Hua'an**: Before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of aluminum processing enterprises to stock up is low.
Morning strategy] copper
Market analysis]: On the 25th, the spot price in Shanghai was discounted by 50 yuan tons. According to SMM research, except for recycled copper rod enterprises due to fewer orders in hand, the holiday time is 4-6 days earlier than last year, and the rest of the copper processing materials enterprises have the same holiday time as last year. From the perspective of stocking, the inventory level of raw materials and finished products of processing materials enterprises decreased compared with last year, mainly due to the weak current orders of enterprises and poor expectations for the market outlook. In addition to enameled wire and copper strip, some enterprises are expected to have some growth in the new energy market, and most of the remaining processing material companies have pessimistic expectations. The copper concentrate processing fee was at US$32 tonnes this week, extending the downward trend since September '23, significantly disrupting the shutdown of the Cobre Panama copper mine and the downward revision of production expectations by Anglo American, as well as the outbreak of the "civil armed conflict" in Ecuador that could further affect the copper concentrate **.
Investment Strategy]: Expected to weaken slightly
Morning strategy] aluminum
Market Analysis]: Maintain the weak judgment of domestic Shanghai aluminum fundamentals before the holiday, and the enthusiasm of aluminum processing enterprises to stock up before the Spring Festival is low, and the start of construction will continue to decline. Bauxite: Imports remain tightly balanced, but the overall shipment is still executed as a long order, and there is no obvious shortage expectation. Bauxite inventories in Shandong and Guangzhou ports began to decline. Domestic: Henan due to Sanmenxia has not resumed production, Shanxi due to mine safety inspection problems, domestic mines are still tight, local alumina plants can not normally obtain sufficient raw materials, may bring further production reduction, alumina end has a certain support, it is expected that the status quo will not change significantly before the Spring Festival, superimposed in the early stage of Henan and Shanxi heavy snow, the difficulty of resumption of production increases. Monetary policy: This week, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and targeted interest rate cuts, once again boosting domestic macro sentiment. Trading level: Shanghai aluminum holdings are at a relatively low level, 03 contracts have not significantly reduced positions, and it is expected that the market momentum at the trading level will decrease. Core view: Shanghai aluminum** this week*** overall position is at a low level, 03 contract has not seen significant reduction. Before the holiday, the fundamental judgment of Shanghai aluminum is still weak, and the macro sentiment is warming up and the EU sanctions against Rusal cannot give the market sustained momentum, maintaining the weak judgment of the market next week.
Investment Strategy]: Maintain the judgment that the market will be weak next week.
Morning strategy] lithium carbonate
Market analysis] :* the main lithium carbonate contract fell 0 on Friday94% to 100.65 million tons. In terms of spot**, according to Mysteel, the market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained stable at 960,000 tons, the market price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained stable at 880,000 tons, the market price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide remained stable at 930,000 tons, basis - 500 yuan tons. Supply and demand: China's spodumene mine prices fell during the day. The salt lake seasonally reduced production slightly, some salt plants stopped production before the holiday, and large factories basically maintained stable production. According to Baichuan, the operating rate of lithium carbonate was 42 last week71%, an increase of 22%；The total output was 8,804 tons, an increase of 2 from the previous month22%；The total inventory of the industry is 29,280 tons. There is no obvious change in the spot, the transaction is light, and the inquiry offer is scarce. On the news side, Nandu Power announced that the company won the bid for the centralized bidding project of lithium iron phosphate battery products for power backup in China Tower from 2023 to 2024, with a winning bid amount of about 40.3 billion yuan, accounting for 343%。Tianneng shares announced that the company intends to 2100 million yuan equivalent to US dollars, the acquisition of SAFT Groupe SAS's holding subsidiary Tianneng Shuaifude Energy Co., Ltd. 40% of the shares. After the acquisition, the company holds a total of 100% of the shares of Tianneng Shuaifude. Bian Guangqi, deputy director of the Department of Energy Conservation and Science and Technology Equipment of the National Energy Administration, said at a press conference that new energy storage technologies are emerging, and the technical route is "blooming", and lithium-ion battery energy storage is still absolutely dominant.
Investment Strategy]: On the disk, the contracts ran last Friday. The third quarter report of Australian Mining is pessimistic, but on the whole, it has not made significant adjustments in production capacity. The focus of the market is back to the game between overcapacity and peak consumption season expectations. In the near future, the disk is running in a wide range, paying attention to the downstream replenishment situation and the production plan of Australian mines.
Disclaimer: The information in this report is publicly available, and Huaan** Investment Advisory Department strives to be accurate and reliable, but does not make any guarantee for the accuracy and completeness of this information. This report does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients. Customers should consider whether any observations or recommendations in this report are appropriate to their particular circumstances.