Reference News Network, February 6**, Japan's "Yomiuri Shimbun" published an article entitled "The United States ** Will Influence the Future of the International Order" on February 4, the author is American political scientist Francis Fukuyama. The full text is excerpted below:
Our world is at a crossroads, and this year will be a pivotal year that will determine the course of future history. A number of key elections are on the horizon, but the most important of them all is the United States** in November.
It is likely that American voters will have to choose between the current Biden and the former Trump. Polls at this stage show that Trump has the upper hand.
U.S. voters typically vote based on a candidate's policies on taxes, health care, crime, immigration, and more. Admittedly, Trump's position on these issues is different from Biden's. However, the significance of this event is far more than a simple policy dispute, but is related to the fate of American liberal democracy itself and determines the direction of the international order.
It has become increasingly clear that if Trump is re-elected, his policies are likely to be more extreme and destructive than in his first term. I myself am deeply concerned about whether Trump will lead the United States down the path of **ism.
Trump has vowed to suspend the constitution once he returns to power, and has pursued and beaten down political opponents, including "Biden family criminals". Mr. Trump has called immigrants "a pest that has polluted American blood," and the conservative consortium that supports Mr. Trump is even hatching a plan to replace all 50,000 civil servants with Trump loyalists.
The biggest fallout from Trump's re-election is likely to be in the diplomatic realm. He has clearly expressed his intention to withdraw from NATO.
A significant number of Republican members of the House of Representatives have already refused to provide additional military aid to Ukraine. In general, the Republican Party, which has been reformed by Trump, is showing a tendency to turn away from democracy and toward isolationism.
Trump's claim that he has the ability to end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of days means that he will sacrifice allies to evade his foreign defense obligations, and Japan and South Korea should be able to understand the implications of his words.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas is equally a serious issue. The dispute is likely to spread throughout the Middle East, with Allah in Lebanon and Iran behind it likely to end up directly. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea and have been retaliated against by U.S. forces.
The chaos in the Middle East has also further exposed the rift in the United States. Palestine enjoys tremendous support from the left, especially young people, across the globe. Biden's strong support for Israel at the start of the conflict has sparked resentment among African-American and other non-white voters in states such as Michigan, where the election is hot.
In this way, the foreign and domestic affairs of the United States are completely entangled. "The enemy is inside. This is what Trump said, which means that liberals and Democrats are more dangerous to the United States than enemies abroad. This extreme diode thinking is weakening the will of the United States.
The prestige and power of the United States remain strong. If Trump wins, it will have a huge impact on international politics; On the other hand, if Biden and the Democrats win a big victory, the United States may be expected to usher in a breakthrough to break the deadly political polarization.
But I'm afraid there will be a worse third outcome, and that is Biden's narrow victory. At that point, Trump and his supporters will inevitably question the legitimacy of the election. These emotionally uncontrollable people may intimidate judges, prosecutors and politicians who they believe are in Trump's way.
In other words, the United States** at the end of November was not an ordinary election, and its importance was even comparable to that of the election in 1860 in which Lincoln was elected and eventually led to the Civil War. The United States was still a marginal player in international politics when it was founded, but today it is at the heart of the world's largest military alliance and economic nexus. (Compiled by Liu Lin).