If this round of property market is to be reversed, it will definitely appear in the four first-tier cities!If the first-tier cities are not good and can't get better, then relying on the second-tier, third- and fourth-tier cities is even more unreliable. Therefore, the hope for the recovery of the property market is pinned on Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, even if there is a recovery benchmark first. Suppose the day the market bottoms out, no matter whenWho do you think will be the turn of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou?Let's start with the policy side. 1. Purchase restriction level:Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are restricted from purchasing in the whole city, and Guangzhou is currently only restricted from purchasing in the core areas (Yuexiu, Haizhu, Liwan, Tianhe, Baiyun, Nansha).
2. Restricted sales level:Beijing is restricted for 5 years, Shanghai is limited to 5 years, Shenzhen is limited to 3 years, and Guangzhou is limited to 2 years. 3. Down payment ratio:For the first house, the latest policy in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is a down payment of 30%. For second suites, 40% down payment in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, 50% in Beijing and Shanghai, and 40% in Beijing and Shanghai. 4. The lower limit of commercial loan interest rate:The interest rate for the first home is the lowest in Beijing at 42%, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen are all 41%；The interest rate for second homes is the lowest in Beijing75%, and the lowest in Shanghai is 44%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 45%；In contrast, you will find that among the four major first-tier cities, who is currently easing the most policies?Guangzhou. The most pressure on the market recovery, the most difficult, is also Guangzhou. Guangzhou's latest new policy was on November 15, the first to break the purchase limit, and the first to reduce the down payment. A month has passed, has there been a significant improvement in Guangzhou?Not really. In November 2023, the sales area of new houses in Guangzhou will be 5850,000, down 186%。
You see, after a relaxation, sales fell by two percent. And the Guangzhou policy is basically nothing to put away, so a conclusion can be drawn:——Assuming that this round of property market rebounds, it will not appear in Guangzhou first, and Guangzhou will be excluded first!Let's take a look at the recent market performance of the other three first-tier cities:Shanghai——New home sales in November were 1.03 million, a month-on-month increase of 146%；New home sales from January to November were 1268370,000, a year-on-year increase of **02%；Beijing——New home sales in November were 50010,000, down 155%；New home sales from January to November were 679590,000, down 46%；Shenzhen——New home sales in November 27680,000, 6 month-on-month0%；New home sales from January to November were 293980,000, down 112%；In Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the first thing to do is to exclude Beijing, which has relatively high market pressure and sales are not optimistic. Then Shenzhen and Shanghai are left. After a new round of policy relaxation in Shenzhen not long ago, there has been a wave of rebound in new and second-hand houses, even if the magnitude is not large, and the marginal effect is decreasingAnd even before this new deal, Shanghai had a good increase in November or from January to November, and there was just another wave of new deals. To sum up, according to the current situation, Shanghai's winning side is even greater!