A few days ago, the "2024 Semiconductor Investment Annual Conference and IC Billboard Award Ceremony" hosted by the Semiconductor Investment Alliance and hosted by Aijiwei was successfully held at the Kerry Hotel in Beijing.
At the meeting, JW Insights released the list of "2023 Top 100 Chinese Semiconductor Enterprises", which comprehensively sorted out the development of China's semiconductor industry in 2023 and conducted an in-depth analysis of the development of wafer foundry and packaging and testing markets.
Utilization rate will increase in 2024, and workers will recover
Since the second half of 2022, due to the poor overall market conditions, weak terminal demand, and the continuous destocking of the ** chain, the overall capacity utilization rate of wafer foundries has been low, which has also affected the overall performance of the wafer foundry market. As of 2023Q3, the global foundry industry revenue is $85.2 billion.
But the "stumbling" trend will not last forever. As the inventory of terminal and IC manufacturers has been digested to a relatively healthy level, coupled with the driving force of AIGC, data center, intelligent driving and other applications, and favorable factors such as smartphones and laptops are picking up, the utilization rate of foundry capacity is gradually increasing, but due to the wide spread of the previous "cold wave", Jiwei Consulting estimates that the revenue of the global wafer foundry industry in 2023 will be 113.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 168%。
On the other hand, due to the continued embargo of the United States and many allies, although some progress has been made in advanced process technologies such as 7nm, the mainstream of the market is still mature process. As of 2023Q3, the revenue of Chinese mainland's wafer foundry industry is 710500 million yuan. Although the mature process volume is large and widespread, it is also facing a certain degree of decline under the influence of the downward cycle. Jiwei Consulting estimates that the revenue of Chinese mainland's wafer foundry industry in 2023 will be 942500 million yuan, down 9% year-on-year.
Among domestic foundry companies, SMIC is still the leading role, and a number of veterans and recruits are also showing their talents. Jiwei Consulting released the top 10 Chinese wafer foundry enterprises in 2023, which are SMIC, Huahong Group, Jinghe Integration, Wuhan Xinxin, Xinlian Integration, China Resources Micro, Jita Semiconductor, Yuexin, Yandong Micro, and Founder Micro.
After getting out of the plot of "going down in the first half and rebounding in the second half" in 2023, the industrial recovery in 2024 seems to be the general trend. Jiwei Consulting pointed out that in 2024, the global and Chinese mainland wafer foundry markets will rebound to varying degrees, thanks to the demand for advanced processes and the improvement of some mature process characteristics, the overall revenue of the global foundry market in 2024 will reach 129 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of **14%. In 2024, the total revenue of the Chinese mainland market will also rise to 110.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of **171%。
From the perspective of production line capacity, domestic foundry enterprises have been accelerating the expansion of production layout in the past few years, and they have been closing in the past one or two years, and will also usher in a new round of "**".
According to data from Jiwei Consulting, as of 2023Q3, the total production capacity of 12-inch wafer manufacturing lines in Chinese mainland is 15690,000 pieces per month, 8-inch total production capacity of 14140,000 tablets per month. It is expected that by 2024, the total production capacity of 12-inch production lines in Chinese mainland will be expanded to 18560,000 pieces per month, and the total production capacity of the 8-inch production line was expanded to 1.45 million pieces per month.
It is worth noting that the competition of the three foundry giants has entered overtime and is competing to develop 2nm chips, although TSMC maintains its global dominance in this field, Samsung Electronics and Intel have seen 2nm as an opportunity to turn around, but Chinese mainland will still focus on mature process expansion.
Jiwei Consulting pointed out that in 2024, some 12-inch new production lines in Chinese mainland will be completed and put into production, including 28-40nm logic production lines and 40-65nm characteristic process production lines. Moreover, due to foreign restrictions on imported equipment and raw materials for domestic advanced processes, including some mature processes, the localization of foundry production lines in Chinese mainland needs to be solved urgently, which requires fabs and equipment and material manufacturers to strengthen cooperation and cooperation.
Strong revenue from packaging and testing Accelerate the deployment of advanced packaging
With the continuous progress of semiconductor technology, packaging technology is also constantly innovating, and new packaging technologies such as TSV, SIP, 2The continuous emergence of 5D 3D and chiplet has provided new development momentum for the semiconductor packaging and testing industry.
Through years of deep cultivation and integration, China's packaging and testing enterprises have become the most internationally competitive link in China's integrated circuit industry chain, and their voice in this field has been continuously enhanced. Among the top 10 packaging and testing leading enterprises in the world in 2022, 4 companies in Chinese mainland are on the list, of which Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huatian Technology are ranked respectively.
III. Fourth, sixth place.
With the advent of the post-Moore era, advanced packaging is becoming the only way to improve the performance of semiconductor products, and has also become an important driving force to promote the agglomeration and development of the domestic integrated circuit industry.
According to the data of Jiwei Consulting, the top 20 packaging and testing companies in China in 2023 are Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, Zhilu Consortium, Tianshui Huatian, Payton Technology, Yongsi Electronics, Shenghe Jingwei, China Resources Micro, Jizhong Technology, Hongmao Micro, Lipuxin, Huicheng Co., Ltd., Jingfang Technology, Blue Arrow Electronics, Huayi Microelectronics, Huayu Electronics, Wannian Core, Qipai Technology, V-SOL Semiconductor, and Jinyu Semiconductor.
Although it is in the semiconductor downward cycle, it is difficult for the packaging and testing industry to stand alone, but the overall performance is still stronger than that of foundry. Jiwei Consulting pointed out that in the first half of 2023, whether it is the operating rate or revenue, the domestic mainstream packaging and testing factories have experienced a certain decline, but after the third quarter, with the increase in orders for some overseas mobile phones and related products, the revenue and utilization rate of packaging and testing factories have rebounded, and the utilization rate has basically remained at 90%-80%. It is estimated that the revenue of China's packaging and testing industry in 2023 will be 306 billion yuan, an increase of 2 percent year-on-year2%。
For the upcoming trend in 2024, Jiwei Consulting believes that with the completion of the construction of some advanced packaging production capacity in China and the recovery of some storage and other markets, the utilization rate of 80% will be basically maintained, and the revenue is estimated to reach 3221 in 2024500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of **53%。
In addition, there is also a new trend in the field of packaging and testing, that is, more and more fabless manufacturers or manufacturers in other parts of the industrial chain have begun to set foot in the field of packaging and testing. According to the statistics of Jiwei Consulting, up to now, more than 20 domestic semiconductor companies such as Chipone, Haowei, Shengbang Co., Ltd., and Aiwei Electronics have announced that they will build their own packaging and testing production lines or test production lines on the original Fabless model.
Nowadays, advanced packaging technology has become a new engine for the development of the semiconductor industry, and compared with traditional packaging, the application of advanced packaging is expanding, and it is expected that by 2026, advanced packaging will account for more than 50% of the entire packaging market. In the case of foreign restrictions on advanced manufacturing processes, chiplet packaging is also expected to become one of the breakthroughs in the adversity of China's semiconductor industry.
Correspondingly, local packaging and testing manufacturers are also continuing to strengthen their layout in the advanced packaging market. Jiwei Consulting believes that the domestic advanced packaging technology is basically highly compatible with local chip products, and the R&D and innovation in the fields of chiplet and other fields are advancing rapidly, and the packaging and testing industry will still provide strong momentum for the domestic semiconductor industry to continue to move forward.