During the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon, two news about marriage and childbirth appeared on the hot list. First, the number of marriage registrations in many places will stop falling and rebound in 2023, and the Year of the Dragon is expected to have a "small peak of fertility". For example, Huaibei City, Anhui Province, will handle a total of 21,179 marriage registrations in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9187%；In Liuyang City, Hunan Province, a total of 5,443 marriage registrations will be handled in 2023, an increase of 458 couples over 2022, which is the first time since 2015 that the decline has stopped. Taiyuan, Shanxi, Xuchang, Henan, Suzhou, Changzhou, Wuxi and other places in Jiangsu will also see a significant increase in the number of marriage registrations in 2023.
Second, according to CCTV reports, "dragon babies" have been born one after another, and this year may welcome a small peak of childbirth. Just after 0:00 on February 10, a number of obstetrics and gynecology hospitals in Shanghai have ushered in "dragon babies", as of 8 o'clock in the morning, a total of 9 "dragon babies" were born in the obstetrics and gynecology hospital affiliated to Fudan University.
The number of marriage registrations in China has declined for many years, and the number of births hit a new low last year (9.02 million). Some experts believe that this means that China's policies to support marriage and childbirth in building a childbirth-friendly society have begun to take effect. Other experts believe that the number of marriage registrations increased last year, and the number of "dragon babies" is expected to increase this year, which may be related to the traditional concept of marriage and childbirth. In short, it is necessary to make long-term efforts to increase the willingness of young people of appropriate age to marry and have children, and effectively reduce the pressure on marriage, childbearing, parenting, and education.
According to the "2022 Statistical Communiqué on the Development of Civil Affairs" issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, 683 marriage registrations will be handled in accordance with the law in 202250,000 pairs, down 106, falling below 7 million couples for the first time, is the number of marriage registrations in China has declined for 9 consecutive years. The number of marriage registrations nationwide in 2023 has not yet been released, and the big data of marriage registrations reported by various places can be used as a reference for analyzing the trend of marriage registrations in 2023. Overall, considering that the marriage of some school-age young people from 2020 to 2022 was affected by the epidemic, it is reasonable that the number of marriage registrations nationwide will increase in 2023.
The increase in the number of marriage registrations in many places in 2023 and the expected increase in the number of births in 2024 are also related to the concept of marriage and childbearing among the people. According to reports, the year of the dragon (2024) is a "year without spring", and the folk call the year without the "beginning of spring" solar term in a year as the "widow year", although this is caused by the calendar deduction between the lunar calendar and the solar calendar, and has nothing to do with good fortune and misfortune, weddings and funerals, but many people are still affected by traditional folk concepts such as "widow years are not suitable for marriage", and get married in advance in the Year of the Rabbit (2023). In terms of fertility, 2024, also known as the "Year of the Green Dragon", not only carries rich meanings such as "good luck and peace", but also places expectations for new life and a beautiful vision for the future.
The above explanation shows that many young people of appropriate age still choose to marry and have children, which is still influenced by the traditional concept of marriage and childbearing. If the above explanation is in line with the actual situation, then it can be speculated that the number of marriage registrations in 2024 is likely to be ** again, and the number of births in 2025 is also likely to decline again. If this speculation is finally "implemented", then the increase in the number of marriage registrations in 2023 and the expected increase in the number of "dragon babies" in the Year of the Dragon will be short-lived**. In order to increase the willingness of young people of appropriate age to marry and have children, we must not rely on "external opportunities" such as "blessings in the year of the dragon", but must seriously solve the fundamental problems that affect the willingness of young people of appropriate age to marry and have children.
This year's No. 1 document proposed: adhere to the combination of dredging and blocking, treat both the symptoms and the root causes, innovate the carrier of changing customs and customs, give full play to the role of villagers' autonomy, and continue to promote the comprehensive management of outstanding problems such as high dowries, large-scale operations, and scattered burials; Encourage all localities to make use of comprehensive rural service venues to provide inclusive social services for farmers' weddings, funerals, and other services, to reduce the burden on rural people. In the No. 1 document in 2019, "sky-high bride price" was named for the first time, and it has always been one of the key issues in rural governance in recent years. This year's No. 1 document also included rural fertility support into the work arrangement for the first time, proposing to strengthen rural fertility support and infant care services, and do a good job in caring for migrant children, left-behind children, women, the elderly, and the disabled.
In order to change the concept of marriage and childbearing among young people of appropriate age and improve their willingness to marry and have children, especially their willingness to have children, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive and complete support system. The "Decision of the Communist Party of China on Optimizing the Fertility Policy and Promoting the Long-term Balanced Development of the Population" issued in June 2021 proposes to establish a policy system to support active childbirth and reduce the cost of childbirth, parenting, and education. In recent years, various localities have successively introduced policies to support active childbirth, including extending maternity leave, childbirth subsidies, etc., on this basis, more practical and hard measures should be taken to promote the establishment of a childbirth-friendly society in an all-round way and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.
* Beijing Youth Daily.
Edited by Chen Yangyu.
Editor-in-charge: Xiang Yu and Xu Yunhan.
Review by Hou Qinghua.
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