As of December 21, the CBOT soybean main 01 contract tentatively closed at 13155 cents bushel (3:00 ** price), up 6 from last Thursday5 cents bushel, up 049%；U.S. beans rose first and then declined, and the whole intraday was around 1310 cents Bu up and down in a narrow range**;At the beginning of the week, the CBOT soybean front-month contract rose first, on the one hand, due to the good export data of US soybeans, on the other hand, on the other hand, supported by strong domestic crushing, and Argentina will raise export taxes on soybean products. As of December 21, the main M05 contract of soybean meal closed at 3355 yuan, down 54 yuan tons (M05 contract) from last Thursday, down 158%；The main contract of continuous meal M05 fluctuated**, falling below the 3400-point mark during the session. Continuous meal is weaker than the external disk is mainly dragged down by the domestic spot, the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to accumulate, and the downstream aquatic products into the off-season, pig breeding continues to lose money, the number of pigs slaughtered is accelerated, and the decline in the inventory of breeding sows has expanded significantly. What is the motivation of Meidou next week?How will the spot be interpreted?In this regard, the mysteel agricultural products team launched a comprehensive survey on the market changes next week, covering 34 oil mills, 31 feed companies, 31 first-class businessmen, and 14 investment institution analysts in 17 provinces and cities. The specific results are as follows:
Figure 1: Overall view of soybean meal outlook.
Overall, the proportion of the sample who are optimistic about consolidation in the domestic soybean meal spot market next week has increased to 43% from 31% last weekThe highest proportion;The number of bearish accounts for 40%, compared with 12% of last week, and the proportion of soybean meal **will** next week is 17%, which is the same as last week.
Figure 2: Oil mills' views on the future market of soybean meal.
Separately, the proportion of oil mills who are bullish on the future market of soybean meal accounts for 24%. The proportion of bearish is 38%, a decrease of 9% from last week, and the proportion of bearish consolidation is 38%, an increase of 14% from last week. This week, oil mills are mainly looking at consolidation and **, the operating rate of oil mills has rebounded, ** has increased, the downstream buying sentiment is not high, and the short-term soybean meal spot is mainly short.
Figure 3, feed enterprises' views on the soybean meal market outlook.
In terms of feed companies, soybean meal next week is the largest bearish, 55%, a decrease of 3% from last week's bearish ratio, and the proportion of consolidation accounts for 32%, only 13% of feed companies believe that next week's spot will be **, compared with the situation in last week's feed enterprise mentality survey, feed companies are still dominant in the later soybean meal market mentality. At present, aquatic products have entered the off-season, pig breeding continues to lose money, slaughter increases, soybean meal consumption decreases, and domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate, early oversupply pattern, downstream buying sentiment is not good, do not think that the follow-up soybean meal ** has too big a possibility.
Figure 4, ** businessmen's views on the future market of soybean meal.
* In terms of business, the proportion of soybean meal ** consolidation this week accounted for 48%, an increase of 16% last week, and the proportion of bearish ** merchants was 36%, and the proportion of bullish was 16%, an increase of 3% from last week. This week, the mentality of the business sector has changed from bearish to consolidation-based, and under the pattern of poor domestic demand and strong U.S. bean disk, the business believes that next week will still be the main.
Figure 5: Investment institutions' views on the future market of soybean meal.
Finally, the view of investment institutions, this week, the proportion of investment institutions for the market outlook is only 14%, a decrease of 15% from last week, the proportion of bearish is 22%, and the proportion of consolidation is 64%. Investment institutions also believe that next week will be consolidation-based, although the current overall domestic supply exceeds demand, but the weather in Brazil's main producing areas is still hype, and Argentina has raised export tariffs on agricultural products.
Survey description: 1. This survey is a comprehensive survey and analysis of the changes in the market of Mysteel agricultural products every Thursday for the next week.
2. The survey covers 17 major provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian.
3. The survey sample selected 34 oil mills, 31 feed companies, 31 leading businessmen, and 14 investment institution analysts who have a key impact on the soybean meal market.