**The master said that in 2024, society will usher in 4 strange phenomena, which are completely different from previous years!
In less than a month, we are approaching 2024. Looking ahead to 2023, our economy has recovered quickly after the lifting of restrictions due to the pandemic, with GDP achieving 52% growth. This also shows that China's economy has strong growth potential and resilience.
However, the only flaw is that the revenge consumption, revenge house purchase, etc. that were previously ** did not appear, but waited for people's revenge savings. Obviously, it will take a long time to fully recover, I'm afraid.
For the current national economic and social situation, there are industry experts**, there will be four major phenomena in my country in the first half of 2024, we can understand in advance and prepare:
First of all, raise the awareness of residents to save money.
In the past, middle-aged and elderly people were the main force of deposits, but after the pandemic, more and more young people have joined the ranks of savers.
According to the data, resident deposits increased by 144 in the first three quarters of 2023200 million yuan. The reason why people are becoming more and more active about saving money is mainly because they are coping with emergencies such as unemployment and illness. At the same time, the current investment environment is not good, and it is better to honestly deposit money in bank fixed deposits for varieties with high risks and high returns.
However, it is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the bank deposit rate has been continuously lowered. The main reason why banks want to lower deposit interest rates is that there are too many bank deposits, and banks hope to force residents to withdraw their deposits for consumption and investment by lowering deposit interest rates.
It is expected that there is still room for deposit rates to fall next year. This is undoubtedly a headache for savers with large deposits, as interest rates fall and interest income will be significantly reduced.
Second, mortgage rates will continue to fall.
Since the beginning of this year, sales of new and second-hand homes have fallen sharply. As of the end of October, the area of commercial housing for sale was 648.35 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 181%。
Among them, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 197%。If calculated on the basis of 90 square meters of each commercial house, the national commercial housing stock should reach at least 7.2 million units. In the future, real estate developers can only pass"Price reduction**"to replenish the funds.
At the same time, there are now more than 100,000 advertisements for second-hand housing in many large cities, especially in first-tier cities in September"Recognize the house but not the loan"Since then, there have been more than 150,000 advertisements for second-hand housing in Beijing and more than 180,000 advertisements for second-hand housing in Shanghai. The increase in the number of second-hand housing advertisements also means that the downward pressure on second-hand housing will be great in the future.
In order to encourage people to buy homes, some places have repeatedly lowered mortgage rates. Today, mortgage rates across the country have fallen below 4% and even 3 in some places6%。And in 2024, as the property market continues to decline, the mortgage interest rates of some banks will be further reduced, and most buyers who just need to buy a home will be really blessed.
Third, house prices will be further adjusted.
In 2023, domestic housing prices will present"Both volume and price rose"The sales of new and second-hand houses are weak, and more and more cities are joining the adjustment team. In 2024, housing prices are likely to continue this year's trend, and domestic people who just need to seize the opportunity really can't come.
The main reason is that many places are now liberalized"Price Limit Order"Developers can decide whether and how much to reduce the price according to their actual situation. At the same time, second-hand house owners will see more and more advertisements and houses will become more and more difficult to sell, and will also take the initiative to reduce prices**, which will be the general trend.
Fourth, the pension service industry ushered in development opportunities.
As we all know, China has entered a moderately aging society. By the end of 2022, the number of elderly people over the age of 60 in the country has reached 2800 million, and by 2025, China's elderly population is expected to exceed 300 million. The growing elderly population will not only bring huge pressure to pension payments, but also bring new opportunities to the pension industry.
It is hoped that by 2024, there will be more and more nursing homes opened by ** and private capital, and gradually solve the problem of difficult pension in China. At the same time, there is also a shortage of caregivers to take care of the elderly. Therefore, starting from next year, China's pension industry will usher in new development opportunities.