Morning Comment 1229: Or enter the ** cycle.
Market judgment] Overseas, Europe and the United States were mixed overnight, and the Dow rose 014%, continuing to hit a new high, and the S&P 500 index rose 004%, the Nasdaq fell 003%。
Domestically, the market rebounded sharply yesterday, the volume was significantly amplified, and the index confirmed to stabilize. There are 4,282 companies in the two cities, and the money-making effect continues to improve. The market volume was greatly enlarged to 884.4 billion. The net inflow of northbound funds was 1355.8 billion. As of the end of **, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 138%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 271%, the GEM index rose 385%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 268%。
In terms of industry and sector hotspots, the market leaders are photovoltaic equipment, HJT batteries, beauty care, etc. The strength of photovoltaic equipment and HJT cells stems from the new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity of 21 in November3GW, up 57% QoQ, and installed capacity continued to exceed expectations. The strength of the concept of beauty care stems from the large decline since the beginning of this year, and the strength is greater in the context of the over-fall.
The market led the decline in coal mining, port shipping, aquaculture, etc. Coal mining belongs to the direction of high dividends, and has performed well recently, but under the sharp ** of the market, coal has begun to make up for the decline significantly. The weakening of the port and shipping sector stems from the temporary end of the Red Sea crisis and the lack of new catalysts in the shipping sector in the short term. The weakness of the aquaculture sector stems from its defensive nature and generally underperforms in strong markets.
The People's Bank of China announced on December 28 that the Monetary Policy Committee recently held its regular meeting for the fourth quarter of 2023. The meeting pointed out that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. Different from the regular meeting in the third quarter, this meeting changed the expression of monetary policy from "precise and powerful" to "precise and effective", and implemented the latest requirements of the ** economic work conference. In addition, it is necessary to intensify the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced. Maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, guide the reasonable growth and balanced allocation of credit, and keep the scale of social financing and the amount of money in line with the expected targets of economic growth and the highest level.
On the whole, the market rose sharply yesterday, and the index may officially enter the first cycle. Historically, the average duration of Spring Restlessness** or New Year's Eve Red Envelopes** is 37 trading days. It may only be the beginning now. It is recommended to increase positions on dips and hold stocks to rise.
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*There are risks, you need to be cautious when entering the market, the above views are for reference only).