This article is the 700th original article published by Xijing Research Institute and the 659th original article by Dr. Zhao Jian.
At present, some people are caught in irrational mental internal friction and appearAnimal spirits in the negative sense- It can be described as a frightened and easily frightened flock. The scarring effect of the three-year epidemic and the pain of deep social transformation areThe main reason, the distorted distortion of the "information black market" under the restriction of information ** and discourse aggravates the amplification of negative informationTriggers。Recognize this and face the problems and shadows with calmness and sunshine, reallySing the bright theory of China's economy。Otherwise, under the information black market, people will increase their suspicion and anxiety, and they will not dare to consume and invest.
As described in mainstream economics, "equilibrium"."Rational".The word is also a metaphysical conjecture. In reality, equilibrium is not the norm, and the world is always in the process of converging from non-equilibrium to equilibriumIn the same way, rationality is very abnormal, and people in most cases make decisions with irrational animal impulses or self-righteous rationality, and then gradually move towards so-called rationality in making mistakes and correcting mistakes. In layman's terms, it is normal for people to make mistakesThe so-called rationality is not not to make mistakes, but to recognize one's own limitations (bounded rationality) and to continue to correct them
As a result, more and more scholars have begun to shift from mechanical, physical paradigm economics to behavioral economics and behavioral finance based on "human action". Keynes mentioned this issue as early as 100 years ago, and he gave it a special name, "animal spirits". 100 years have passed, and more than a dozen cycles of cycle transformation and crisis from greed and fanaticism to fear and despair, animal spirits have never been tamed by reason, but seem to have become more manic and irrational. Today it is the one who inherits his mantleTwo Nobel laureates in economics – Akerlof and Shearer, they co-authored a best-selling book with a nameAnimal Spirits
Some of the conditions of today's economy and ** can no longer be understood by mainstream economic theories and human rationality, and people lack a long-term understanding of the tortuous and wave-like nature of economic recovery, and have fallen into a negative, pessimistic, and seriously lacking confidence in the injured animal mental state. Whether it is a consumer or an investor, under repeated blows, they become depressed, anxious and confused, and even panicked, just like a flock of frightened and psychologically traumatized sheep, panicking at the slightest bit of wind and grass, always over-interpreting from the negative, no matter how the "shepherd" appeases and shouts, it is impossible to calm the mental state of this injured animal. This is understood from the level of behavioral economics and psychofinance ifIf we fail to recognize this, we will not be aware of the changes caused by the deep-seated psychology of economic subjects, and we will not be able to see the negative animal spirit that objectively exists at presentUnderestimating the severity and complexity of the real situation, which was introducedPolicies can only treat the symptoms but not the root causesInvestorsIf you don't see this, you can also make metaphysical mistakes – always, if you follow the logic of past valuation cyclesI thought it would be ** if it was over-fallingThe financial damage can be pulled by one or two long yang candlesticks, but the mental damage takes a long time.
The reason why we say that the current state isIrrationalThe animal spirit is because although the current situation in China's economy and capital market is grim, it has not reached such a pessimistic and hopeless state. It is true that the impact of the three-year epidemic is too great, coupled with the turbulent waves overseas and the price paid for high-quality transformation, the economic recovery does look like a twist and turn, and the society urgently needs to recuperate like a sick person, butExpectation and confidenceIt's not that bad. However, everyone's confidence is extremely low and objectively existsWhy?According to social psychology, for a social collective, the negative impact of opaque information is greater and more long-lasting than bad news. Measurable, discussable risks are not risks because people digest them quicklyThe real risk is the uncertainty that cannot be measured and cannot be disclosed。What people are worried about is not the current difficulties, there are countless difficult times in China's history, but everyone has survived safely and achieved better progress and development. The fear is that the decision-makers do not see these problems, because they are not visible from the official public information。If the top management can ask these questions generously, openly and transparently, and let everyone discuss them openly in an inclusive, sunny and confident manner, these issues will not only not discourage confidence, but will make people feel that they are united from top to bottom to overcome difficulties and increase their confidence. On the contrary, if speech is more and more restricted and negative information is controlled, then information can only be traded on the "black market", but it is easier to chase after the wind, make a fuss, and sensationalize, even if the positive information is distorted and understood, and the negative information is infinitely amplified. This is the law of communication, and the regulation of information and discourse itself is a serious negative message.
fromThe decision-making process of economic agentsWhether it is consumers or investors, when making consumption and investment decisions, if they rely on an information black box and are confused about the future, how will they make decisions?It must be done with the most cautious thinking and the lowest risk appetite. Due to the opacity of information, it can also be cautious and skeptical of positive signalsFor the "small compositions" that cannot be discerned in private, because of the loss of official "quality inspection", the cost of self-verification is very high, so it is better to believe them than to rationally screen them, which eventually leads to the increasingly serious situation of people's negative pessimism. Coupled with the contagion and fermentation of collective emotions, it is easy to form panicked animal spirits. So the market was full of rumors, cups and bows, and people were like wounded lambs and frightened birds.
So how do you **?To give an inappropriate example, a flock of sheep covered in bruises and panic, what should a shepherd do?Of course, it is to use gentle words, kind actions, and high-quality forage to comfort and condole. You must not be angry, whipped and kicked because the sheep are frightened, which can only temporarily deter the sheep, but it will not be psychologically traumatic and will aggravate the trauma. Specifically, it isIn terms of public opinion management and information control, neither tightening nor relaxing, butMore scientific, intelligent, confident and opento deal with it, do not cut it all out. Otherwise, not only will it not solve the problem and relieve the pressure, but it will accumulate contradictions, make the information black market trading more rampant, the bad money will drive out the good money, and the fake news will be everywhere, increasing people's unease. Therefore, it is more reasonable to do this, instead of letting others accuse and smear them, it is better to take the initiative to put forward the current problems and conduct professional and rational analysis, so that the behavior of excessive distortion and malicious dissemination is self-consciously boring. It's hard to get rid of a message completely, it's easy to block a message, but it's hard to dispel doubts in people's minds. Therefore, the government should encourage the rational voice and professional analysis of the society and the people, and release and collect in the management of public opinion, focus on decentralization, precise governance, and jointly establish a first-class system of China's bright theory with social resources, rather than only the official fighting alone. In addition, it is necessary to deal with public opinion with dialectical thinking and make people believe that the effective way to convince the light is to face the darkness and face the problem calmly. It is not difficult to put the problem on the table with an open and clear conscience, but it will arouse people's respect and boost people's confidence.
The epidemic has passed, but the scars have always been there, and it is not as simple as we imagined. In those three years, the direct damage caused by the virus attack in China was relatively small, and the secondary disasters caused by overprotection were larger, while the opposite was true overseas, so the impact and mode of the scarring effect were also different. One is a long pain and the other is a short pain. If the long-term and far-reaching effects of scarring are not well understood, it will be difficult to get to the root of the current problem. I've been calling for it since the beginning of last year2023 should be the first year after the epidemic, the year of benevolent rule, the year of recuperation and mutual tenderness. All policies should focus on people's livelihood and development, and care for those who were unfortunate when the virus was raging and those who were left behind in social development. China has achieved a great victory in the battle against poverty, and preventing a large-scale return to poverty is the top priority. In this period of 3-5 years, there should be no contractionary policies and misguided rhetoric. The essence of high-quality development is development, and there can be no high-quality without development. At present, the first task is development, and only by solving the basic problems of people's livelihood can we achieve high quality at a higher level. Chinese modernization is a people-centered modernization that puts people's livelihood and people's hearts first.
The animal spirit is not only negative and pessimistic, but also a kind of animal spirit, which may be too fanatical. However, in the current extremely depressed atmosphere,ActivationIt's not unreasonable to have an exuberant animal spirit. According to the ** Economic Work Conference, the main tone of the policy in 2024 should be:To promote stability, first establish and then break。Freezing three feet is not a day's cold,Injured animal spirits need continuous policy warmth, and more importantly, institutional sunshine such as the rule of law and the modernization of national governance。Now the whole world is not easy, just out of the plague, and encountered the harm of war, as well as the threat of geopolitical conflict, China's development environment is relatively good, and it is bright to choose the right path. Therefore, we should adhere to the development as the center, not only the development of the economy, but also the development of society, people's livelihood, rule of law, and governance capacity. I believe that as long as we do not forget our original intentions in these directions, work hard for a long time, and continue to release the most traumatic signals and actions, people in the negative animal spirit will slowly be regained confidence and hope, and China's economy and society will also come out of the haze and move towards light.