Pickled meat is difficult to support, pig prices fell again 2 times in a row, the winter solstice is approaching, what is the prospect of pig prices?
Market feedback information shows that on December 22, the average price of ternary lean pigs in China was 1426 yuan kg, compared with yesterday's **02 yuan kg, pig price presented"2 consecutive declines"The average price of live pigs is still at a relatively low level, and the domestic market maintains an overall downward trend
Specifically, among the 28 provinces and regions that are monitored in the north and south, there are as many as 25 areas with low pig prices, and the decline is generally 01~0.Between 5 yuan kg, at present, in the north and south markets, the center of gravity of pig prices in the northeast has fallen to 135~13.75 yuan, Shanxi and Hebei's ** bottomed out 1415~14.4 yuan, and in the southern ** region, at present, the ** in Sichuan and Chongqing has fallen back to 1425~14.$4. 75 yuan, Shanxi and Hebei's **amount bottomed out to 1415~14.4 yuan, and in the southern ** region, at present, the ** volume of Sichuan and Chongqing has fallen to 1425~14.6 yuan, the price of pigs in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has fallen to 1545 yuan, the pig price in the two Guangxi areas is 1425~15.1 yuan fluctuates between kilograms!
Judging from the market reaction, pig prices are showing a downward trend, and the current market is intertwined with long and short, and the good support is as follows:
First of all, the pickling concentration in the southwest region, the pickling demand in Central China, East China, and South China will gradually improve, and the demand for pork consumption may continue to recover, and the winter solstice season in the northern region"Replenish the winter"Demand will gradually improve, and pork consumption will have strong support for pig prices
Second, the pig price is sluggish, and the market's freight mentality still exists, especially when the pig price is long-term sideways low, the farmers admit that the mentality is left and right, and the sentiment of resisting the low price is higher
Third, the slaughterhouse has a large inventory of frozen pork, the fresh white meat will not be pushed, the slaughterhouse will not lose too much frozen pork, and the slaughterhouse has a certain price mentality
Fourth, the festive atmosphere is gradually thickening at the end of the month"Double knots"Demand may increase, and the hosiery market enthusiasm may turn strong!
However, although the favorable support of pork ** is strong, and consumer demand for pork may continue to increase, pork *** still faces multiple unfavorable factors!
On the one hand, pig overcapacity, the average weight of pigs increases, the market pork production or will increase significantly, frozen pork will also enter the centralized elimination and storage period, the domestic cold storage volume ratio remains high, pork supply and demand continue to be weak;
On the other hand, the pressure on pig slaughter at the end of next year will increase sharply, especially the group pig company is facing the pressure of slaughter volume at the end of the year, the average daily slaughter scale is high, and the pressure to raise prices is high"There is more than enough heart but not enough strength", ** farms in some areas are still facing the pressure of the epidemic, and the phenomenon of debt slaughter is more prominent!
At the same time, after this round of cold wave, the domestic temperature in the north and south may gradually rise on New Year's Day, and during the Spring Festival, the temperature in most parts of the north and south may change from an abnormally cold stage to a warm stage, which may not be conducive to the development of demand monitoring before the Spring Festival!
Therefore, in the short-term and long-term game, supported by the winter solstice and slaughter demand, the support of pig prices in the short term still exists, the lack of sustainable pig prices, the next 1 2 days, pig prices in the north or will stop falling and rebound, the southern market will gradually stabilize, pig prices should return to the upward trend, but by the end of the month, the pig price rebound space is limited, especially from the analysis of institutional data, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has risen and fallen. Pork consumption follow-up may be limited!
The treatment is unbearable, and the price of pigs is again"2 consecutive declines"The winter solstice is approaching, and the price of pigs is seeing the sunHow do you feel about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, ** on the Internet, the content is for reference only!