Around the Spring Festival is the traditional ** sales season. The ** sales counters of major shopping malls ushered in a wave of customers. Buying gold jewelry for family members, buying gold bars for investment, and young people saving "gold beans", * consumption is booming.
According to the China Association, in 2023, the national consumption will be 108969 tons, a year-on-year increase of 878%。According to the Global Demand Trends Report released by the World Association a few days ago, China's domestic gold jewellery consumption will reach a record high of 282 billion yuan in 2023, and consumer demand will remain strong in 2024.
* Consumer investment demand is heating up.
At the beginning of 2024, a "China's first first New Year special exhibition" was held in Shuibei, Shenzhen, the largest jewelry trading and distribution center in China, with more than 1,000 franchisee representatives, 8 enterprises in the direct sales system of CICC jewelry, and all 31 Chinese first-class merchants participating in the exhibition. For the first time, China's first-class exclusive product booth achieved sales of nearly 2 tons of new products, reflecting the "good start" of China's first-class consumption in the New Year.
During the Spring Festival holiday, in the Caishikou department store in Beijing, there was an endless stream of consumers who bought **, and customers at the cashier lined up in a long line. "My friend's child has just been a full moon, this time I am going to buy a small gold lock for her baby, by the way, I also look at the ** products such as small gold bars, if there is ** suitable, I will buy a little for my child to save. A young lady who was checking gold jewellery at the counter told reporters.
According to the sales staff, the Spring Festival holiday has always been the peak sales season. Recently, the Year of the Dragon zodiac gold jewelry is popular, and the rising gold price trend cannot stop consumers' enthusiasm for buying, "Gold prices are at a high point, although investment may not be the best time, but as a saving, hedging tool is also good."
The data released by the China ** Association proves the hot consumption: in 2023, the national ** consumption will be 108969 tons, a year-on-year increase of 878%。Among them, ** jewelry consumption is 70648 tons, a year-on-year increase of 797%；Spending on gold bars and coins is 2996 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1570%。
From the supply side, the domestic raw material output in 2023 will be 375155 tons, a year-on-year increase of 084% of which, ** Mineral Gold completed 297258 tons, non-ferrous by-product gold completed 77897 tons. China's imported raw materials produce 144134 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1459%。
From the perspective of the trend, the international high level will fluctuate in 2023. According to data from the China ** Association, the price of AU9999** on the Shanghai ** Exchange at the end of December 2023 was 479 per gram59 yuan, compared with the opening price at the beginning of 2023**1669% and a weighted average of 449 per gram for the whole year05 yuan, compared with the previous year**1497%。
From the perspective of the performance of related enterprises, the unaudited main operating data for the three months ended December 31, 2023 released by Chow Tai Fook showed that the company's overall retail value increased by 46% year-on-year during the period1%。Zhou Taisheng announced that as of December 31, 2023, the total number of the company's stores was 5,106, including 331 self-operated stores and 4,775 franchised stores; In 2023, it will open a net of 490 stores, exceeding the target of a net increase of 400 stores for the whole year.
From the perspective of the entire category of consumer market, behind the "gold buying fever" is the overall rise in gold, silver and jewelry consumption. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry in China will reach 331 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 133%, the growth rate ranks first in the commodity retail sub-category.
In addition, there is a high level of enthusiasm among investors to participate in investing by buying ETFs (exchange-traded indices). In 2023, the scale of domestic ** ETF holdings will grow steadily. As of the end of 2023, the holdings of domestic ** ETFs are about 6147 tons, an increase of 19 compared to the same period last year53%。In terms of net performance, all 14** ETFs achieved positive returns, with annual performance returns of 15%-17%.
Zhang Yongtao, vice president and secretary general of the China ** Association, analyzed that the domestic consumer market will recover well in 2023, and ** jewelry processing and retail enterprises will continue to innovate in the design of gold jewelry products, promoting the increase in China's ** jewelry consumer demand. At the same time, gold bars and coins with relatively low premiums are also favored by consumers who have physical investment needs.
"Hit gold jewelry" and "buy gold beans" are popular.
In the face of rising gold prices, "buying gold bars and playing gold jewellery" has become a new choice for many young consumers. Li Tao, a post-90s Beijing citizen with relevant experience, told reporters that the "three golds" when he got married in early 2023 were bought by the bank and hit by the gold store, "Generally speaking, consumers can buy high-purity gold bars from banks, e-commerce platforms and even Shenzhen Shuibei Market, and then entrust the gold store to process them into jewelry according to the style they designed." The labor fee is charged by the gram, and the master can make gold throughout the whole process, which is quite participatory."
Is it more cost-effective to buy gold bars first and then go to a gold shop to process them into jewellery than to buy gold jewellery outright? After trying it, many consumers said that the answer is yes. "Banks buy gold and gold stores only need to pay a small amount of additional labor fees, and you don't have to pay for the premium and expensive labor costs of big brands, which saves money than buying gold jewelry directly. In the end, I can save more than 30 yuan per gram. Li Tao said.
Will it be more troublesome to buy gold bars and hit gold jewelry? Does it mean higher risk?
Before playing, they were all claimed to be zero loss, and once they passed the scale, how to calculate the small amount", "Although the labor cost of the small gold store is low, the risk is also high", "The process of designing styles, issuing bills, and on-site supervision is too troublesome......".In the interview, there are also consumers who are cautious. Li Tao said frankly that because he has relatives who are engaged in the ** jewelry industry and are more familiar with the gold shops entrusted with processing, he dares to rest assured that he will hand it over to the processing party. "Still, I didn't dare to make a mistake the whole time. Li Tao said.
In addition to "buying gold bars and playing gold jewelry", many young people also choose to buy "golden beans" and "golden melon seeds" weighing only a few grams for consumption and savings.
The price of gold is rising, young people want to invest, and big gold bars can't afford it, so it's just right to save gold beans. Zhou Jing, who has been buying gold beans intermittently for more than a year, said that gold beans have the advantages of low purchase threshold and low average premium, and can also cultivate personal savings habits, "spend a few hundred yuan a month, buy a little from time to time, and have saved a small can, which will be convenient for repurchase and cash in the future and exchange for jewelry."
Zhang Yunxuan, who works in a well-known financial institution in Beijing, told reporters that investing in products such as golden beans and golden melon seeds is similar to regular investment and financial management and compulsory savings. "* is at a high level, and itself can not earn interest, there are hidden costs such as labor costs, handling fees, and losses behind the golden beans, and it is difficult to achieve profitability by 'buying low and selling high', and it is even possible to lose money in the short term, which is more suitable as a means of long-term investment or value preservation. Zhang Yunxuan said.
Industry insiders said that investing in golden beans and golden melon seeds should also pay attention to risks. On the one hand, the sales platform is uneven, and the related products may not be standardized enough in terms of quality and condition, so we should do a good job of screening and confirming the merchants and products. On the other hand, we should pay attention to the timing of purchase and realization, and fully consider the possible costs of testing, repurchase and other links, so as to avoid "bamboo basket water" and the gains outweigh the losses.
There are many supporting factors for gold prices in the future.
In 2023, the international spot market will exceed 13%, the largest annual increase since 2020. How do you see the subsequent performance of the market?
It is understood that the fluctuation of international gold prices is highly correlated with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical risks and other factors. Strong expectations for the US dollar could lead to gold prices**; In the event of a hot spot crisis event or a weakening of the US dollar, gold prices may be**. In addition, the continued purchase of gold by global central banks is also one of the favorable factors supporting the performance of gold prices.
Many institutions believe that in 2024, multiple factors will support the high operation of international gold prices: the market expects that the central banks of major Western economies will enter a cycle of interest rate cuts in 2024, coupled with the election of many major economies around the world, geopolitical tensions in hot spots and other factors, ** as a traditional hedging tool is expected to continue to be sought after by global investors. UBS expects gold to reach $2,150 an ounce by the end of the year. Wells Fargo expects gold to end the year close to $2,200 an ounce.
It is understood that in the face of uncertainties, global central banks have increased their holdings**. In the first three quarters of 2023 alone, global central banks bought a record 800 tonnes**, up 14% year-on-year, according to data released by the World Association. The association's recent survey also showed that more than 70% of central banks surveyed expect global reserves to continue to grow over the next 12 months. Among them, the People's Bank of China will increase its holdings by **224 in 202388 tons, pushing China's ** reserves to reach 2,235 by the end of 202341 tons. As of December 2023, the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 14 consecutive months**.
* Higher will also affect residents' **consumption and investment decisions. According to the analysis of the "Global Demand Trend Report" released by the World Association, in 2024, the RMB gold price is more likely to remain at a historical high, and if the domestic gold price is further **, investors may choose to wait and see, waiting for a better opportunity to enter the market.
In this case, it is risky to blindly "chase up". Experts said that the current international gold price is at a high level, affecting its future trend of uncertain factors, moderate allocation of ** assets can reduce the volatility of the family's overall portfolio, improve risk-adjusted returns, but investors need to consider personal risk tolerance and purchase convenience rational investment.
It is easier for young people to buy gold "on the top". In this regard, industry insiders remind that young consumers need to pay attention to distinguishing between investment and jewelry gold when making ** investment. Among them, gold coins, gold bars and other investment funds do not have too many process attributes, ** is closer to the real-time gold price, and the additional fees are lower; In addition to the function of investment collection, jewelry gold is generally mainly used for wearing decoration, with high craftsmanship value and higher additional costs.
How to effectively avoid ** investment risks? Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian Financial, believes that residents should have basic investment and financial knowledge, especially to understand investment. At the same time, we should do a good job in asset allocation based on personal risk appetite, investment ability, investment experience and other factors. "Investors should buy products that they understand, and young people should avoid falling into the 'herd effect' and follow the trend to buy. Choose a way that suits you when investing and managing your finances. Dong Ximiao said.
*: People's ** Overseas Edition.