After more than 21 months of fierce fighting, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is now gradually fading in the shadow of the war in the Middle East.
The much-hyped ** operation was fragmented and achieved little as expected, while also costing the Allies billions of dollars in military support. Ukraine is already in trouble, and internal divisions are growing.
It will be a long and difficult winter, and Ukraine is struggling on many fronts.
Russia intensifies its offensive everywhere
Last year's Operation Lightning** was a resounding success, recovering much territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, where Ukraine and its Western allies were preparing for a major counterattack for much of early 2023.
Military observers believe that this is a decisive operation to regain Ukraine's controlled territories, which could even threaten the Crimean peninsula, which has been under Russian control since the controversial referendum in 2014.
However, the large-scale ** launched by Ukraine in June has achieved little in the face of Russia's very strong defensive line, the war has basically reached a stalemate, a new cold wave has returned, and the fighting season is coming to an end.
As bad weather sets in, the fighting could stop, as evidenced by the deadly winter storm that ravaged the region last week.
Ukraine's power grid remains fragile and Russia is likely to target Russia's energy infrastructure again after launching its largest drone attack on Ukraine since the start of the conflict.
Two fronts have emerged in recent weeks.
In the east, a battle is taking place for the small city of Avdiivka, which Russia seems to want to win at all costs as it tries to expand its control over the industrial region of Donbass.
The Ukrainian side said that the Russians tried to encircle the city, but the Wehrmacht was still "holding its ground."
One sign of the intensification of the conflict is that Russia has suddenly intensified its offensive everywhere with very strong forces, causing Ukraine to lose ground on the front lines.
Faced with the risk of falling into hot spots such as Avdiivka, **mut or Kupyansk, Zelensky, after inspecting the front line, called for the rapid construction of fortifications in key areas, especially in eastern Ukraine, under pressure from the Russian army.
There are many reasons why the conflict has stalled, including disagreement and lack of urgency among Ukraine's allies, which means that some vital supplies have been lost or arrived too late for an effective counterattack.
However, the lack of adequate air support is the biggest obstacle, as Ukraine's limited air force is completely crushed by Russia. If Ukrainian forces do not have air protection, they will not be able to do an effective offensive on flat terrain.
Ukrainian serviceman Yurash said that an important goal is still being achieved: to deplete Russia's military forces. He noted that Ukraine successfully broke the Russian blockade of the Black Sea by attacking the country's navy in southern Russia and on the Crimean peninsula this summer.
"We know that conflict doesn't happen easily or quickly," Yurash said. But we have shown the world that even the terrible Russian war machine can be stopped, and we can force it to suffer terrible losses. ”
Of course, both Russia and Ukraine claim heavy losses in each other's personnel, but do not report their own **.
Yurash said the latest Dnieper offensive came as a surprise to the Russians and showed that Ukraine had not yet exhausted "tricks and ideas" in defeating Russia.
Without assistance, Ukraine will soon collapse
For most of the conflict, Ukraine has been urging its Western allies to expand and accelerate military assistance, otherwise the Russia-Ukraine war would have ended long ago.
But with concerns about growing conflict fatigue in Europe and U.S. political wrangling, the aid has been under siege for months and now faces a threat that is more realistic: another conflict that has captured global attention.
The war in Gaza is coming at a terrible time for Ukraine. It sucks a lot of political oxygen out of the room. No matter how you divide it, there is always competition for war resources.
The United States provides military assistance to Israel and Ukraine, but the outbreak of a new war has raised concerns about whether artillery shells or anti-aircraft missiles originally intended to be sent to Ukraine will be transferred to Kyiv or Israel.
Aid to both countries faces uncertainty due to deep divisions in the US Congress, while Ukraine faces an inability to deliver on EU commitments.
In an effort to ensure that Ukraine remains a top priority for the United States, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made a surprise visit to Ukraine last month, calling the fighting in Ukraine "a marathon, not a sprint" and announcing $100 million worth of new military aid.
But Ukraine has no illusions.
Tactically, shifting attention from Ukraine to Israel would make Ukraine's situation even more difficult, as the Russia-Ukraine war is no longer the hottest issue on the planet.
There is more focus on Israel, and that is where U.S. aid is a priority.
In a meeting with reporters last month, Zelenskyy acknowledged that the world's attention had turned to the Middle East and said that Ukraine had lost its place on the national agenda, so there was no room for error. In fact, this could be "fatal" for Ukraine.
We must not let people forget the ...... of war hereAttention equals help," Zelensky said in an interview.
More recently, on December 6, more "bad news" came from Ukraine, when the U.S. Senate rejected the Ukraine and Israel aid bill because it lacked provisions to strengthen the security of the U.S. southern border. The conflict within the United States has raised fears that the impasse in budget approval could continue into 2024.
Tensions and divisions within Ukraine are growing
Zelensky seems to have disagreements with the top general, Chief of the General Staff Zaluzhny, which has exacerbated Ukraine's troubles.
Zaluzhny expressed the view shared by many in Ukraine and in the West that the conflict is at an impasse and "most likely there will be no progress." ”
Immediately afterward, Zelensky hurriedly refuted Zaluzhny's remarks, denying that the conflict had reached an impasse.
Zelensky's allies openly criticized Zaluzhny's leadership in the conflict, and a congressman launched a harsh criticism on social networks, accusing him of not having a credible plan on how to win and demanding Zaluzhny's resignation.
Zelenskyy has also been criticized for expressing opposition to holding next year's ** elections amid ongoing fighting, and the mayor of the capital, Kyiv, Klitschko, even said last week that Ukraine is paying the price for Zelensky's mistakes.
He believes that Zelensky is "getting more and more **and**".
Therefore, the ** of General Zaluzhny may well have serious consequences for Zelensky.
Ukrainian analyst Feshchenko said: "Zaluzhny is the second most powerful faction in Ukraine, and Zelensky's team sees him as a potential adversary. And now they seem to want to blame the Chief of the General Staff for the problems at the front. ”
However, given Zelensky's popularity in the military and society, his dismissal or resignation could have very unforeseen consequences, including weakening Zelensky's own position.
Zelensky's "factual diagnosis" of the situation at the front caused a lot of emotions in Ukraine.
A rare public criticism from Zelensky's office because these comments are being treated 'too harshly' in the West, which could create problematic ...... for UkraineFor many Ukrainians, these criticisms are like a 'basin of cold water'.
It has helped many Ukrainians move away from exaggerated and unrealistic expectations that the conflict is coming to an end.