After half a year of running-in, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken finally set the agenda for his visit to China. **After Foreign Minister Qin Gang's phone call with Blinken, he announced on the evening of June 15 that "as agreed by China and the United States, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China on June 18-19."
This is a short but important piece of news about the most tense U.S.-China relationship at the moment. Many people may have been surprised by this result, including me, and did not expect Blinken to actually come. But since this is the case, let's analyze the background and significance of this visit.
First of all, we want to note two details of the *** statement. The first detail is the word "agreed", which shows that Blinken's visit to China is not an unsolicited invitation from China, but a strong request from the United States. Since the "balloon incident" at the end of last year, the United States has been promoting Blinken's visit to China, and has expressed the importance and sense of urgency that the United States attaches to China-US relations through various official and ** signals. China has always maintained calm and restraint in this regard, and has not easily agreed or refused, but has asked the United States to improve its China policy and words and deeds before dialogue.
The word "agreed" is China's response to the United States, which means that the United States can come whenever you want, but you must be sincere, respect China's core interests, and have a constructive attitude, otherwise the talks will not continue.
The second detail is that the duration of Blinken's visit to China is only two days, and in fact only one day is valid. This is also very rare, generally speaking, the state visit will last more than three days, so that the two sides can have in-depth exchanges and cooperation, especially for the relationship between a big country like China and the United States, time is a precious resource. China only gave Blinken two days to imply that the current Sino-US relationship has reached a very sensitive and crisis stage, and there is not much that the two sides can talk about, unless the United States can make some substantive changes.
In short, this sentence of the ** statement has already revealed China's basic attitude towards Blinken's visit to China, that is, welcome to come, but don't expect too much. So, what did Blinken want to talk about when he came to China?I think there are three aspects.
One is the change in the international situation, especially the situation in Ukraine. Ukraine has recently launched a **, and the escalation of the conflict with Russia has aroused the attention and concern of the international community. The United States, as a supporter of Ukraine, also wants to know China's views and positions on the region, and whether China will support Russia.
The second is the predicament in the United States, especially the problem of US debt. Although the United States has temporarily resolved the crisis of the US debt ceiling, it has not fundamentally solved the fiscal deficit and debt problems. The U.S. economic and financial system is like a ticking time bomb that could erupt at any time. Therefore, the United States urgently needs to maintain good economic and trade relations with China, and hopes that China will continue to hold US bonds and provide financial support to the United States.
The third is the future of Sino-US relations, especially the possibility of a meeting between the Chinese and US leaders. After taking office, Biden expressed his hope to improve relations with China and achieve a balance between cooperation and competition. The third purpose of Blinken's visit to China is likely to be to prepare for the China-US summit and strive to achieve this important meeting within this year. Of course, Blinken will also mention the "Taiwan Strait issue" and hope that China will not take military action against Taiwan.
Finally, I personally do not have much hope for the outcome and impact of Blinken's visit to China. China has clearly expressed its position that if China and the United States want to talk, they must talk about practical matters and core issues, and they cannot just put on a show and do things perfunctorily. But I doubt that the United States can truly understand and respect China's meaning. On the eve of Blinken's visit to China, the United States is still carrying out various provocations and suppression against China, such as sending reconnaissance planes, sanctioning Chinese companies, and conducting "evacuation of overseas Chinese" Xi the Taiwan Strait.