In the line test, the weakening and strengthening of probability reasoning has always been a popular test point, which has caused many students a headache. So how do you solve this problem? It is important to know that the weakened and strengthened questions can actually be divided into many models, and if we can master the methods of some models, it will be helpful to improve the overall score. Today, I will take you to learn about a common argument model called "enumeration induction" in weakening and strengthening questions.
One. The stem form of "enumeration induction".
Some of the things in a certain type of thing, A1, A2, A3, etc., have a certain property B, and the conclusion is that A all have that property B.
EG: According to a survey conducted by an organization, the average monthly income of residents in Beijing and Shanghai is around 10,000 yuan. Therefore, the agency speculates that the average monthly income of residents in all cities in the country is about 10,000 yuan.
In the example, "thing a" is the average monthly income of all urban residents in China, and "some things a1, a2, and a3" are the average monthly income of residents in Beijing and Shanghai.
Two. The weakening of "enumeration induction" strengthens the way.
Next, let's see if the following options can play a role in weakening and strengthening?
a.The survey is aimed at more economically developed cities, and it is normal to have such results.
b.The survey only looked at residents of Beijing and Shanghai, while the results of the survey of residents in other cities showed differences.
c.The average monthly income of residents in other cities in China is similar to that of Beijing and Shanghai.
The answer is: a and b can be weakened; c can be strengthened, why?
item a, indicating that the sample selected in the survey is special and unrepresentative, which weakens the conclusion of the question stem.
Item B, which indicates that there are different results for the respondents who are not surveyed, the results of the survey are inaccurate, which weakens the conclusion of the question stem.
Item C, indicating that the sample selected in the survey is not special and representative, and strengthens the conclusion of the question stem.
Through this example, we can see the common weakening and strengthening methods of "enumeration induction".
1.Weakening Method: Specimen special; There are counterexamples.
2.Reinforcement method: The sample is representative.
Let's use a question to test whether you really understand the model of "enumeration induction".
Example] A consumer-oriented magazine conducted a survey among readers to determine next year's consumption trends. Among the respondents, 57% have plans to spend on luxury items in the next year. From this, the magazine speculates that consumers' spending power will be strong next year.
Which of the following, if true, would most undermine the magazine's speculation?
a.The publication's readership is richer than the average consumer.
b.Not all readers of the publication responded to the survey.
c.Most people who don't have a spending plan for luxury items plan plan to save up for a house.
d.Most of the luxury goods planned to be purchased are imported and do not stimulate the domestic market.
Correct Answer: a.
Analysis] Stem conducted a survey among readers through a consumption-oriented magazine, and among the respondents, 57% of them have plans to consume luxury items next year. The magazine speculates that consumers' spending power will be strong next year.
Item A points out that the readers of the journal are richer than the general consumer, and the object of the survey in the question stem is the reader of the publication, which means that the object of the survey is a special group of wealthier people, and their consumption power is strong, which does not indicate that the overall consumer consumption power is strong, which effectively weakens the speculation and retention of the magazine.
b, noting that some readers of the publication did not respond to the survey. However, the question stem focuses on whether the readers who answered the survey will actually consume and whether their spending power can represent the consumption power of the overall consumer, and does not pay attention to whether the readers who answered the survey are the whole or part of the readership.
Item c, which states that most people who do not have a luxury project consumption plan plan to save money to buy a house. However, the question stem focuses on whether people with luxury items consumption plans will actually consume and whether their spending power can represent the overall consumer spending power, and does not pay attention to whether people without luxury items consumption plans consume or save money, which cannot weaken the magazine's speculation and exclude.
Item d, which indicates that people who plan to buy luxury goods will spend this amount abroad rather than domestically in the future. However, the question stem focuses on whether the people who plan to buy luxury goods will actually consume and whether their spending power can represent the consumption power of consumers as a whole.
Therefore, a is selected for this question.