The energy transition will not be achieved overnight, let alone start from scratch, and it is necessary to coordinate the breakthroughs in conventional technology and disruptive technological innovation, support the steady transformation of the energy system, and realize the revolutionary replacement and innovation of energy technology.
Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a multi-dimensional, three-dimensional and systematic project, involving all aspects of economic and social development, and its top-level design is clear and unambiguous. However, the industry generally believes that since the construction drawings and roadmap of the "double carbon" goal have been clear, there has been no consensus on the path and method, rhythm and intensity, local and global dialectical considerations to achieve the goal in the specific implementation, and it is very necessary to focus on the main line of "double carbon" and consider the energy and power development path under the decomposition of the industry and region.
Industry experts said that the energy transition will not be achieved overnight, let alone start from scratch, and it is necessary to coordinate the breakthrough of conventional technology and disruptive technological innovation, support the steady transformation of the energy system, and realize the revolutionary replacement and innovation of energy technology.
Industrial restructuring needs
Resonate at the same frequency with the optimization of the energy system
China's industrial structure is heavy, the energy structure is biased towards coal, energy consumption is still growing rigidly, and the realization of the "double carbon" goal has a large emission reduction and a tight time window, and it is facing huge challenges to achieve large-scale emission reduction in the sustainable development of energy. The industry generally believes that the process of industrial structure adjustment and energy system optimization and co-frequency resonance to achieve the "double carbon" goal is essentially the distribution of responsibility for the transformation of industry, transportation, construction and energy, and power industries under certain carbon emission quotas.
According to the analysis and research of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, China's terminal energy consumption is expected to enter a peak plateau period around 2030, with a peak of about 4.2 billion tons of standard coal. Terminal demand for oil and gas will peak around 2030 and 2035, respectively, and coal consumption will decline steadily.
Wu Mouyuan, vice president of the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation, said at the "Liupu Kang Energy Forum" a few days ago that the characteristics of energy transition in the stage of carbon peak and carbon neutrality are significantly different: before 2030, the energy transition will be dominated by incremental substitution, showing the characteristics of stable coal, slowing oil, and accelerating clean energy;In the carbon neutrality stage, the energy transition is mainly based on stock adjustment, which is manifested in the substitution of coal and oil by non-hydro renewable energy, the scale of fossil energy utilization has decreased significantly, and the power system dominated by non-fossil energy has gradually taken shape.
The level of clean power supply is a key factor in coordinating the carbon peak of power and other industries, and it is very important to formulate strategies scientifically and rationally to achieve the peak of carbon emissions in industry, construction, transportation, power and other sectors. Wang Yaohua, vice president of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, said that China's non-fossil energy power generation accounts for 385%, industry, construction, transportation and other terminal sectors of electric energy substitution to obtain clean environmental benefits, will bring about an increase in the comprehensive carbon emissions of the whole society;When non-fossil energy accounts for more than 40% of power generation, the substitution of electric energy in the terminal sector can appropriately reduce the peak of carbon emissions in the whole society, but the carbon emissions of the power industry will increaseWhen non-fossil energy accounts for more than 60% of power generation, accelerating the promotion of electric energy substitution in the terminal sector will help all sectors of society to rapidly reduce emissions.
Wang Yaohua pointed out that in combination with the expected level of clean power supply, the late peak of carbon emissions in the power industry will help better coordinate the process of power security and carbon emission reduction for the whole society. From the perspective of direct carbon emissions, the industrial sector (including industrial processes) can peak in the "14th Five-Year Plan", the construction sector will peak around 2025, and the transportation sector will peak before 2030. "After 3-5 years, a diversified clean energy system has been basically formed, new energy will replace thermal power more deeply, and electricity carbon emissions will also decline rapidly. ”
Regional cascade carbon peaking
It is conducive to the coordinated development of the region
According to the reporter of China Energy News, East China, North China and Northeast China are expected to achieve power carbon peak earlier than the country, the southern and northwest regions will basically achieve power carbon peak with the whole country, and Central China and Southwest China will achieve power carbon peak later than the country. During the period from carbon peak to carbon neutrality, each region is similar to the whole country, and the carbon reduction path is relatively stable.
Considering the differences in development foundation, resource endowment, strategic positioning, etc., the evolution path of carbon emissions in the power industry in different regions is different. Feng Junshu, a researcher at the State Grid Energy Research Institute, said that in the west, central and other regions that actively undertake industrial transfer, power demand has more room for growth, and it is not appropriate to achieve the peak of power carbon emissions earlier than the country. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and other first-echelon regions leading high-quality development, as well as the northeast region, have a more diversified power structure, and should not achieve the peak of power carbon emissions later than the whole country. "Coordinating the order of carbon peaking between regions means that it may bring the cost of economic development damage to some regions, and will weaken the willingness of regional coordination to reduce emissions, which requires the overall promotion of relevant support policies. ”
According to the research of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, after 2030, a high proportion of distributed new energy has been developed in the east and central regions, and large-scale new energy power generation bases will continue to expand in the northwest and other regions with conditions. In view of the current problems such as the unclear technical path of new energy base development and the low economy in the "Shage Desert" area, it is necessary to adhere to the construction of a "three-in-one" new energy supply and consumption system.
Industry insiders generally believe that in the future, it is necessary to design a reasonable inter-regional carbon quota allocation mechanism, and promote the coordinated development of various regions through a perfect trading mechanism, so as to work together to reduce carbon emissions. In addition, it is also necessary to coordinate the accounting mechanism of energy and power flow and cross-regional carbon flow according to the differences in energy resource endowment and economic development stage in different regions.
Key technological innovations and energy transition
Collaborative layout is required
The amount of carbon budget of the industry represents the responsibility of emission reduction, and also means that the state makes strategic choices for different industries in terms of capital investment, policy support and various resource preferences. In the future, the route layout, breakthrough direction, and breakthrough time of key low-carbon technologies will all lead to path switching. For example, cutting-edge technologies such as new energy storage, CCUS, and hydrogen energy are indispensable in the designed implementation paths, but the R&D breakthroughs and commercial applications of these technologies still face uncertainties.
According to the research of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, under the "dual carbon" goal, "new energy + energy storage" and "coal power + CCUS" are two feasible technical routes that compete. Due to the "saturation effect" of short-term energy storage in terms of maintaining and promoting consumption, the time node and deployment scale of long-term energy storage technology breakthroughs in the future will have a profound impact on the "double carbon" path of energy and power. Assuming that the cross-seasonal energy storage technology achieves a breakthrough in 2030 and begins to be commercially deployed, the installed capacity of new energy in the medium and long term will increase significantly.
The development of different links of technology is not only interdependent, but also needs to match each other at a certain pace. Wu Cong, a researcher at the State Grid Energy Research Institute, said that such as efficient clean energy power generation technology and new energy storage, advanced transmission technology, etc., can meet the requirements of efficient consumption of new energy, hydrogen energy development and utilization technology should be matched with the application technology of hydrogen energy in industry, transportation, electric power and other fields, and the promotion and application of terminal electrification technology should match the development rhythm of clean technology on the supply side, so as to achieve coordinated carbon reduction. "Therefore, under the 'dual carbon' goal, we must carry out strategic and planning coordination between the transformation path and the scientific and technological layout with a systematic concept. ”
Text |Reporter of this newspaper Sunan.