In the practical test, the Possibility Reasoning-Reinforcement Weakening question has always been a major difficulty in judgment reasoning. When answering such questions, many candidates have an inaccurate grasp of the causal relationship and incomplete analysis of the question stem, resulting in slow speed and unstable accuracy. Therefore, it is very important to be proficient in the common argumentation models in probability reasoning.
First, the first acquaintance with the enumeration and induction.
Enumerative induction refers to the inductive reasoning that all objects of a certain class of things have that property based on the fact that some objects of a certain class of things have a certain property and do not encounter the opposite. It can be simply summarized as: from the part has a certain law, the whole has that law. For example, Americans today are 32 percent less active than they were in 1965 and are expected to be 46 percent less by 2030. In China, people are 45% less physically active than in 1991 and are expected to decrease by 51% by 2030. Experts therefore believe that the lack of exercise has become a global problem. This is a typical enumeration induction. Some parts (the U.S. and China) have a certain attribute, and then the whole (the world) has that attribute.
Now that we understand the enumeration model, how can we weaken or strengthen the topic of the enumeration model? Without further ado, let's jump to the conclusion. There are three directions for enumerating the weakening terms specific to induction:1The sample is not representative; 2.The sample size is insufficient; 3.Unlisted samples do not have this attribute. Correspondingly, there are three directions for the unique reinforcements:1The sample is representative; 2.The sample size is sufficient; 3.Unlisted samples also have this property. Okay, after writing down the above conclusions, we can continue to think about the specific examples, and how to strengthen them if we weaken them in specific situations.
Second, the example questions are elaborated.
Example 1] Xiao Wang, a teacher at a training institution in City A, said: "Our students have strong learning ability. The students in our class have learned from zero to now, and the average accuracy rate of doing papers can be more than 80%, which is enough to prove! ”
Question 1: Which of the following is true that best refutes the above conclusion?
a.The top students in this class are basically concentrated in Mr. Wang's class, and the top students have the strongest learning ability.
b.This class of students is evenly divided into classes according to their learning ability before entering the school.
Analysis] a. The causal relationship of the question stem is as follows: from the high accuracy rate of the students in Xiao Wang's class (the situation of some students), the conclusion that the learning ability of this class of students is good (the situation of the overall students). Item A shows that Mr. Wang's class occupies the outstanding students with the strongest learning ability among the students in this class, and it does not represent the whole class of students, so the conclusion of the question can be refuted. Item B shows that the situation of the students in Mr. Wang's class can represent the situation of the whole class of students, strengthens the conclusion of the question stem, and excludes B. So the answer is A. Did you find out? Both options are weakened and strengthened based on whether the sample is representative or not. This is the most common weakening angle in the enumeration inductive model. Okay, let's move on to the second question.
Question 2: Which of the following, if true, best reinforces the above conclusion?
a.Many of the students in the next class have finished their studies and still have not improved.
b.In other classes, students have an average of 95% accuracy in making papers
Analysis] b. Item A shows that the learning ability of this class of students is not very strong by giving a counter-example, indicating that the sample that is not listed does not have this attribute, refuting the conclusion of the question stem, and excluding A. Item B reinforces the stem conclusion with an example to illustrate that the unlisted sample also has this attribute. So choose B. Both options in question 2 are whether the unlisted sample has the property to be weakened and strengthened. This is the second more common weakening angle in the enumerative induction model. Okay, let's increase the difficulty and continue to look at the full question to experience.
Example 2] Kobayashi said: "After joining the work, I got to know a lot of people, and these people have university diplomas, so the popularity of higher education in my country is very high. ”
The following best refutes Kobayashi's reasoning:
a.Many of the people Kobayashi knew were alumni of his university.
b.Kobayashi is responsible for logistics and technical support, and has little contact with the outside world.
c.Kobayashi's city has a different rate of higher education than other cities.
d.The turnover rate of talents from all walks of life is relatively high between cities, and it is difficult to calculate the penetration rate of higher education in each city.
Analysis] a. The causal relationship of the question stem is: Many people who have met after Kobayashi joined the work have university diplomas, so it is launched: The popularity of higher education in China is very high. Item A points out that many of the people Kobayashi knows are alumni of his university, indicating that the "sample" that Kobayashi drew conclusions from was not randomly selected, and the conclusions drawn based on such a "sample" were not the most realistic, that is, as we said earlier, the sample is not representative, and the stem reasoning can be refuted. Item B points out that Kobayashi has little contact with the outside world, but this does not explain the situation of the people he knows, does not reflect the popularization of higher education in China, and cannot refute the reasoning of the question. Item C points out that the higher education penetration rate in Xiaolin's city is different from that in other cities, but the people Kobayashi knows may not all be in his own city, and the higher education penetration rate may be higher than that in other cities or lower than in other cities, so it cannot refute the reasoning. Item D points out that the higher education penetration rate of each city is inconvenient to count, has nothing to do with the stem discussion, and cannot refute the reasoning of the question stem. Therefore, choose a for this question.
Through the above learning, Zhonggong Education believes that everyone has a certain understanding and mastery of the model of enumeration and induction. The core of enumeration and induction is the process of pushing the whole from the part. The options that can be weakened or strengthened tend to revolve around the sample, whether the sample is representative, whether other samples also have this attribute, and whether the sample size is sufficient. Grasp these three points, combined with the specific situation of the question, you can quickly choose the correct answer, let's go find the question to practice.