It is rare for a hotel group to be successfully listed on the main board, and compared with the Hong Kong stock market or going overseas to complete the dream of listing, the hotel company that has landed on the main board of the SSAW is particularly dazzling in the capital market. However, this lucky ** has not made shareholders happy in the near future. Harsh voices such as "* concentration camps" and "quantitative short scythe stocks" are full of stock reviews. On the other hand, Junting's fundamentals and business logic have indeed made many investors say they can't understand it.
According to public information, SSAW Hotel was established in 2007. According to its third-quarter financial report, as of September 30, 2023, SSAW Group has a total of 213 hotels, including 63 Junting, 113 Narada and 37 Jinglan. Among them, Junlan and Jinglan were acquiredThat is to say, during the 16 years since its establishment, Junting has only opened 63 stores, almost maintaining a growth rate of 4 stores per year.
This kind of store opening speed is placed in the entire domestic hotel industry, and it is not an exaggeration to call it a "snail speed". But even so, this issue price is only 12The ** of 24 yuan was once forced to 60 yuan last year, which can be called a new generation of demon stocks in the tourism industry, with many fans. But unfortunately, as of December 12th, SSAW Boutique Hotel ***2345 yuan, compared with the highest point of the year, has been cut in half. Some commentators said that judging from the time-sharing delivery order, Junting is an obvious ticket for quantitative trading, and it is continuing to short borrow and lend securities. Although there are currently mysterious funds in the fight to deal with the lock-up position, unless the financial strength is strong, it still can't stop the shorts. Some people also consider it from the perspective of popularity, thinking that the popularity brought by Junting's 5% increase is higher than the popularity value of many **five boards, which is obviously a **-based ticket. However, I won't comment on the truth for the time being, after all, it is difficult to make a real judgment on the purely numerical dimension, and it is impossible to determine that it is quantified. However, compared with Hong Kong stocks, the mainland market is indeed the most popular, and I like to speculate on small-cap stocks. At the same time, there are not many options for hotel standards in the A** field. And the quantitative and institutional grouping, for the first-class disk, does have an oppressive harvesting force. In fact, looking at the top ten circulating shareholders of SSAW Boutique Hotel, there are obvious signs of public offering. As of March 31, 2022, 9 of the top 10 circulating shareholders of SSAW Hotel are from public offerings, including China Post, Huatai Berry, Caitong, Huaan, Bank of Communications, Fuguo and many other ** companies. 
The most well-known is the Bank of Communications Trend Mix, which ranks 9th, and the manager Yang Jinjin has become famous in the past two years and is known as the most cutting-edge manager who can "draw lines", which undoubtedly gives more institutions a reason to even hold together. However, once all kinds of capital retreat, it will also stage the tragedy of the collapse of the myth of the group. In fact, looking at Junting as a whole, it is currently an obvious inverted V-shape. As of September 30, 2023, this public offering ** group has not changed. Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Congbo and Shi Chenning are Junting executives, and the remaining 8 are still public offerings, but compared with last year, there has been a reshuffle, and there will never be only one trick in the way of play. On the other hand, the overall business model of SSAW Pavilion is also "quite peculiar" compared to other hotels. Before the acquisition of Junlan, Junting did not do franchise and always adhered to the self-operated model. At the beginning of its IPO, Wu Qiyuan, the founder of Junting, said in an interview that the investment logic of Junting is differentiation. "We are not engaged in industrial replication hotels, nor do we touch large and complete star-rated standard hotels. Instead, through select cities and properties, with the support of reasonable profit data, directly operated stores are opened. "That is, to do limited service non-standard mid-to-high-end hotels. As a result, its IPO in 2021 raised 2200 million funds were used to expand directly operated stores, trying to tell the story of direct sales all the time. But what everyone didn't expect was that in 2022, Junting suddenly changed the use of this fund and used it to acquire the "Junlan" series of trademarks and related companies, costing 1400 million. And SSAW Hotel and Narada itself are of the same root. Wu Qiyuan founded Narada Hotel Management Company in 1997 and SSAW Hotel in 2007, and the two achieved integrated development after 2009. Before Junting went public, in order to tell a different story of the direct sales model, Wu Qiyuan cut off Junlan. Because although Narada has many hotel assets, most of them have a low return on investment, Wu Qiyuan can be regarded as getting rid of the burden in advance and moving forward lightly. As a result, after the fundraising was successful, Junlan was bought back, and this wave of paradoxical operations is indeed easy for the public to think about. And at that time, Junlan and Jinglan were stretched thin in cash flow, and one lost money for three consecutive years. It is equivalent to Junting, which claims to be self-operated, and spent money to buy back a bunch of non-performing assets after the IPO. And these non-performing assets still belonged to Wu Qiyuan originally, but they were cut off for listing. Wu Qiyuan went around and around, which is equivalent to not only packaging his original form of hotel group to be listed, but also taking out hundreds of millions of dollars from the pockets of shareholders. In the announcement of SSAW Hotel that year, the explanation of this behavior was also relatively empty, saying that "in view of the relatively long construction and return cycle of the original fund-raising and investment projects, in order to further improve the efficiency of the use of raised funds, improve the company's ability to resist risks, and quickly adapt to the complex and changeable market demand." "Could it be that you have just been successfully listed, and you don't recognize the self-operated story you told at the beginning?Isn't this a slap yourself in the face?In fact, Junting's original self-management model does not make sense. The chain industry relies on scale to leverage efficiency and revenue, which is already a constant model that cannot be broken. This is also the essential reason why the valuation of Mixue Bingcheng is higher than that of Heytea, and Heytea has also recently opened up to join. The entire hotel industry usually uses the number of rooms to judge the size of the brand. Even the internal management of SSAW realized this problem very early. Wu Qiyuan said: "If you have good ideas, but if you don't quickly occupy the market, you will be replaced by others, or even eliminated." Gan Shenghong, vice president of Junting, also said that Junting's advantage is to fight steadily, and its disadvantage is also to fight steadily. But even so, after Junting acquired Junlan, it will issue an additional 51.7 billion, and said that most of the funds were used for the expansion of directly operated stores. But it is clear which is faster and which is slower than the franchise. And there was the last acquisition before, Junting's comparison of where the funds were used is also a question mark for the investors. What's even more peculiar is that before the epidemic, Junting was highly profitable, and its dividend payout ratio was less than 30%. However, in 2021 and 2022, its profits declined, but the dividend payout ratio for dividends exceeded 80%. According to its prospectus, "if the company is in the mature stage and has no major capital expenditure arrangement, the dividend payout ratio should reach at least 80%." "I can't help but wonder, what is Junting doing?On the one hand, additional issuance of 51.7 billion, said to be expanded. On the other hand, they feel that they are in a mature stage and have no major capital expenditure arrangements, and they are crazy about paying dividends to shareholders. So since there is no need to expand, why go public to raise funds?In the future, whether Junting will join or self-operate, it seems that it has not determined a good direction. One side of the additional issuance of 51.7 billion for the expansion of directly operated stores. On the other hand, in the 2022 annual report, it said that "with the Junting Shangpin model store as a pilot, we will choose the opportunity to start the franchise business". Public information shows that before Junting's listing, almost all of its business was concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region. After listing, it began to gradually move to the whole country. However, from the perspective of income composition, the Yangtze River Delta region still accounts for nearly 70%. Obviously, whether it is the stock price or the business model, there is not much time left for Junting, can Junting rise again?