Carbon dioxide (CO) emissions from passenger cars in Australia have increased by 50%?) is higher than the average of the world's major markets. The real-world situation is even worse than the official data suggests.
Is this the finding of a new study comparing co? Emissions performance of automobiles, SUVs and light commercial vehicles in Australia and overseas.
This comparison suggests that Australia may fall far short of its 2050 economy-wide goal of net-zero road transport emissions. In order to achieve this goal, policies to reduce vehicle emissions must be strengthened and supported by a range of other policies.
This month, Australia** announced a new Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) option not to be confused with the National Electric Vehicle Strategy (NEVS). Will each option set a national limit on the number of CO grams? The amount of carbon that can be emitted per kilometer driven, calculated on average across all new cars sold.
Mandatory co?Emission or fuel efficiency standards are internationally recognized as essential components for reducing transportation emissions.
To provide further context and input to the development of Australian standards, Australia-based Transport Energy Emissions Institute (TER) and the International Council on Clean Transport (ICCT) have collaborated to produce a newly released brief.
Independent analysis shows that there is an urgent need for Australia to adopt strict, well-designed and mandatory fuel efficiency standards. This standard and additional policies are essential to keep up with technological progress and decarbonization in other developed countries.
How did we fall so far behind?
The goals of fuel efficiency and emission standards are largely the same: to reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. By doing so, they also reduce fuel costs for consumers and improve energy security.
Over time, about 85% of the global light vehicle market has adopted these standards, in some cases decades ago. The United States, the European Union, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, China, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, New Zealand, Chile and India all have them. Australia and Russia are two exceptions for developed countries.
Australia has long debated whether such standards should be mandatory for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. Since 2008, the federal ** has issued six public consultation papers, but they have not met the mandatory standards. That's about to change.
Voluntary standards have been in place in Australia since 1978. These goals are not always achievable due to a lack of implementation. They have been criticized for their lack of ambition and effectiveness in reducing real-world emissions.
It seems that the current proposal will be even more ambitious. Its goal is likely to converge with that of the United States in 2027 – albeit not by Europe. Once the design and details become clearer, the effectiveness of the Australian standard in achieving true emissions reductions and net zero emissions by 2050 will still need to be reviewed.
How does Australia use official data for comparison?
The new study compares the official reported CO?Emissions performance of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Australia, China, the EU, Japan and the US? In 2021, Australian passenger vehicle emissions were 53% higher than the average for these key markets.
The official report of the average emissions performance of the new passenger car fleet, comparing Australia to four key markets. (TER and ICCT, 2024).
Importantly, this performance gap is expected to widen in the coming years without effective action. This is because these other markets are actively adopting standards to drive the transition to low- or zero-emission fleets.
How does Australia compare to reality?
Official Australian figures are based on a test protocol called the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). It was developed in the early 70s of the 20th century.
The main problem is that the discrepancy between the NEDC test results and the actual road emissions is steadily increasing. In 2007, actual road emissions were estimated to be about 10% higher, rising to more than 45% in 2021.
In fact, the EU no longer uses the outdated NEDC protocol. It uses a more realistic test procedure, the Globally Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP).
The brief uses previous research into Australian and international real-world emissions performance to make more accurate comparisons. Although official figures suggest that emissions from newly sold passenger cars in Australia are relatively high, at least they seem to be improving every year. When we look at road emissions, it's a very different story.
Compare Australia to four key markets to estimate the true fleet average emissions of new passenger vehicles. (TER and ICCT, 2024).
Our estimates suggest that emissions from newly sold passenger cars in Australia have actually been rising since 2015. This trend is due to the increase in vehicle size and weight, the shift to more four-wheel-drive SUVs and large UTEs, and the lack of mandatory standards or targets.
Australia's real-world emissions performance is also far worse than that of the big four markets. Prior to 2016, the average difference was about 20% higher on average. In 2021, emissions from passenger cars in Australia were almost 50% higher.
What does this mean for policy?
Our analysis shows that the official report and the actual road co? Australia's new light vehicle emissions are much higher than those of other developed countries. The available evidence suggests that this poor performance can get worse without strict mandatory standards.
The good news is that action is being taken on the lack of effective standards. Mandatory standards may be adopted this year. The New Car Efficiency Standard will come into force in 2025.
However, the standard must be carefully designed to achieve real emissions reductions in new vehicles.
For example, Australia's official Test Protocol (NEDC) is outdated and increasingly underestimating road emissions. It provides an unrealistic and distorted picture that undermines effective emissions reductions. ** indicates that it intends to adopt a more realistic test scheme.
These standards should also include on-board fuel consumption monitoring – as is currently done in the EU. It's critical to measure real-world fuel efficiency and new vehicle emissions, and to make that information publicly available to ensure standards meet their goals. But the latest ** report does not mention this.
Australia is long overdue for mandatory fuel efficiency standards. It can help close the performance gap between Australia and the rest of the world. So we'd better make sure it works. Dialogue.
Robin Smit is an Adjunct Professor in the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology Sydney.