You ready? There will be three important changes in China, which may come into effect after March
In the past year, many people and many businesses have been in trouble due to the continuous interest rate of the yuan, coupled with the decline in people's incomes and the increase in unemployment in the past three years. Let's compare again: in 2022, in the troika, the contribution of consumption to GDP is 328%, the investment is 501%, exports are 171%。By 2023, the role of consumption in driving GDP will become 825%, investment pull 289%, export pull -114%。Obviously, there has been a dramatic change in this ratio.
In the past year, although the consumption figure far surpassed exports and investment, becoming the most important of the three "three", however, among the three cars, investment and exports are both ****, especially exports, are even more negative. With so many people, this is good news, indicating that the domestic circulation has been opened up, and there is no need to rely on external circulation or be bound by foreign markets. However, there is one thing that is particularly worrying, that is, from the perspective of changes in household spending, the decline in consumption is becoming more and more serious, which also means that the rapid development driven by consumption is difficult to sustain.
It was at this time that the company's leaders held a general meeting to plan for the company's future. Industry experts**, if there are no surprises, after this month, there will be three major changes in the country, please be mentally prepared.
01 External conditions will improve. In the past two years, the United States has been trying to curb inflation, stimulate domestic real estate bubbles, curb economic growth, and has been constantly raising interest rates. Obviously, the reason why interest rates were not raised at the end of last year was because the United States could not afford high interest rates, and it was inevitable that they would eventually enter a cycle of interest rate cuts.
1.The U.S. interest rate cut is more favorable for our monetary policy. Banks may be able to be more flexible in their own monetary policy, for example by cutting interest rates or adopting a more accommodative monetary policy to boost the economy. For example, the People's Bank of China recently released a one-year LPR of 345%, basically the same as the previous month; The interest rate for a 5-year loan is 395 percent, down 25 percentage points from the previous month. This means less pressure on homebuyers who own their homes.
2.Improving the competitiveness of China's exports and reducing the cost of borrowing in the world, since Chinese goods will be more attractive in the world market, the U.S. cut interest rates will help improve the competitiveness of China's exports.
At the same time, the yuan will also help China's imports decline, especially yuan-based products such as steel and steel, so that manufacturers will be lower. For example, in the past, one yuan was equivalent to 7 yuan, and if you wanted to buy something for 10,000 yuan, it was 70,000 yuan, but now, 1 is equivalent to 6 yuan, and you can buy it for only 60,000 yuan, so if the cost of raw materials is reduced, the cost of the company will be reduced.
3.The company's financial expenses decreased. In fact, lowering interest rates in the United States will also reduce the cost of borrowing in countries around the world. For example, China's current debt is seven to seven, that is, they need to repay 700 million yuan, and after the United States lowers interest rates, they have to repay 600 million yuan, which is undoubtedly a huge benefit for companies with high debts.
In addition, the reduction of interest rates in the United States may also have a certain impact on the world's economic situation and situation, and then have a certain impact on China's foreign trade. All in all, a stable international market is a good thing for Chinese companies and individuals.
02 The income of the people will rise. The wage level of workers will decline with the development of the economy, which will inevitably have a certain negative impact on the quality of life of the people. To this end, in order to solve this problem, increase income, and promote consumption, Yuan Da, deputy secretary general of the state and director of the comprehensive department of national economy, said that at present and for a period in the future, we must persist in vigorously promoting domestic demand, give full play to the potential of consumption, and increase effective investment, so as to consolidate and strengthen the good momentum of China's economic recovery. This year's work will revolve around two directions.
On the one hand, it is necessary to fully mobilize the consumption potential of residents, raise their income expectations, enhance their consumption capacity, and enhance their willingness to consume. There are three main points:1. promote the diversification of farmers' incomes; Yuan Da said that it is necessary to focus on employment-centered work, to ensure the stability of jobs for key groups, to take the initiative to increase their income, to make their middle class more, to make their families richer, and to make their families richer.
2.Strengthen the product and service offerings. Encourage the development of digital consumption, green consumption, and healthy consumption, cultivate new consumption growth points, such as smart homes, cultural and entertainment tourism, and promote bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles, electronic products, etc., and promote the trade-in of old for new ones guided by improving technology, energy consumption, emission and other standards. 3.Improve the quality of goods and services. Optimize the soft environment for consumption, so that the people can consume with confidence and consume with confidence.
Second, it is necessary to increase the intensity of effective investment, broaden the scope of effective investment, and continuously improve the investment environment, so that the overall investment efficiency can be truly improved. First, we must make full use of the pulling and expanding role of the best input; the second is to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of private capital; Third, efforts should be made to reduce investment and investment costs; Fourth, we will continue to strengthen the service and factor support for foreign-funded projects.
Yuan Da mentioned that it is necessary to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment, improve the investment and financing system, implement a new system of "government-enterprise linkage", classify investment projects suitable for private enterprises in detail, and use the online investment management system to carry out project recommendations, and support social capital to participate in the construction of new infrastructure and other fields. In the fields of market access, access to factors, fair law enforcement, and protection of rights and interests, it is necessary to solve various problems encountered by private enterprises in the process of development. All in all, as Yuan Da, deputy secretary-general and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Department, said, "consumption is the fundamental need; Investment is a combination of current demand and future supply, which can be transmitted through the procurement of goods or services, and can also play a positive role in promoting the increase of income and the expansion of consumption, so as to achieve a virtuous circle of demand driven by supply and supply driven.
03 The new round of real estate policy will be relaxed, which can be analyzed from the following perspectives: 1. Changes in the external environment have enhanced people's confidence in real estate, and it is obvious that good external conditions will promote our economic development and increase people's income, which means that more people will have more capital to buy houses to solve the housing problems in towns.
2.The new birth rate is higher than expected. Just a year ago, everyone thought that by 2022, seven million babies would be born, and even professionals had this **. But when this number was released, no one expected that in the second year, there would be a staggering number, which was nine thousand and twenty thousand, exceeding the projected two million.
In addition, the decline in newborns is not as large as expected, with 1.06 million fewer children born in 2022 than in 2021. In 2023, there are 540,000 compared to 2022. This means that the population growth rate is now declining, and if the decline stops, it will have a much less negative impact on the real estate market.
2.A number of highly targeted regulatory measures will gradually have an impact on the real estate market. After the central bank proposed to treat the financing needs of all types of enterprises equally, eight departments, including eight countries, have made their own contributions in their respective positions, and have introduced corresponding policies and implemented peer-to-peer assistance. There are rumors that the real estate developer is in a dilemma with the capital chain, and ** is trying to deal with this matter, and it is expected that after March, the real estate developer's capital chain will be improved.
In addition, the "man-land linkage" system proposed by the housing sector will also be implemented in 2024, which will play a very important role in alleviating the contradiction between real estate supply and demand and promoting the stable and stable development of the real estate industry. To put it simply, it is to be guided by local needs in order to reduce the stock of the real estate market. These highly targeted measures will gradually affect the real estate market.
All in all, after 2824 AD, we can see that ** is increasing its support for economic development and people's consumption. This is a great opportunity for both our company and our employees.
Therefore, our advice is: seize this opportunity, seize this opportunity, and make yourself stronger. Wan Ziwen: "Every sentence I write is well thought out, please click and tell me that you are also working hard for your own life." ”