At the 2023 China Real Estate Big Data Annual Conference and the 2024 China Real Estate Market Trend Report, Vice President Huang Yu ** the trend of China's property market in 2024. She pointed out that the future recovery of the real estate market will depend on the recovery of home buyers' expectations, and it is expected that the area of commercial housing sales in 2024 will decline by 49%。This ** has been recognized by industry insiders, who believe that if there is no accident, this ** is likely to come true again.
Vice President Huang Yu**In 2024, the sales area of commercial housing will decrease by 4 percent year-on-year9%。There is a basis for this. According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in 2023, the sales area of newly built commercial residential buildings in key 100 cities will decline by about 5% year-on-year. However, with the continuous introduction of favorable policies, the full recovery of the macroeconomy, and the opening of local policies to restrict price reductions for developers, it is expected that the sales area of commercial housing in 2024 is unlikely to continue to be large**, but will appear "slightly**". Recently, cities such as Suzhou, Shenzhen and Nanjing have successively lifted restrictions on developers to reduce prices, allowing developers to decide whether and how much to reduce prices according to the actual situation. More cities are expected to lift restrictions in 2024, which will help developers destock, recoup funds, and reduce debt crises and unfinished buildings. Therefore, it is a high probability event that the sales area of commercial housing in 2024 will be "small".
Vice President Huang Yu mentioned that the recovery of the real estate market in the future still depends on whether the expectations of home buyers can recover, which is related to the confidence of home buyers in the property market, the expectation of future housing price trends and the recovery of future income expectations.
1. The recovery of confidence in the property market
Recently, well-known real estate companies such as Country Garden and Evergrande Real Estate have seen unfinished buildings, which has seriously hit the confidence of home buyers. Many potential home buyers are on the sidelines and are reluctant to enter the market easily. It will take time and a series of measures to restore homebuyer confidence. The problem of unfinished buildings needs to be properly resolved, and real estate companies need to strengthen accountability and quality supervision in order to restore buyers' confidence in the real estate market.
2. Expectations for future housing price trends
Many homebuyers are concerned about the expectation of future home price movements. Many people are worried that house prices will continue to be after buying a house**. According to 2023 data, house prices in many cities have seen a significant **, and this situation is expected to continue into 2024. In anticipation of the possibility of continued home prices in the future**, it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in home demand.
3. Recovery of future revenue expectations
The pandemic has taken a toll on many people's incomes, and many families have lowered their expectations for future income growth. Although many people's incomes will gradually return to growth in 2024, it is difficult to have optimistic expectations compared to the past. The non-recovery of buyers' expectations for future income growth will also affect the transaction area of the property market, making it difficult for it to reverse sharply, and can only maintain a "small **" trend.
Vice President Huang Yu's ** shows that the expectations of home buyers play a decisive role in the trend of the property market. When looking at the recovery of homebuyer confidence, expectations of future house price trends, and future income expectations, we find that these factors are closely related to the reality of the market. Buyers' expectations depend not only on personal psychological factors, but also on external factors such as the policy environment, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, and the economic situation. Therefore, we can not only rely on individuals, but also need to consider more factors to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the property market trend.
Vice President Huang Yu's ** gave a reasonable judgment on the trend of China's property market in 2024. Her ** is supported by actual data, combined with the expected factors of home buyers to conduct a more comprehensive analysis of the property market trend. However, we must also note that the trend of the property market is not determined by a single factor, but by a combination of factors. In the next few years of development, developers and home buyers will work together to formulate more scientific and reasonable policies and improve the confidence of home buyers, so as to achieve the stable development of the property market. It is hoped that the future property market will smoothly return to rationality and bring more opportunities and benefits to market participants.