At the end of last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development pointed out that efforts should be made to stabilize the "two pillars" of the real estate industry and the construction industry.
At the end of January this year, the relevant person in charge of the State Financial Supervision Bureau said that "the real estate industry chain is long, involves a wide range, has an important impact on the national economy, and is closely related to the lives of the people, and the financial industry is duty-bound and must be vigorously supported."
So, how important is real estate to be worthy of the official definition of a "pillar industry"? In order to make the policy "strongly supportive"? Let's find out by a few numbers.
part.1
Real estate and its related industries support 20% of GDP
According to statistics, there are more than 60 upstream and downstream related industries of real estate, and the proportion of real estate and upstream and downstream output value in GDP will reach 19% in 2020, and only the real estate and construction industries will accommodate 15% of the country's employment.
It can be said that real estate and the macro economy "prosper and lose".
Therefore, if the real estate industry is unstable, the market demand for housing is sluggish, and housing prices are down, real estate sales will be sluggish, and the development of real estate and its related industries will be sluggish, which will produce a large number of unemployment, affecting the growth of residents' income and GDP.
part.2
Half of local government revenues come from real estate.
I believe everyone is familiar with the word "land finance". Generally speaking, it means that the fiscal revenue of the local government depends to a large extent on the income from "land sales". In addition, a considerable proportion of local fiscal revenue is related to the real estate industry.
According to agency estimates, in 2020, 55% of the local ** fiscal revenue will be related to real estate. That is, at its peak, real estate-related revenues accounted for more than half of local fiscal revenues.
In the past two years, the proportion of real estate has declined, but it will also be 35% in 2023. The news of the suspension of public transportation, the downsizing of civil servants, and the inability to pay wages in a certain place on the Internet are also mostly caused by the downturn in real estate in recent years and the inability of local governments to make ends meet.
part.3
More than 20% of bank loans are related to real estate.
At the end of the third quarter of last year, 23% of all bank loan balances were real estate loans, including personal housing loans and real estate development loans, a proportion that peaked at 29%.
Not only that, in the past, housing prices continued to be the best, houses and land are good collateral, and when enterprises apply for business loans from banks, a large proportion of them also use real estate or real estate as collateral.
The stability of real estate is related to the stability of the entire financial system.
If the real estate sector is unstable, housing prices are obvious, and the value of collateral depreciates, bank assets will shrink significantly; In addition, housing prices increase the risk of default of lenders or enterprises, such as the successive explosions of China's real estate companies in recent years, resulting in an increase in the bank's bad debt rate and asset losses. If bank assets are significantly damaged, there will be insufficient liquidity in the system, which will trigger a systemic financial crisis.
part.4
Nearly 60% of household wealth is in real estate.
According to the relevant survey data of the central bank in 2019, real estate accounts for about 59% of the household wealth of urban residents in China. The stability of real estate is related to the stability of residents' wealth.
Some people may say that the house is for living, and even the price of the house does not affect the value of the residence. This statement is biased.
The central bank data also showed that 77 percent of indebted urban households had a home loan. It can be seen that the house is both an asset and a liability. If the value of the property plummets, households with mortgages may become "insolvent" and become negative equity, and banks will require them to increase their collateral or repay the loan early, putting the debtor under great financial pressure.
Even if there is no mortgage, the sharp drop in housing prices will lead to the shrinkage of residents' wealth, and show a state of "less consumption, no consumption, and low desire", which is not conducive to economic development.
At present, China's real estate is in the throes of transformation, but China's real estate has basically passed the most difficult moment, and the market will gradually improve.
On the one hand, we see that real estate is related to economic growth, local finance, the stability of the financial system and national wealth, penetrating all aspects of the economy and society, and affecting the whole body, so China's policy will actively work to resolve risks, ensure a soft landing of real estate, and promote the stabilization and recovery of the property market. It can be seen that in the past year or so, the policies at both ends of the supply and demand of the property market and macroeconomic policies have made concerted efforts to support the property market.
On the other hand, China's economic growth momentum and urbanization space and other fundamentals are still strong, including the new demand brought about by population urbanization, the demand for improvement and urban renewal of the housing demand is still considerable, especially for the real estate market in large cities where the population flows into the real estate market can still maintain an optimistic attitude.