250gw / 701gwh
Bloomberg New Energy Finance's China cumulative energy storage capacity by the end of 2030**.
The ratio of China's annual energy storage capacity (in GW) for energy time-shift applications to the capacity of large-scale ground-mounted PV and wind power projects from 2023 to 2030.
China is in the midst of an energy storage boom, and we expect the global new demand for energy storage to be about 629 from 2022 to 20259GWh, of which the new energy storage demand for power generation side, grid side, user side, 5G base station, and other auxiliary services is 190GWh and 34, respectively4gwh、364.9gwh、30.3gwh、10.4gwh。
Many places in China have issued policy standards for the configuration of energy storage in wind and solar power stations, and the mandatory distribution and storage ratio is mostly 10% and the duration is 2 hours. While policy mandates may be the driving factor for installations in the short term, improved business models and cost reductions are likely to drive more economy-led installations after 2025.
China has overtaken the United States to become the world's largest energy storage market in 2022. According to market estimates, the energy storage capacity of China's five largest power companies – Huaneng Group, Huadian Group, State Energy Investment Group, State Power Investment Group, Datang Group – has expanded to a total of 124 GW 25 GWh. On December 15, the National Petroleum Pipeline Network Group invested 5 billion yuan to establish the Energy Storage Technology of the National Pipeline Network Group in Shanghai
China will continue to lead the global energy storage capacity increase this decade.
Despite strong growth, the development of battery storage in China is still driven by policy rather than economy. For any new renewable energy project to be approved for grid connection, renewable energy developers must build or lease new energy storage installations. These projects are barely being used, resulting in very low utilization rates and little economic significance.
After 2025, the economics of energy storage projects are likely to increase with the development of new business models and the gradual marketization of China's electricity market. Battery storage projects may generate new revenues**, such as capacity payments, energy arbitrage, peak shaving, and ancillary services payments.
Driven by a significant increase in installed wind and photovoltaic capacity, energy time-shifted applications will account for nearly 80% of new energy storage projects in 2023. User-side services, transmission and distribution, and ancillary services contributed % and 5% of the total, respectively. Driven by widening peak-to-valley spreads and improved economics, we expect commercial and industrial applications to play a greater role in the coming years.
In order to achieve healthy development of the energy storage industry in the future, we must accelerate the construction of market-oriented revenue channels for energy storage enterprises, and continuously enrich and stabilize these channels. In the future, more provinces will open electricity spot markets, and after the opening, independent energy storage power stations should be actively recruited to participate in market transactions. Second, it is still difficult for energy storage power stations to participate in the power auxiliary service market, and most provinces only have top-level design and lack of implementation details. It is suggested that relevant departments should increase their support for the energy storage industry, strictly assess the implementation of new energy and strong energy storage, and formulate operable, traceable, and reward-and-punish market rules according to local conditions.
In any case, under the global carbon neutrality goal, clean energy will gradually replace fossil energy, and wind power and photovoltaic power generation will become the absolute main force of clean energy. In the new power system, energy storage will become a vital part, a necessary guarantee for new energy consumption and grid security, and the future demand space is huge.
*: Energy storage power station.