While the international community is concerned about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine is also quietly changing. The current situation in Ukraine is not optimistic, with only one last US aid left, and there are signs of chaos in Ukraine. All this seems to indicate that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may usher in a dramatic end.
Since the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine has relied on assistance from the United States and the West to maintain its combat effectiveness. However, U.S. support seems to be approaching its limit. Recently, Ukraine's ** Zelensky visited the United States and won $200 million in military aid. But U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's warning suggests that if the U.S. Congress does not agree to additional aid funding, it could be the last U.S. aid to Ukraine.
The loss of U.S. military assistance could be fatal for Ukraine. Ukrainian front-line forces have scaled back their military operations due to lack of foreign aid and have had to implement a defensive strategy on the southeastern front. In contrast, the atmosphere of the Russian army is high, not only successfully blocking the Ukrainian army's multiple offensives, but also increasing the offensive on the eastern front in an attempt to encircle the strategic town of Avdeyevka.
Along with the ** on the front line and the lack of supplies, there has also been turmoil in Ukraine. The policy of compulsory conscription has met with strong opposition from the people, and the brutal behavior of the relevant ** has aroused public outrage. The survey shows that the Ukrainian people's trust in Zelensky and ** has dropped sharply, which reflects the weariness and dissatisfaction with the war at home.
Zelensky's move has sparked more controversy at home. In August this year, he fired a group of conscription workers for bribery and conscription, exposing corruption in the country. At the same time, the contradictions between Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Zaluzhny, are deepening. Zelensky's attempt to elevate Zaluzhny by establishing direct contact with top generals shows his intention to control the command of the army.
Zaluzhny is seen as a possible alternative leadership candidate, which further exacerbates tensions within the country. According to Russian intelligence**, NATO foreign ministers have discussed relevant candidates, among which Zaluzhny is a strong contender. Zelenskyy's warning to Zaluzhny against interfering in politics reflects his concerns about his position.
On the battlefield, the Ukrainian army is considering a change in combat strategy. There are reports that the Ukrainian army plans to no longer choose ** or defense, but to eliminate the living forces of the Russian army to the maximum extent at the minimum cost. Although the Ukrainian army still has a certain capacity, the uncertainty of Western assistance makes future plans full of uncertainties.
The confidence of the United States and the West in Ukraine does not seem to be strong. At present, they have begun to assess the future development trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A senior US military officer pointed out that without the assistance of the United States and NATO countries, the Ukrainian army could lose next summer.
Against this background, Ukraine is facing a dual challenge: a reduction in external aid and an increase in internal unrest. The complicated relationship between the United States and Israel makes Ukraine's situation even more difficult. Zelensky must be aware of this, otherwise it may face an even more grim end. The future of the Russia-Ukraine war is uncertain, but one thing is for sure – the challenges facing Ukraine are becoming increasingly complex.
[Author's Comments].
The United States may be close to the last military aid to Ukraine, which is undoubtedly a major blow to Ukraine. Ukraine has long relied on Western assistance, especially from the United States, to support its military operations in the conflict with Russia. If this aid stops, Ukraine may face more challenges and dilemmas.
The current internal situation in Ukraine is also not optimistic. Widespread conscription campaigns and the prolongation of the war have led to discontent and instability in the country. Fatigue from the war and distrust of the population and its military operations are growing. This internal turmoil has exacerbated Ukraine's military and political vulnerability.
To complicate matters further, the contradictions within Ukraine and the army are also becoming increasingly prominent. The contradictions between Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Zaluzhny, could further weaken the cohesion and combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army. Internal struggles and power struggles may lead to Ukraine's inability to effectively unify and coordinate its military operations against Russia.
More broadly, the continued support of Ukraine by the United States and Western countries is largely determined by their own strategic interests and domestic political dynamics. The United States and Western countries may be reassessing their investment and the rewards they can reap in this conflict. With the redistribution of attention and resources, Ukraine may find itself in a more isolated and difficult position.