According to the domestic ** report, the Shanghai Composite Index ** rose by 097% to close at 295096 points; The Shenzhen Component Index** rose by 079% to close at 897597 points; The GEM index rose by 036% to close at 175248 points. CSI 300***135% to close at 345687 points, with a turnover of 2918$2.4 billion. The net inflow of northbound funds on the day was 1359.5 billion.
In the article "What's Wrong with **" published at noon on February 6, 2024, Blood Drink analyzed that ** must meet two conditions, and the restriction of short-selling mechanism is one of the conditions. According to the analysis in the article, "in July 2015, it was the intervention of the Ministry of Public Security to crack down on short-selling that finally stabilized **, and the blow was the HOMS system and high-frequency trading and other short-selling tools that were cracked down that year. At present**To stabilize and rebound, the country must crack down on excessive short-selling high-frequency quantitative trading, etc., and shift the balance to the bulls, even if the balance of power between long and short is temporarily restored, in order to effectively prevent **"Among these two conditions, especially the second condition, **will be substantially **, and shareholders can enter the market**" screenshot is as follows:
The subsequent changes are fully in line with the previous analysis logic and are quickly verified!
More than an hour after the article was published on February 6, at half past one in the afternoon of the same day, the national public security department began to crack down on illegal short-selling. After that, it began to rise rapidly, with more than 4,000 on the day
On February 7, the China Securities Regulatory Commission changed its leadership, and Wu Qing replaced Yi Huiman and officially took office, and continued on the same day.
On February 9, the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission released the information that the China Securities Regulatory Commission adheres to "zero tolerance" law enforcement and focuses on dealing with violations by multiple practitioners", and imposed administrative penalties on more than 100 people.
For three consecutive days, the shareholders who had fallen finally saw hope. As a result, on February 19, the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon, the ** index broke through 2,900 points, and as of February 21**, the index almost exceeded 3,000 points.
[**Decisive factors for long-term trends].
In the continuous **, there are bull market voices in the market again, and readers are also very concerned about the trend of ** the whole year of 2024. This article is about to appear Qilianyang, and conducts an independent analysis of the future** for everyone's multi-dimensional thinking.
Since the short-term needs the Fed to cut interest rates and limit the short-selling mechanism, although the current short-term policy has once again restored the long-short balance, the long-term trend does not depend solely on our domestic policy, but is largely affected by the direction of the US dollar monetary policy.
Under the current pattern of international monetary reserves, only when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates will it truly open the road to sustainability.
[Where is the Fed headed?].
So, what exactly is the Fed's path to rate cuts in 2024?
In the article "Cutting Interest Rates or Raising Interest Rates" on December 14, 2023, the author made it clear that the Fed's monetary policy in 2024 will continue to raise interest rates or maintain a high interest rate policy, and will not move towards interest rate cuts.
At present, this ** has been first supported by the Fed's decision. At the January Fed meeting, Fed leader Jerome Powell made it clear that there would be no rate cuts until March.
After that, the head horse of Jewish capital, Goldman Sachs Group**, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in May, which seems to further strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, but this expectation has been hit by a huge "cold snap".
On February 2, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 35 percent in January30,000 people, not only well above the consensus expectation of 1850,000, and above all analysts' expectations, the number of jobs in December rose from 21 previously60,000 people revised up to 3330,000 people. The strong employment data hit rate cut expectations directly.
At the same time, the US revised the CPI and PPI data again, and the two big data** represent a resurgence in inflation, which further strengthens the expectation of interest rate hikes.
On February 16, as a whistleblower on high inflation in the United States, former ** Samos said in an interview that the Fed's next step is likely to raise interest rates and raise interest rates, rather than cut interest rates and cut interest rates, and said that the probability of the Fed's monetary policy returning to raise interest rates is 15%.
It's not just Samos, but many Wall Street investment banks have also made investors wary of the risk of the Fed raising interest rates.
Kit Juckes, an analyst at Société Générale, believes that the Fed has "no reason to rush" to cut interest rates. If the U.S. economy re-accelerates, the Fed's next interest rate decision is likely to be a rate hike rather than a cut.
Mark Nash, macro manager at British asset management giant Jupiter Asset Management, believes that there is a 20% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates rather than cut them, and he believes that strong consumer demand and the prospect that companies may increase spending may exacerbate inflation risks again.
From the analysis of financial professionals in the United Kingdom, the United States and France, it can be seen that the market expects the probability of the Fed restarting interest rate hikes at 15%-20%. Under the double whammy of the strong U.S. economy and inflation**, Wall Street's long-held expectations of interest rate cuts have been hit hard.
A few weeks ago, the market was so widely expected that an imminent rate cut was so common that Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly warned that a rate cut in March was unlikely. Less than three weeks later, traders have not only ruled out a rate cut in March, but also looks unlikely in May. Swaps show that even the market's confidence in a rate cut in June is wavering.
[The bellwether of the Fed's interest rate hike].
In terms of monetary policy**, the deadliest blow came from New Zealand.
In the context of high inflation in New Zealand, compared with the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, New Zealand may take the lead in raising interest rates before February 28, becoming the first country to break policy consistency. By April, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise the cash rate to 6%.
Historically, the Five Eyes Alliance has been the forerunner of the Fed's monetary policy pivot, and there are traces of this, and blood drink has always used this as one of the observation indicators.
In 1979, the United Kingdom took the lead in raising interest rates, and then the United States followed suit, and the Fed raised interest rates to 22% in 1980 compared to 1986.
The Fed raised interest rates at the end of 2015 and the central banks of the United Kingdom and Australia first, followed by the Fed.
Before the start of the current round of interest rate hikes that began in March 2022, Australia and New Zealand were the first to raise interest rates, and then the Federal Reserve followed suit.
Now, New Zealand, which also belongs to the Five Eyes Alliance, is brewing an interest rate hike, which is very likely to be a landmark event for the Fed's monetary policy to turn again.
As expected, at 3 a.m. Beijing time on February 22, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting for January 20241, and most Feds** expressed concerns about the option of "cutting interest rates earlier", believing that the risk of this action is significantly higher than keeping interest rates high.
[2024 **Trend].
Changes in Fed policy will have a direct impact on the direction of 2024. Judging from current market expectations, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates before June this year is decreasing. This casts a shadow over A-shares** in 2024.
It is expected that this round of ** will reach around 3120. After that, the dishes will be washed repeatedly. Among them, special attention should be paid to stock selection, and the index will fall into a vicious circle. From July 2020 to the end of February 2021, this was the case**.
In the future, if the Fed follows up with New Zealand's interest rate hike, then the Fed will start raising interest rates again after a year, which will comprehensively suppress the A-share ** range from the top.
At the same time, the interest rate hike itself will have a major impact on the global economy, including China, and have a profound impact on the domestic property market, bond market, and exchange rate.
[The power of the air side should not be underestimated].
One of the important reasons for this is the concern about future economic development.
China **obviously* began in March 2022, the same month that the Fed officially raised interest rates.
In the course of this round of interest rate hikes, the Fed quickly raised interest rates to 525%。It was the Fed's most violent and aggressive rate hike in 30 years.
The impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on China is relatively large. If you think about it carefully, you will find that after the interest rate hike began, the RMB exchange rate increased from 64 depreciated to 73, the property market is also slowly declining in the gloom, not to mention, so far, the deepest has exceeded 1100 points and reappeared in the 1,000-share limit, the bond market, local debt financing has exceeded 9 trillion, if you add special national bonds and other more than 100,000, you must know that the total amount of local debt in 2015 is only 13 trillion.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the epidemic have led to a strong impact on China's economy in the four major markets of stocks, bonds, real estate, and foreign exchange, and everyone feels that it is becoming more and more difficult to make money!
In the long run, the challenges facing China's economy in 2024 will still exist.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics on February 8, China's CPI fell 0.0 year-on-year in January8%, PPI fell 2 year-on-year5%。This is the double drop that blood drinks feared in the previous article, which is direct evidence of sluggish manufacturing and consumption.
On February 20, 2024, the central bank announced a 25bp cut in LPR for more than 5 years, which is another interest rate cut by the central bank. Although it is an asymmetric interest rate cut, the interest rate cut itself shows that China's manufacturing and consumption are in urgent need of an interest rate cut to boost, which is a direct policy response to the double drop on February 8.
Logically, given the disappointing January data, it is imperative to boost the economy as soon as possible in order to lay the groundwork for a good start to the economy in March.
In the global environment, the domestic economy must recover quickly, otherwise, the lack of information and the widening interest rate differential between the Fed's high interest rates and China's low interest rate cuts will lead to a pessimistic exodus of domestic capital. Similarly, in **, capital will also be treated negatively, which will invisibly amplify the power of the short side.
[Why the stock market crash is in January].
I don't know if you have noticed, the time of the stock market crash is often in January every year, why is this?
From an accounting point of view, January is the time point when the remittances and loans are due at the end of each year, and this time is also the time to look forward to and evaluate the economic prospects of the next year.
When it is harder to make money, more debts are mounting, and future economic expectations are becoming more and more pessimistic, capital flight will accelerate in the face of external US debt and dollar deposits**.
The Fed's choice to restart interest rate hike expectations again in January 2024 is to hit China's economic confidence. At the same time, raising interest rates to further widen the interest rate differential between China and the United States is a direct incentive for our domestic capital outflow.
In order to prevent the United States from raising interest rates, it is necessary to boost China's economic confidence as soon as possible, and the most direct way is to counterattack financially.
[The financial war between China and the United States].
The United States has raised interest rates frantically, and high interest rates have lasted for two years, which has had a huge impact on our economy.
China will not sit still. To effectively fight back, we must find a starting point in monetary policy.
This grip is in the Middle East, and they are the "arc of resistance" led by Iran and the Houthis. Why can the "distant water" of geography quench the "near thirst" of finance?
* The long-term trend depends on the direction of the Fed's monetary policy in the second half of the year, and the Fed's decision-making mainly depends on the level of inflation, which in turn depends on the bulk products represented by the Federal Reserve. If you don't recognize this logic, you will never be able to see through the true direction of the Fed's monetary policy, and you will never find the door of life and death.
The reason why the recent interest rate hike is expected to rise again is directly due to the international oil price**, which has reached $76 in the United States, approaching $80. Once the international oil price exceeds $80, it means that it has entered the high oil price range.
From the perspective of the Fed's monetary policy, it has been suppressing international oil prices to curb inflation. But U.S. efforts have been met with a strong backlash from the "arc of resistance" that supports Hamas and is dominated by Iran and the Houthis.
According to the Observer, on February 19, local time, Yemen's Houthi rebels issued a statement saying that they had hit a British cargo ship and two American cargo ships in the past 24 hours, of which the British cargo ship "has been completely sunk."
The Houthi attacks have led to higher prices for Western ** and other logistics passing through the Red Sea shipping lanes, which directly raised international oil prices and sniped at the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The United States is now caught in a strategic dilemma.
If Israel is defended, it will inevitably lead to a Houthi attack and a sharp rise in oil prices, and a sharp rise in oil prices will inevitably lead to a sniping of monetary policy.
Abandoning Israel will inevitably lead to the liquidation of the Democratic Party by Jewish capital through events such as Loli Island, and this year is still the first year, which offends Jewish capital and will not protect the regime.
Once Trump is brought to power, a mess, especially to raise taxes on China and defend Israel with all his might to offend the Houthis, will lead to a sharp increase in oil prices across the board, and inflation will flood the US economy.
Trump will further expand the fiscal sector, which will lead to the total bankruptcy of the Fed's quantitative tightening QT policy to reduce its balance sheet. By then, the United States will attract back more than 1$5 trillion will flow out of the United States again.
The current Biden is afraid of wolves and tigers, and he can't clean up the Houthi, and he doesn't dare to offend Jewish capital.
[Two hidden piles buried in the Middle East].
On the frontal battlefield, although there are many unfavorable factors for the United States, at the same time, the factors that are favorable to the United States in the dark war are also on the rise.
One of the favorable factors comes from the "moles" planted by the United States in Arab countries.
According to reference sources, on February 8**, Yemen's Houthis said that the Houthis are ready to start a direct conflict with the Israel Defense Forces to help the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip if neighboring countries provide land corridors.
The Houthis are located in Yemen, and in order to cross the land to reach Palestine and directly fight the Israeli army, it is necessary to pass through Saudi Arabia and the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt before passing through the Rafah crossing to rescue the residents of Gaza who are being subjected to Israeli ethnicity.
However, as mentioned in the previous article, Egypt's ** Sisi is a hidden Jew and a ** person supported by the United States, and Saudi Crown Prince Salman is the king of Zionism. Both sides ostensibly support the Palestinians, but they will never use the Houthis to fight the IDF directly through their own territory.
As long as the Houthis do not use the channel, then the Houthi attack on Israel can only be limited to the Red Sea area, and the impact on international oil prices will be relatively limited. For international oil prices**, the US Energy Agency can suppress it through production increase data, or it can manipulate it through the New York and London exchanges, so that the oil price** caused by the Houthi attack is limited to less than $80 per barrel.
In addition to this, the United States is considering concessions to Iran to further suppress international oil prices. In January, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly stated that it was wrong to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, signaling the U.S. intention to revive the Iran nuclear deal.
Once the JCPOA is restored, Iran's 4 million barrels** of production will crush international oil prices. In July 2015, after the signing of the nuclear deal between the United States and Iran, the international oil price fell from $65 to $26 in January 2016.
[Iran may directly hit Israel].
The Houthis' attacks on Anglo-American and Israeli targets on their doorstep perfectly illustrate the iron law that truth is only within the range of artillery.
At the same time, since the Houthi artillery can only hit the Red Sea region, it is also determined that the impact of the Houthi attack on US finance is also limited to the Red Sea region. To snipe at the Fed's monetary policy on a larger scale, a longer-range cannon is needed, and this "cannon" is Iran's missile.
According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency on February 5**, Iranian Navy Commander Irani recently revealed that China, Russia, and Iran will hold a joint maritime exercise before the end of the end of Iran's traditional calendar, that is, before March 19.
On February 13, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps simulated a surface-to-surface ballistic missile attack on Israel's Palmahim airbase south of Tel Aviv in central Iran, according to Iranian state television.
The central part of Iran mentioned in the report is speculated to be the Kermansha missile base, because this is the location of the mausoleum of Major General Soleimani.
On January 3, 2024, on the anniversary of Soleimani's death, Israel orchestrated a ** terrorist attack on his mausoleum, after which Iranian missiles struck Israeli intelligence centers in northern Iraq in retaliation. Now, Iran is once again planning to strike Israeli targets from Kermanshah, apparently again with the support of the C4 system of some mysterious power. The reason why it is now only a simulated attack is that the military exercises with the participation of the major powers were held after March 19.
In this March 19 exercise, Iran may again strike Israeli targets, even in Israel itself.
On June 18, 2017, and January 16, 2024, Iranian missile strikes against ISIS and Israeli targets were supported by the space-ground command system of a mysterious power. In the trilateral joint military exercise on March 19, Iran will directly attack the arrogance of Jewish Israel with the support of the C4ISR system of a major country.
Interestingly, the exercise chosen by the three countries began on March 19, which coincided with the time of the second Fed interest rate meeting in 2024. The timing of this is a delicate choice.
Imagine that on the day of the Fed meeting, if Israel is attacked and oil prices rise again, this will disrupt the rhythm of the Fed meeting. At that time, the price of oil will be **, the dollar index, U.S. bonds, and U.S. stocks will dive, and the cold sniping of the three countries will hit the heart of dollar hegemony! Send the Federal Reserve a heart-to-heart, heart-warming!