At noon today, Li Bei, the founder of Banxia Investment and known as the witch of private equity, published the latest views on his ***, reminding investors to stay away from the small tail market and not return after escaping the fire.
This directly points out that the small and micro market is the CSI 2000 and lower market capitalization, in the early stage because of the liquidity risk of the small and micro market, part of the funds have gone out, but the recent trend of the CSI 2000 index is particularly strong, and today's intraday increase is more than 3%.
If calculated from the lowest point of this wave of 1500 points, the CSI 2000 Index has now reached 1967 points, it can be said that the cumulative range since February 6 has exceeded 30%, this short-term rapid profit margin is indeed far away from investors, there is enough power.
So Li Bei's point of view is that the CSI 2000 and lower market capitalization ** are the fire ground, and you have left, so don't return.
For example, the latest price-earnings ratio of the current CSI 2000 is 54 times, 5 times that of the CSI 300, and 3 times that of the CSI 500, which actually means that the valuation of micro-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 is higher, so the risks contained are greater.
There are also macro-level factors, the future regulatory direction will be more severe to crack down on market manipulation, which includes financial fraud and market manipulation, and there will be more cases of punishment and crackdown, and small and micro disks may be the hardest hit area; In addition, if the proportion of delistings increases this year, small and micro disks will also become the hardest hit areas; Quant **'s operating style is mainly micro-cap stocks, which are now clearly regulated, and the probability of scale expansion in the future is not high, which will also bring negative effects to micro-cap stocks.
Now let's talk about my personal opinion:
First, Li Bei's formulation and grasp of the macro level is no problem, it is true that after the loss of liquidity of the micro-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000, it has given the market a relatively big lesson, and now the funds seem to be focused on the high dividend level represented by the special valuation, from this point of view, it is beneficial to the blue chips represented by the CSI 300, especially the high-dividend varieties.
But we can think about it from another angle, the current CSI 2000 as the representative of the micro-cap stocks in the style and blue chips have formed a huge difference, the mainstream of the market is high dividends, it is precisely this phenomenon that shows that the market's risk appetite is relatively low, whether it is for the economic level, or the future earnings growth of listed companies, the choice of high dividends actually chooses to avoid risks, in this case, of course, the micro-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 are not good, so as to see Li Bei's view is right.
However, there is one thing we must be fully psychologically prepared, if with the increase in the rescue efforts, after the market risk appetite increases, the current high dividend will still be attractive, I think there will be another scenario, so that the current CSI 2000 as the representative of the micro-cap stocks trend is not good, this should not be a style problem, but the risk appetite has not switched back.
Just imagine, the economy is always good, there will be an increase in risk appetite, and the style represented by growth will come back at that time.
Second, the current trend of the CSI 2000 index is obviously not a problem of the micro-cap stock index, you will find that independent of other broad-based indexes, such as GEM, CSI 500, CSI 1000, etc., from the slope of the form, CSI 2000 has appeared 6 consecutive positive lines, if the first three positive lines have been boosted by rescue funds, and from the trend of the last three trading days, there seems to be no trace of rescue funds, which is completely driven by the constituent stocks of the index.
You can take a look at the ChiNext index, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which are basically sideways, but the CSI 2000 index is particularly strong, I think behind this is the strength of artificial intelligence, after all, a large part of the relevant concept is the market value of the micro cap, which is reflected in the CSI 2000 index is strong.
Besides, artificial intelligence is the direction advocated by the state, and the relevant departments have said before that central enterprises should be at the forefront in the field of artificial intelligence, and the current CSI 2000 index represents artificial intelligence, which is also in line with the policy direction, is it to stay away, or follow up?
To sum up briefly, I think it's best not to look at a thing to the extreme, the liquidity risk experienced by micro-cap stocks in the past period is where the regulatory loophole lies, and micro-cap stocks may not be without this loophole in the future. If the current high dividend rises, it is still necessary to stay away, and the A** market must have a value investment concept, but before the system is not perfected, it is still necessary to measure it from the perspective of timing.
Disclaimer: The content in the article is for reference only and does not constitute any operational advice or tips.