of automobiles, military industry, chip manufacturing, biomanufacturing, robotics and traditional manufacturing, and the application of generative artificial intelligence will be accelerated. Second, the development energy of new formats, new models and new industries has been continuously accumulated and enhanced. The new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation and the resulting changes in production methods, development models, and enterprise forms will jointly drive the emergence of new formats, new models and new industries, promote the extension and development of traditional manufacturing models to intelligent manufacturing, green manufacturing, and service-oriented manufacturing, and constantly open up more new fields and new tracks, enhance development momentum and vitality, and promote the continuous improvement of China's economy in the future.
Second, several issues that need attention.
1) China's steady economic growth will still face multiple pressures, and the poor continuity of new and old kinetic energy may hinder the recovery of the industrial economy.
In recent years, various departments across the country have successively launched a series of "stable growth" policy measures to fully support the strengthening and optimization of the real economy. With the promotion of policies and the joint efforts of all sectors of the industry, in the first three quarters of 2023, a number of new products in line with the green and low-carbon trend such as the "new three" of China's foreign trade have grown rapidly, the operation of the industrial economy has stabilized and improved, and the ability of the real economy to resist the impact of domestic and foreign uncertainties has been enhanced, forming a strong support for the continuous recovery of the national economy. However, at present, China is in a critical period of transformation of old and new kinetic energy, and will still face many difficulties and challenges in the future. To promote new industrialization in the new era, it is necessary to accelerate the selection of a number of "seedlings" of new kinetic energy industries through a deep understanding and grasp of the laws of industrialization development, shorten the painful period of conversion of new and old kinetic energy, and continuously gather and enhance new kinetic energy and new advantages, so as to provide strong support for promoting the overall improvement of economic operation.
2) The new type of industrialization needs to give full play to the role of new production factors and promote the improvement of the system and mechanism as soon as possible.
With the continuous acceleration of China's industrial upgrading, the role of traditional production factors such as general labor and land in promoting industrial development has gradually declined. At the same time, new factors of production such as data and computing power are playing an increasingly significant role in economic development, which is reshaping the production mode and industrial form of the manufacturing industry. To promote new industrialization, we must actively adapt to the latest trends of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and further give full play to the role of data as a new factor of production in promoting industrial development. In the future, all localities should further coordinate the promotion of new industrialization technology innovation and institutional innovation, explore policy support and regulatory tools to adapt to the development of new technologies and new business formats, promote the continuous optimization of industrial policy implementation methods, adapt measures to local conditions, implement policies according to industry and dislocation development, and continuously improve the new industrialization policy system.
3) New industrialization should fully stimulate the development vitality of various market entities, and pay close attention to the trend of "large-scale relocation" of enterprises.
In recent years, the pattern and competition logic of the global industrial chain have undergone great changes, showing a development trend of regionalization, localization and short chain. Under the influence of factors such as cost and international environment, many enterprises in China, especially foreign-funded enterprises, have accelerated their transfer to developing countries such as Southeast Asia and Latin America, and some industrial fields have even shown a tendency of "loss before upgrading", which poses a challenge to the integrity and security of the manufacturing industrial system. To promote new industrialization, it is necessary to accurately grasp the new situation of the global industrial chain, conform to the trend of changes in the logic of industrial operation, build a unified national market to stimulate the vitality of different types of enterprises, promote the complementary advantages and competitive development of various market players, make full use of the two resources of the domestic and international markets, win the initiative and seize the opportunity in the global industrial chain chain change, and cultivate and build new advantages in industrial competition under new open conditions.
4) New industrialization may arouse international attention, and it is urgent to strengthen multi-angle and all-round positive interpretation.
The National Conference on the Promotion of New Industrialization is the first national conference held with the theme of new industrialization, and it has made a comprehensive deployment for accelerating the promotion of new industrialization in the new era and new journey. The international coverage, cognition and understanding of new industrialization will have an important impact on the spread and practice of new industrialization on a global scale. There are many differences between the new industrialization and the Western industrialization path, due to the objective stereotypes and cognitive biases, the international ** for the new industrialization may have a single cognitive perspective.
1. Ignoring common connections and one-sided misunderstandings. To promote new industrialization, it is necessary to adapt to the changes in the focus and attitude of all countries in the world, accelerate the construction of its own communication channels, enhance the international discourse, highlight the universal value of new industrialization with vivid examples, and promote the correct and complete understanding of new industrialization by the international community.
3. Countermeasures and suggestions that should be taken.
1) Pay more attention to the development of the manufacturing industry in terms of ideology and understanding, and actively create a good atmosphere conducive to the development of the real economy.
To promote new industrialization, all localities must unswervingly adhere to the development of the real economy, unswervingly build a solid manufacturing industry, firmly control the fate of China's development and progress in their own hands, and build a strong material and technological foundation for Chinese-style modernization. To accelerate the optimization and upgrading of the industrial system, we must not only pay close attention to the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, increase policy support for enterprise equipment renewal and technological transformation projects, but also actively cultivate and expand strategic emerging industries, implement innovation incentive policies and support and safeguard measures, and plan a number of future industries in a forward-looking manner to accelerate the cultivation of new kinetic energy.
2) In the direction of development, we will give more prominence to our characteristic advantages, and continue to explore new industrialization models and paths that are in line with the actual conditions of various places.
To promote new industrialization, it is necessary to correctly handle the relationship between top-level design and local practice and exploration, not only to do a good job in the overall layout of the national game of chess, to guide industrial development with the strategy of the main functional zone, but also to fully mobilize local enthusiasm and initiative, and guide all localities to build industrial characteristics based on their own conditions and industrial foundations, and form a regional industrial layout with complementary advantages and high-quality development. It is necessary to give full play to the role of high-tech zones, economic development zones and other parks in the development of advanced manufacturing, self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, and the expansion of opening up to the outside world, and support all localities to innovate and explore the development model and practice path of new industrialization.
3) Pay more attention to reform and innovation in the system and mechanism, and further strengthen the support and guarantee of various elements for new industrialization.
The increase in production efficiency brought about by institutional innovation is no less than that of major technological advances. To promote new industrialization, it is necessary to deepen the reform and innovation of systems and mechanisms, and form long-term institutional arrangements to serve the real economy and prevent "shifting from real to virtual". It is necessary to actively create a market-oriented, law-based, and international first-class business environment, and continue to shape an industrial ecology in which state-owned enterprises dare to work, private enterprises dare to enter, and foreign enterprises dare to invest. It is necessary to strengthen the policy orientation focusing on advanced manufacturing, promote the agglomeration of various policies and various elements to the real economy, especially the manufacturing industry, and promote the formation of a virtuous circle of efficient coordination of "science and technology-industry-finance-education-talent".
4) Pay more attention to overall planning and coordination in the organization and implementation, and gather a strong synergy to promote new industrialization.
Promoting new industrialization is a systematic project, involving all aspects of economic and social development, and requires comprehensive, systematic and long-term strategic deployment and cross-field, cross-industry and cross-departmental coordination at the national level. It is necessary to strengthen the overall planning of the promotion of key industrial chains, give full play to the institutional advantages of the new first-class system, and unite the joint efforts to tackle key problems. It is necessary to strengthen the coordination and linkage of industrial policies between the central and local, inter-departmental and regional governments, and improve the level of industrial collaborative governance and service. Support strategic cooperation and strong alliances between enterprises, and promote the role of leading enterprises to play the role of "head goose", and drive the integration and development of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain.