Recently,Philippines**MarcosIntending to seek helpers to solve the South China Sea issue, during this period, Japan also wanted to take the opportunity to intervene. As a result, the two countries hit it off and intend to enlist the support of other countries through the ASEAN-Japan Special Summit. However, their plans did not go as planned, and the ASEAN countries were unmoved. This makesMarcosRealizing that the situation was not good, he immediately changed his attitude and retracted the fiery rhetoric he had previously made to the Chinese ambassador.
Philippines**Marcosbegan to realize that he did not have the support of other countries on the issue of the South China Sea. They do not participate in the remarks of Japan and the Philippines, which leads ASEAN countries to disagree with the views of Japan and the Philippines. At the 21st ** meeting of the recent Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, ASEAN countries agreed that stability in the South China Sea is conducive to economic development, do not want to conflict with China, and hope for the early implementation of the Code. Therefore, the Philippine attempt ended in complete failure. This result is not surprising.
The Philippines' strategic shift is not only due to the silence of ASEAN countries, but also to make the Philippines realize that it is an "outlier" in the South China Sea. Philippines**MarcosRealized that even if he raised defense spending to the highest level, but inMedium ** thingIn the face of power, the Philippines is still at a disadvantage. In addition, 11 ships were observed in the PhilippinesChinese militiaThe ships entered the shoal, but it was unclear what China was going to do next. All these facts make itMarcosAware of its disadvantage, it immediately tightened its tone and expressed its willingness to sit down with China to negotiate a solution to the South China Sea issue, rather than seeking conflict and confrontation.
In contrast, Japan** has been trying to win over ASEAN countries, especially the Philippines and Vietnam, which have territorial disputes with China, to form a strategic alliance to contain China. However, ASEAN countries are not willing to take sides in the great power competition, but insist on independence and balance among major powersForeign policyand regional strategy, attach importance to economic friendship and cooperation with China, and do not want to become a pawn in the confrontation between major powers. It fully reflects the principled and independent attitude of ASEAN countries in diplomacy.
In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United States and its Western allies have put pressure on ASEAN countries to condemn and sanction Russia. However, countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam have resolutely refused to cut off economic ties with Russia and have not been affected by US interference. In addition, the United States tried to interfere with Indonesia and Thailand's plans to invite Russia to the G20 summit and APEC meetings, but it did not succeed. ASEAN countries have expressed concern about various security organizations of the United States and Japan, taking into account the guarantee of regional peace and stability.
At the same time, China's position is sound and advantageous. China believes that stabilizing ASEAN's fundamentals is the most important thing, and that only by maintaining good relations with ASEAN countries can the South China Sea develop steadily. China is willing to work with all parties to build railways and carry out cooperation. China's strength and moral superiority lie in the South China Sea. Therefore, China does not need to take a radical approach, as long as it steadily moves forward with the development of a code of conduct in the South China Sea. Once other countries join China's ride, the Philippines will eventually be forced to sit down with China and negotiate.
Through the failed strategic actions of the Philippines and Japan in the South China Sea, we can see China's superiority and stability on the South China Sea issue. The Philippines' attempt is seen as a one-man show by ASEAN countries, which insist on independence and balance among major powersForeign policy。At the same time, the Philippines also recognized its own weakness and decided to sit down with China to negotiate a solution. All these facts show that China has a relatively strong position and stability on the South China Sea issueThe situation in the South China Seais the most important.