The birth population data in 2023 is finally released, 9.02 million, unexpectedly, although it is slightly higher than the data of the previous Internet celebrities, but it is still 5 percentage points lower than the previous year, and compared with 2016, it has dropped by more than half (17.86 million newborns in 2016). From an international point of view, China's total fertility rate is only 10, which is only slightly higher than South Korea and much lower than the 1 in advanced economies5, which is even much lower than Japan, which has a severely low birthrate (Japan's total fertility rate is 1.).3）。It is worth noting that 6 ...The fertility rate of 39% is also the lowest level since the founding of the People's Republic of China. 
More importantly, the current downward trend in the fertility rate has not been reversed, judging from the comments on the Internet, the sentiment of young people who dare not have children and do not want to have children is still strong, and it is difficult to imagine how far the birth rate will fall in the future. In this regard, the "China Development Report 2023" released by the National Research Center pointed out that it is expected to show a downward trend for a long time in the future. **The number of births per year will decrease by approximately 100 million every 10 years. If that's the caseWithin a decade, births could be negative. And the reason why everyone is reluctant to give birth is mainly closely related to these "four mountains":
01 Housing prices are too high, people are difficult to breathe in recent years, although the real estate market has entered the adjustment cycle, but, according to the data released by the statistical department, China's new commercial housing ** is still maintained at about 10,000 square meters. If young people want to buy a house in the city, a 100-square-meter house needs at least 1 million yuan, which is a lot of pressure for young people whose income is not high! 
Although there is no direct relationship between whether to buy a house or not and whether young people have babies or not, in this era of rampant materialism, it is extremely unlikely that you want to make your future mother-in-law agree to marry her daughter without buying a house. Besides, there are now 200 million families in China who are under the pressure of 38 trillion mortgages, in this case, a large part of the monthly income has to be used to repay the mortgage, and dare to have a second child. Again,Having an extra child means buying an extra 40 square meters of space for the child's future residenceHousing prices are so expensive, who can afford it? 
02 Education is too "volume", and the cost of raising a baby is too highAlthough the cost of children in the compulsory education stage is relatively small, in order to give their children a good future, many families will find another way to report various cram schools and interest classes. Although the state has rectified extracurricular training in recent years, some private training still exists, and due to the high risk, the fees may be more than before. 
Moreover, although there is already a saying that there is no diversion in junior high school, many families still spend a lot of money to study private if they are not admitted to a public high school, and the private cost is so high, it is said that the cost of a private high school in Beijing and Shenzhen is 100,000 yuan a year, and some are more expensive. In this case, parents and children can only roll up before high school, in addition to the usual supplement, even winter and summer vacations have to open a small stove, before going to school to make up for a big supplement, the cost is higher than the other. 
Some institutions estimate that if an urban family wants to raise a child from 0 to 18 years old, it will cost at least four or five hundred thousand yuan, which is not counting the cost of college, plus this, only a lot more. It's not nice to say,Raising a child may require a half-suiteBut even then, there is no guarantee that the desired outcome will be achieved. After all, there are not a few undergraduates who can't find jobs and fall into couriers and takeaways. 
03 Medical care is too expensive, and it is not easy to raise a childNow that winter has begun, I believe everyone feels deeply at this point. Not to mention serious illness, every winter flu, a process ** down, a day or two hundreds of thousands of normal. Especially in recent years, mycoplasma pneumonia has appeared, as well as viral infections, etc., the time is longer, and the cost is more expensive than the general flu. 
Moreover, after raising children at home, parents generally do not dare to run to the hospital if they have any illness, because now the pressure of job competition is intensifying, and if they can't do it, their jobs will be gone. It's okay for adults to miss a few meals, but they don't dare to let their children go hungry, so everyone doesn't dare to get sick, dare not go to work, and dare not lose their jobs. 
04 The old have no security and cannot afford subsidiesToday, although living conditions are better, there is a very real problem ahead: we are not rich enough to spend the rest of our lives on an ordinary retirement salary. Otherwise, the state would not have been arranging delays in advancing the work all these years. Moreover, according to the trend of substitution of pension levels, not to mention delaying retirement at the age of 65 in the future, it is possible to retire at the age of 70 in the long run. 
It is already a fact that in the future, people who have reached retirement age will not be able to maintain their previous standard of living with a pitiful pension, and they will have to continue to work. Moreover, the pressure on the child's future life is also great, and the more children are born at that time, it means that the more children may be subsidized, who dares to have more children?
Write at the endIn recent years, in order to encourage childbirth, various localities have begun to give money policies, such as Wenzhou, Zhejiang, for families with one, two and three children are subsidized, and the maximum annual subsidy for two children is 120,000, with a maximum annual subsidy of 2 for three children40,000, more life and more supplement! In addition to cash subsidies, many regions also give housing subsidies to multi-child families in terms of house purchase, and some areas even reach 300,000 yuan for families with three children.
However, even this has not stopped the trend of record low fertility rates in recent years. To put it bluntly, as we said above, the "four mountains" have not been fundamentally solved or the intensity is not enough. To this end,Population expert Liang Jianzhang put forward a new proposal, which won the unanimous approval of netizens.
Liang Jianzhang wrote "Is the Serious Declining Birthrate a Family Affair or a State Affair?" The article mentions that ultra-low fertility rates will have many negative consequences for the country. The long-term low fertility rate will aggravate the aging of the population, and the number of labor force will continue to decrease relative to the number of elderly people who need to be supported, which will lead to an increase in the cost of pension and taxes for the whole society. It is foreseeable that China will become one of the countries with the highest aging population and pension burden in the next 20 years, and it will continue to deteriorate, which will seriously drag down the country's fiscal and economic vitality. Therefore, he pointed out that having children is a family affair and a national affair. And said,Only some places have introduced birth support policies, which is not enough, and it should be more appropriate to introduce them at the ** level.
To this end, he put forward a proposal for fertility policy benefits: 1 million awards for each family! Here's what he said about the 1 million: China may need to spend 4% of its GDP to provide fertility benefits to reach the average fertility rate in developed countries. If 4% of GDP (5 trillion) is allocated to each family every year, the two-child family can receive a total of more than 1 million maternity benefits from the birth of the child to adulthood.
Liang Jianzhang put forward a total of 10 specific policy suggestions to support childbirth, namely: 1Cash subsidy. Referring to France and Germany, one-child, two-child, and three-child families will be subsidized 1,000, 3,000, and 6,000 per month respectively for 20 years; 2.Individual income tax and social security exemptions. For two-child families, the individual income tax and social security will be halved, and the individual income tax and social security of three-child families will be exempted. 3.The house purchase subsidy consists of two parts, one is the mortgage interest, which is 50% for two-child families and full for three-child families. The other is a discount for buying a house, with one-child, two-child, and three-child families buying a house at 9%, 7, and 5% respectively;
4.Construction of additional nurseries. It is proposed to increase the enrollment rate of infants and toddlers under the age of 3 to about 50%. It is proposed to add more than 100,000 nurseries; 5.A policy on maternity leave with relative equality between men and women has been introduced. In order to alleviate the worries of working mothers giving birth to children, it is recommended that the local government bear the labor costs during maternity leave. In addition, he suggested promoting flexible working; Bringing in foreign nannies; support the development of assisted reproduction; protecting the rights and interests of single-parent families; The abolition of the high school entrance examination and the shortening of the school period and the introduction of 10 years of free and compulsory education have been implemented to increase the fertility rate.
As soon as this suggestion came out, it was immediately praised by netizens, and many netizens commented that if it can really be realized, the continuous downward trend of China's fertility rate will be reversed, young people are no longer afraid of birth, and one-child families are willing to have more children. In this regard, do you agree with the suggestion of population expert Liang Jianzhang? Agree to like! Wan Ziwen said: Every word of the article is typed out by me, and I am reading it by clicking on it, so that I know that you are also doing your best for life.