Author 丨 Yue Shangyuan, a Xi student who paid wings and flew into practice.
Editor丨Li Bo.
The annual economic work conference is an important indicator of economic development and policy trends. According to Xinhua News Agency, the ** Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12.
The two-day session this year is the same as last year, and the meeting continued the general tone of the Politburo meeting on December 8 for economic work, that is, "next year we must adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, establish first and then break down, and strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies."
In the specific policy direction, the relevant industrial policies for the construction of a modern industrial system have been put in the first place, and the policy of expanding domestic demand has integrated the role of consumption and investment, while a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform, the "three major projects" in the real estate field, and the cultivation of new momentum for foreign trade will also be accelerated next year.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter compared the relevant reports of last year's ** economic work conference, and sorted out and interpreted the eight important expressions of this year's ** economic work conference.
1. The basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed
2023 is a year of economic recovery after the three-year transition of new crown epidemic prevention and control. Since the beginning of this year, China's economic recovery has shown the characteristics of wave-like development and zigzag progress, and the overall economic operation has picked up and improved. From the perspective of economic growth, the economic growth rates in the first quarter, the second quarter and the third quarter were respectively. 9%；Cumulatively, the economy grew by 5% year-on-year in the first three quarters2%。
The International Monetary Organization recently announced that it will raise its forecast for China's economic growth in 2023 from 5% to 5.5%.4%, an important reason for the upward revision is that China's macro policies have a significant role in supporting the economy, so that "China's economy is expected to achieve its growth target in 2023 and recover strongly". In addition, a number of international business institutions have also raised their forecasts for China's economic growth this year, with JPMorgan Chase raising their forecasts from 5% to 52%, Morgan Stanley from 48% to 51%, Citigroup raised from 5% to 53%, UBS Group AG from 48% to 52%, Deutsche Bank from 51% to 52%。Market institutions generally expect to achieve the growth target of about 5% set at the beginning of the year, and April 2024The growth target of 5% to 5% is a high-probability event.
2. Overcome difficulties such as insufficient effective demand and overcapacity in some industries
* The Economic Work Conference pointed out that some difficulties and challenges need to be overcome to further promote the economic recovery, mainly due to insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and still many hidden risks.
Compared with the "triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations" put forward by last year's ** economic work conference, this year's economic pressure has shifted more intensively to the lack of effective demand. In terms of specific performance, although the total retail sales of consumer goods rebounded for three consecutive months in October, it was also affected by the base effect and was still in the stage of weak recovery; After briefly returning to the expansion range in September, the manufacturing PMI fell back to below 50% in October and November, with the lack of new orders being the main drag; From January to October, the growth rate of investment fell to 29%, the growth rate is low.
In addition, the current photovoltaic and other industries do have a certain stage and structural excess risk, the overall profits of industrial enterprises are also low, CPI and PPI have declined in November, and prices continue to run at a low level, which may affect the medium and long-term investment willingness of enterprises.
3. "Establish first and then break" was put forward for the first time in the position of the general tone
The Economic Work Conference continued the general tone of the Politburo meeting on December 8 for economic work, and made it clear that next year we should adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, establish first and then break down, strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools, and make positive fiscal policies moderately strengthen to improve quality and efficiency.
The meeting also proposed that it is necessary to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation. Strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology, environmental protection and other policies, incorporate non-economic policies into the consistency assessment of macro policy orientation, strengthen policy coordination, and ensure that the same direction is exerted and a joint force is formed.
"Establish first and then break down" was put in the position of the general tone for the first time, which means that in the overall promotion of economic work in the future, the priority of the establishment of new mechanisms and new models will be significantly increased, the dilapidated work and the impact of dilapidated work will be controlled, and high-quality development and structural reform will be promoted under the condition of preventing the risk of economic stalling. At present, the risks of small and medium-sized banks, local bonds, and real estate are generally controllable, and the risk mitigation work may be more moderate and stable.
4. The position of industrial policy has been improved, and new quality productivity has been mentioned first
This year's ** economic work conference is relatively rare to list industrial policy as the first item in specific work, and it is clear that "leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation." It is necessary to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to use disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies to give birth to new industries, new models, and new kinetic energy, and develop new quality productive forces. ”
In the specific industrial direction, the meeting made it clear that it is necessary to vigorously promote new industrialization, develop the digital economy, and accelerate the development of artificial intelligence. We will build a number of strategic emerging industries such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy, open up new tracks for future industries such as quantum and life sciences, widely apply digital intelligence technology and green technology, and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.
At present, the main tone of China's industrial policy is still industrial upgrading and competitiveness, and at the same time, in order to cope with the external uncertain environment and strengthen the ability to resist risks. China has made clear the goal of "basically realizing new industrialization by 2035", and "new quality productivity" was also put forward for the first time in the first economic work conference, reflecting the internal requirements of China's current productivity development, and is also in line with "first establishing and then breaking". On the one hand, the focus of strategic emerging industries and future industries is to seize the opportunity of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, accelerate the cultivation of new engines of economic growth, and achieve leapfrog development in new fields and new tracks; On the other hand, promoting the development of traditional industries in the direction of high-end, intelligent and green, and making balanced arrangements for the role of traditional industries in stabilizing the total amount, will also help ensure the overall stability of the current macroeconomy and avoid economic stalling.
5. Form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other
This year's first economic work conference proposed to focus on expanding domestic demand. It is necessary to stimulate consumption with potential, expand productive investment, and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other.
Last year's ** economic work conference proposed "to give full play to the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment", and the current stage of insufficient demand has become a prominent factor restricting economic repair, this meeting also in the expression of the two combined for the overall deployment, the first mention of "the formation of consumption and investment to promote each other's virtuous circle", which means that next year's expansion of domestic demand needs to play a coordinated role in promoting economic growth between consumption and investment.
As the world's second largest consumer market and the largest online retail market, China's super-large-scale market has obvious advantages, and the rapid development of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization will also give rise to huge investment demand. Therefore, it is also required that future investment should pay more attention to efficiency, and the acceleration of the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the optimization of the layout of new infrastructure, and the implementation of projects to make up for shortcomings in the field of people's livelihood are the key directions of future investment. At the same time, in the process of transforming investment into physical workload, it will also be transmitted through the chain of goods or services purchase, effectively driving the increase of income and the expansion of consumption, thus forming a virtuous circle.
6. Plan a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform
This year's first economic work conference proposed that the active fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, and the quality and efficiency should be improved. It is necessary to make good use of the fiscal policy space and improve the efficiency of funds and the effectiveness of policies. Optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures and strengthen the financial guarantee for major national strategic tasks. At the same time, we will plan a new round of reform of the fiscal and taxation system and implement the reform of the financial system.
A major manifestation of the fiscal policy in 2023 is the issuance of an additional 1 trillion yuan of government bonds in the fourth quarter and an increase in the budget deficit ratio of 0.8 percentage points to 38%, this is the first time since 2001 that China has raised the budget in the middle of the year, increased the funds at the disposal of the fiscal department, and also opened the prelude to a new round of fiscal active expansion of domestic demand.
In the context of the current tight local fiscal revenue and expenditure and the prevention and resolution of local debt risks, the government will be leveraged to assume more expenditure responsibilities or transfer funds to local governments.
7. Actively and prudently resolve real estate risks
As the main body of the current real estate industry, the commercial housing market has long had problems such as "high debt, high leverage, and high turnover" operation of real estate enterprises, rapid expansion of assets and liabilities, and excessively high housing prices in some cities. Over the past year, "major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market" have become the tone of the property market. Departments at all levels frequently optimize property market policies to promote the smooth operation of the real estate market. At the end of October this year, the first financial work conference proposed to "speed up the construction of affordable housing and other 'three major projects' and build a new model of real estate development", and then the "three major projects" were repeatedly mentioned in important meetings, and the policy environment was gradually relaxed, but factors such as residents' income and weak income expectations still restrict the pace of market repair.
*The Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to actively and prudently resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Accelerate the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages. Improve relevant basic systems and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development.
Considering the overall tone of this meeting, the real estate industry, which is the "old kinetic energy", is still expected to continue to optimize and adjust the restrictive policies introduced in the overheated stage of the market. The "three major projects" will be the main direction of policy development in 2024, which is expected to play an important role in stabilizing investment, and will also play a positive role in the recovery of sales and stabilizing expectations, and the decline in real estate investment is expected to narrow. Moreover, compared with last year's expression of "meeting the reasonable financing needs of the industry and effectively preventing and resolving the risks of high-quality leading real estate enterprises", this year it has been further relaxed to "meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership without discrimination". Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and other state-owned banks have publicly made it clear on many occasions that they will not hesitate to lend, draw or cut off loans for normal real estate enterprises to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
8. Accelerate the cultivation of new momentum for foreign trade
This year's economic work conference proposed to accelerate the cultivation of new momentum for foreign trade, consolidate the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment, and expand the export of intermediate goods, services, digital and cross-border e-commerce.
The year-on-year growth rate of China's total foreign trade import and export volume in November further expanded to 12%, the total value of imports and exports increased year-on-year for two consecutive months, and exports also achieved the first positive growth rate since May this year. The export of advantageous products represented by the automobile industry and the "new three" products has become the main support for the recovery of foreign trade at present, and it is also the direction of encouragement in the future. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers**, vehicle exports are expected to reach 4.8 million units in 2023, making it the world's largest automobile exporter. In 2024, vehicle exports are expected to grow further to 5.5 million units.
Several Measures to Accelerate the Integrated Development of Domestic and Foreign Trade" was officially released on December 11. At present, the main way to promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade should be to promote institutional opening-up, benchmark against international high standards, and promote the two-way docking of domestic and foreign regulations and standards. It is necessary to continuously improve the processing system, improve the market procurement method, and promote the reform of regulatory consistency. Speed up the construction of processing sites in the central and western regions, and guide these undertaking places to make full use of the advantages of the super-large-scale domestic market by appropriately increasing the proportion of domestic sales, so as to reduce comprehensive logistics costs on this basis, give full play to the role of internal and external circulation, and cultivate their international competitiveness.
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Editor of this issue: Li Yutong is a Xi Taotao.
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21 Interpretation **The Economic Work Conference released 10 major policy signals.
Detailed explanation of the "progress" and "establishment" released by the ** Economic Work Conference: In 2024, there will be more stable growth policies and a new round of fiscal and tax reforms.
*Interpretation of the Economic Work Conference丨Resolving risks has become the focus of real estate policy, and accelerating the "three major projects" such as affordable housing
* Economic Work Conference: Actively cultivate new consumption growth points such as "trendy products" of domestic products