According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's import and export data fell sharply again in July, and in yuan terms, China's total import and export data in July was 346 trillion yuan, down 83%, of which, exports are 202 trillion yuan, down 92%, imports fell 144 trillion yuan, down 69%, * surplus of 575.7 billion yuan, down 146%；But if it is denominated in US dollars, China's total import and export volume is 4829200 million US dollars, of which, exports are 2817$600 million, down 145%, imports in 2011$600 million, down 124%, * surplus of only $80.6 billion, down 194%, which is another terrifying economic data after the real estate fell by more than 30% in July.
So what is the reason for the double-digit decline in China's import and export and ** surplus, why the data denominated in US dollars has fallen more than the data denominated in RMB, what kind of negative impact will this decline cause, and how should we deal with it, the following directions are worth thinking about:
First of all, the decline in China's imports and exports** is largely due to the precise sniping of the US dollar. We all know that China is the world's largest importer and exporter, the largest industrial manufacturing country, to a certain extent, China is the most beneficiary of global economic integration, but it is what the United States does not want to see, and in order to reduce China's position in the international field, it is necessary to break or even destroy the existing international system, and re-establish the international system in favor of the United States, so how to do this, the answer depends on the dollar.
Specifically, it relies on the strong international status of the US dollar, gradually drains the foreign exchange reserves of the countries it considers hostile through the mode of interest rate hikes and local currency swaps, and moderately provides US dollar liquidity to its own ally countries, which in turn causes the fragmentation of the international industrial chain, and ultimately leads to the poor circulation of China's import and export. In addition, the United States and Europe, as the world's most important consumers, began to comprehensively reduce their dependence on China's manufacturing industry chain by supporting new manufacturing countries, reducing imports from China, transferring investment, etc., and eventually China's imports and exports gradually shrunk, and even did not rule out the status of China's largest country.
Secondly, once the plan to let the dollar snipe China's import and export succeed, the impact on us will be huge, the biggest impact here is employment, in general, China is still a labor-intensive country, especially our export enterprises, many are dependent on the export of textiles and garments, consumer electronics, furniture, toys, hardware products and other labor-intensive products for a living, if these industries have a decline, it means that many people will be unemployed, and with the increase of unemployed people, China's consumption will become more and more weak, can not play a positive role in supporting the economy。
In addition, with the decline of China's imports and exports, our **surplus will gradually decrease,** The reduction of the surplus will not only reduce our international payment capacity, but also greatly reduce our ability to resist international systemic financial risks, because whether it is Hong Kong dollars or offshore renminbi, if we want to maintain the exchange rate of these currencies, we must rely on enough US dollar foreign exchange to do so, and at the same time, having enough US dollars is also the basis for us to achieve the primary internationalization of RMB.
Finally, since the United States has been determined to destroy China's ** system, then how should we deal with it, maybe the internationalization of the RMB is a good choice, one of the purposes of the United States to withdraw the dollar liquidity is to make some countries unable to do with China because there is no US dollar**, but if these countries can use the RMB to buy Chinese goods, it can be alleviated to a certain extent** It is difficult, but in this process, we must prevent some countries from maliciously using the renminbi to exchange for the US dollar for other behaviors, because this is not conducive to the internationalization of the renminbi and makes the renminbi have the risk of being shorted.
In addition, we must put scientific and technological innovation in the highest position, because the low-end manufacturing industry is indeed easy to be replaced by other countries, but it is difficult to be limited to high-tech chip semiconductors, high-end biomedicine, aero engines and other high value-added products.