ASML was caught off guard, and the speed of Chinese lithography machine substitution was unexpected.
With the increasing demand for chips in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and new energy vehicles, the role of chips is also increasing. Chip manufacturing includes a series of processes such as wafer design, wafer manufacturing, and wafer testing.
Currently, wafers require a wide variety of semiconductor components. Lithography plays a vital role in the chip manufacturing process, as the lithography process accounts for about 20% of the entire chip production.
At present, the world's largest lithography machine manufacturer is the Netherlands ASML, the only company in the world with EUV lithography machine, and EUV lithography machine belongs to a kind of lithography machine, which is considered to be one of the most advanced lithography technologies. Otherwise, it will need to be repeated many times, which will reduce the yield and yield of the product.
It is precisely because of the importance of extreme ultraviolet lithography technology that ASML occupies a place in the semiconductor equipment market. In addition to ASML, companies such as Nikon in Japan, Canon, and Shanghai Microelectronics in China are also well-known in lithography technology.
According to data released by ASML, extreme ultraviolet lithography requires the participation of the global ** chain, and there are currently more than 5,000 companies around the world to provide EUV lithography components, a considerable part of which are made in the United States. For example, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology was first jointly developed by Intel (Intel) in the United States, a number of semiconductor companies in the United States, ASML and other enterprises.
In the field of EUV lithography, about 20% of the core technology is independently developed by ASML, which requires a lot of American technical supportAt the same time, American companies are also involved in the ** chain of EUV lithography. Therefore, the United States needs to put pressure on ASML on the supply of lithography technology.
Previously, the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands signed a trilateral agreement, and the Netherlands has limited DUV lithography equipment to 2000i and higher models since September 1. The lithography machines included in the export control list generally use the lithography technology of 7nm to 38nm process, which is the most advanced after ultraviolet lithography technology.
Although ASML issued a statement on September 1 that it has received permission to ship in the Netherlands, it will continue to ship the 2000i and subsequent models of DUV lithography equipment to the Chinese market. However, ASML's shipping license is only valid until January 1, 2024, which means that if ASML does not get a new shipping license, or if there is a change in export controls, it will not be able to continue to ship.
The Chinese market is obviously an important market for ASML, according to relevant sources, the current global chip manufacturers have cut their semiconductor equipment orders, and earlier TSMC (TSMC) and ASML (ASML) have also said that they will delay supply.
At the same time, Chinese chipmakers have been expanding their production capacity, with SMIC, for example, investing $170 billion in Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Shenzhen, and YMTC and Longchip Storage planning in the past.
At present, it seems that ASML is stepping up its supply of lithography machines to the Chinese market, according to data released by ASML, its revenue from China in the first three quarters was 8%, 24% and 48% respectively. According to industry analysts, according to the currently released data and information, ASML seems to be using the shipping license that has not yet expired to speed up the delivery of lithography machines.
The Chinese market is very important to ASML, but ASML may not have anticipated that Chinese customers would soon replace existing lithography machines. According to foreign media reports, the Japanese semiconductor equipment manufacturer previously announced that it will release a lithography equipment in China next year.
China's special lithography equipment will use common components, so it is possible to bypass the ban. From this news, it can be seen that the shipment of Nikon lithography machines in the later stage will undoubtedly alleviate the problem that Chinese manufacturers cannot continue to supply due to equipment shortages to a certain extent.
The most important point is that the general equipment maintenance is relatively easy, and the problem of after-sales service is easily solved. If ASML does not lift the ban, Nikon is likely to steal market share in China.