MinAung HyeThe first confidence came from the contempt for the strength of the Kokang Alliance. He believed that the Kokang Allied Army had only more than 10,000 men and had no strong base areas to support. Compare this to MinAung HyeWith the most elite troops and the latest purchased from RussiaAir ForceEquip. He is convinced that with his current oneMilitarystrength, the Kokang allies could not compete with him. The lack of anti-aircraft firearms and missiles in the Kokang Allied Army, and the disparity in strength also became MinAung HyeOne of the most confident ones.
However, we cannot underestimate the combat effectiveness of the Kokang Allied Army, which, despite their small size, was able to give Min the advantage of the terrain on the Burmese border and the tactical flexibility of guerrilla warfareAung HyeIt brings a lot of resistance. Moreover, the Kokang Allied Forces are not short of combat experience, they have been confronting the Burmese ** Army for many years, the most typical example is the Zeng OffensiveNorthern MyanmarThe Panqin incident, which shows that their strength cannot be ignored.
MinAung HyeThe second confidence is that even if he loses China's support, he may still be able to find the support of other powers, and even get what they needEquip. While China has been Myanmar's main diplomatic partner and supporter, MinAung HyeUnderstand that you should not rely too much on China. InInternationalIn affairs, there are no eternal friends, only eternal interests. MinAung HyeIt is possible to look to other countries, especially extraterritorial powers, for support, which is hisMilitaryThe action provided additional contextual support.
However,InternationalThe matter is complex, and it is questionable whether other major powers will be willing to intervene in Myanmar's internal affairs. After all, interference in the internal affairs of other countries involvesInternationalMoral andInternational Lawand other complex factors. Therefore, MinAung HyeThe path to seeking support from other countries is not easy, and he needs to have enough confidence and arguments to convince them.
MinAung HyeThe third confidence is that he believes that as long as there is unityAung San Suu Kyi, let her support the army on his side, then the Naypyidaw area will be relatively safe. In this way, he could concentrate his forces against the Allied forces in the Kokang region. His plan was to first eliminate the allies in the Kokang region, and then firmly control the Kokang region, which would further solidify himself for himArmy**Provide greater confidence. This also illustrates MinAung Hyetrust in the army and his influence in the country.
However,Aung San Suu KyiAs a domestic part of MyanmarPoliticsImportant people, whose positions and intentions are not entirely related to MinAung HyeUnanimous. Aung San Suu KyiShe is certainly the leader of Myanmar, but she also needs to take into account various internal and external factors and the balance of interests of all parties. Especially in the current tense situation in the country, she needs to be cautious and sensitiveAung Hyeto achieve stability and development of the country as a whole.
To sum up, MinAung HyeThe determination to violate the peace talks and provoke a war comes from the confidence of three aspects. First of all, he underestimated the strength of the Kokang Alliance, believing that he could easily defeat his opponent with his elite troops and advanced equipment. Secondly, MinAung HyeCounting on the support of other powers, he believes that he can find other countries to support him, although he faces China's estrangementMilitaryLet's go. Finally, MinAung HyeDependentAung San Suu Kyibelieves that as long as we unite her and get her support, we can get a more stable position and confidence in the country.
However, in fact, MinAung HyeofMilitaryThe action has violated the agreement of the peace talks and has also triggeredInternationalSocietal concerns. No matter how confident you are, provoking a war will always bring huge social costs and destruction. AsInternationalAs members of society, we should promote the peaceful settlement of disputes and avoid the harm caused by war. It is only through dialogue and consultation that the conflict can be resolved in order to achieve lasting peace.