Economic Observer Wang Yiwei textToday is December 29, 2023, and there are 14 days left until the 2024 Taiwan** (January 13, 2024).
This article is the author's last analytical review on *** in 2023. At the end of the year, it is necessary to look forward to next year.
The following is a brief exposition of the island's domestic factors, international and American factors, and mainland factors.
First of all, Taiwan**, which will be held in two weeks, is the biggest variable in 2024. There is no doubt about that.
Given that the uncertainty remains, there is some difficulty in determining who will be elected.
It is also very important to continue to deduce beyond Taiwan and analyze and evaluate the results of **.
There are two observation points.
First, it is important who is elected, but also the current situation of Taiwan's overall public opinion behind the votes and the possible direction of public opinion. For example, the Kuomintang's campaign slogan is "Vote for *** youth to go to war", and * downplay the "** color" and repeatedly promote peace. This prompts the people of Taiwan to judge the current situation of *** in the comparison, and if they vote for ***, will it really lead to war?The judgment on this issue greatly affects the direction of the Taiwanese people's voting.
Second, the newly elected leader of Taiwan, his exposition on *** in his inaugural speech is a very important observation indicator. Generally speaking, the new leader's elaboration of *** in his speech should be neutral, and there is a high probability that he will slightly correct the excessive remarks made during the election campaign. More importantly, this kind of exposition is directional and oriented, and it is a framework plan for the new Taiwan authorities to deal with it in the next four years.
Secondly, international factors and American factors have an impact on ***.
In terms of the international situation, the author expects that the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will be greatly reduced in 2024, and may even subside or end in some way. The so-called learning from the pain, such a pacification or end, will enable elites around the world to think calmly and seriously about the intricate relationship between war, peace, and development. For example, if you go back in time, will the leadership of Ukraine still pursue a policy of tilting towards the Western world while constantly provoking Russia?Taiwan's elite should have a deeper reflection on such issues.
The 60th ** election in the United States will be held on November 5, 2024, and it is worth closely observing whether the Taiwan issue will be hyped up by the candidates, in what way, and in which direction.
What needs to be pointed out in particular is that in the face of the hype and provocation that the United States may initiate on the cross-strait issue, how China should respond in a reasonable, beneficial, and restrained manner, and in particular, how to do so in a modest, is very delicate.
Finally, let's talk about the continental factor.
There are four key words for the continental factor: time, situation, initiative, and dominance. Specifically, in ***, "time and potential" are on the side of the mainland, which is the consensus of the mainland academic circles. In the specific work toward Taiwan, the mainland side has firmly grasped the initiative and the leading power.
Therefore, the author ** that in 2024, the mainland's work on Taiwan will continue to be implemented in the past and consistently.
Regardless of the outcome, it is believed that Taiwan-related departments on the mainland will be prepared accordingly. Figuratively speaking, there are enough tools in the toolbox, and the preparation is sufficient.
As the election approaches, I browse the news on the island every day, watch the candidates from all walks of life non-stop and hoarse, and watch the judicial departments on the island frequently arrest people, and the author's mentality has gradually calmed down.
This feeling is very subtle.