On December 16, at the main venue of the "2023 Snowball Carnival", Yang Xinbin, investment director and manager of Xueqiu Asset Management, shared the asset allocation plan for 2024 from the perspective of asset allocation.
What do you think about "conflict and balance"?
Regarding "conflict and balance", Yang Xinbin said that investment first needs to think about the changes in the trend of thought. He believes that at present, whether from the perspective of economic or geopolitical phenomena, the ideological trend of the entire era has begun to move from the original globalization to anti-globalization.
First of all, the great power game has brought contradictions and conflicts at all levels: first, the conflict between the economy and the world, such as the bottleneck of American science and technology;Second, the conflict between politics and military affairs. These contradictions and conflicts will lead to lower global economic growth expectations and rising inflation. There will be some disruptions in the short term, but in the long term the economy will still return to its normal growth track.
Yang Xinbin pointed out that the key question is whether the game and confrontation in the past few years can be balanced in the next stage. For global investors, it is necessary to pay attention to the direction of the global economy as a whole.
Second, returning to the economy as a whole, the main goal of Fed policy in 2023 is to curb inflation. For 2024, Yang Xinbin believes that the Fed's policy needs to balance inflation, growth, and employment in the new economic environment. Therefore, in 2024, it is important to observe that in the context of persistently high interest rates in the United States, the changes in the employment environment brought about by the cooling of investment, in the long run, the over-issuance of money for many years has brought about a significant improvement in household balance sheets, and the growth rate of wages in the United States may become one of the important factors driving long-term inflation in the second half of next year.
In the past three years, China's investment growth slope, especially real estate investment, has declined rapidly, but now its downward slope is gradually stabilizing. In 2024, the downward slope of overall fixed asset investment, including real estate investment, is likely to be more stable and better than in 2023.
How will the market environment develop in the future?
According to Yang Xinbin's analysis, China needs to balance economic growth, economic transformation, and the pressure of insufficient short-term economic investment or effective investment demand. Looking forward to 2024, the role of investment in stimulating the economy will be more significant and prominent in the short term.
Whether from the perspective of Western countries or China, the probability of overheated and overly aggressive investment on a global scale is reduced, which also means that there is a certain downside risk in demand on the commodity side or in some areas. Therefore, inflation in the United States will gradually normalize in the future, especially in the next 3-6 months. In the long run, there are several problems: First, the current assessment is that because the consumer spending of US residents is relatively strong, although the growth rate of manufacturing investment has declined to a certain extent, it is not enough to cause a catastrophic recession of the entire economy, so the expectation of such a soft landing is also strengthened by the market, including the US stock market is constantly hitting new highs, in the process, the entire financial conditions are improving. Overall, if inflation at the global interest rate pivot gradually normalizes and the overall interest rate pivot sinks, the risk of a global recession will also improve.
It is worth mentioning that the changes in our country are obvious, and we are currently in a period of economic transition, and the economy is gradually recovering. The high-quality transformation of the economy will not change as a goal of a longer cycle. After on-the-spot research, with the substantial implementation of urban villages and the three major projects, by the second half of 2024, we may be able to see a substantial stabilization of the economy.
Yang Xinbin, investment director and ** manager of Xueqiu Asset Management.
Asset allocation logic.
Standing in the present and looking forward to the future, Yang Xinbin gave a targeted asset allocation strategy, hoping to provide investors with some reference and reference. In terms of the Chinese market, first, from the perspective of changes in the supply and demand of money, M1 is low, and the effective demand is insufficient, but from the perspective of contrarian investment, it is a good time to investSecond, the demand for money and social finance are gradually repairing, and in the near future, the debt expansion of the first sector is dominant, and the first sector is still actively financing, and this part of the financing funds will form the actual workload of the economy in 2024, pushing up and supporting the development of the overall economy.
From the perspective of inflation indicators, China's CPI and PPI are now negative, but in the future, with the strength of the first fiscal side, it may be expected to reverse the downward trend, and the central bank is still in a state of easy money and easy credit. In the future, China's bond assets are opportunities, long-term bonds are more, because the real interest rate is too high, and now it is still in an environment where the CPI is negative, so it is necessary to help the overall economic development through monetary easing.
In terms of bond assets, the next trend is to overweight U.S. bonds and moderately overweight Chinese bondsIn terms of equity assets, we tend to overweight value and growth stocks and underweight small-cap stocksCommodities, structural overweight of China's infrastructure and real estate chain varieties, underweight overseas economic and inflation expectations downward revision of varieties, underweight *** overall need to be cautious, the essence is because global manufacturing investment has no significant room for significant growth, but on the other hand, we should also pay attention to the force of China's industrial policy has brought structural opportunities, and some industrial chains still have growth points in 2024.