Huaan**: Stainless steel spot slowed down last week.
Morning strategy] stainless steel nickel
Market analysis]: Last week, the stainless steel spot slowed down, about 100 yuan, 140,000 yuan, and the basis was slightly discounted by 300 yuan. In terms of inventory, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the slight increase in spot ** has not stimulated the increase in order transactions. In terms of domestic trade in the port, the volume of unloading has been greatly reduced, and there are not many goods arriving in the market. The current term structure is characterized by cantango, i.e., near low and far high. Shanghai nickel last week's mainstream refined nickel spot **slightly**, domestic and overseas brands** about 1,000 yuan. Shanghai nickel *** came to the 130,000 ** range of weak operation, the current basis slightly discounted around 1,000 yuan.
Investment strategy]: Stainless steel and Shanghai nickel are running strongly
Morning strategy] coking coal coke
Market Analysis]: Last week, coking coal closed down 044% to 1796 yuan tons, coke closed down 012% to 2476 yuan ton. **In terms of early partial maintenance and the coal mines affected by the accident have resumed production, output and capacity utilization rate have increased month-on-month, but recent coal mine accidents have appeared again, the pre-holiday supply is weak, and the resumption of coal mine production after the holiday is expected to be bearish, and the Ceke Port Mark Mine is expected to stop production in February, ** reduced by about one million tons. On the demand side, the macro is good for growth, but the sustainability remains to be seen. On the industrial side, the terminal transaction before the holiday is weak, and the profitability of steel mills is poor, and there is no expectation of large-scale resumption of production at present, and the output of hot metal is not expected to increase much; In addition, the willingness of coke enterprises to increase production at a loss is not strong, the willingness to accept first-class coal is limited, the overall procurement is relatively cautious, and the supply and demand of the bifocal market remain in a tight balance. In terms of inventory, the inventory position of each link of the industrial chain is relatively neutral, the current coke steel game is intensifying, the cost of raw materials fluctuates greatly, the downstream procurement is cautious, and coke steel enterprises maintain on-demand replenishment, mostly to consume the inventory in the early stage. On the whole, the pre-holiday industrial drive is weak, the support is insufficient, the disk is expected to be at a high level in the short term, and weak in the medium term.
Investment strategy]: Before the holiday, see more and move less, high level**
Morning Strategy] ferrous metals
Market Analysis]: Overall, the current trend of steel prices is still limited, but the support below has been strengthened. This strengthening is reflected in the good inventory of the industrial end, the main steel varieties are limited in the accumulation of low output, and there is a certain demand for replenishment in the market outlook, so the hot coil 2405 contract is expected to continue to run in the interval, but the support below is better, and industrial customers who need to replenish the warehouse can still try to grasp the opportunity to build a position at a low level on the lower edge of the range, and continue to chase more at a high level.
Investment Strategy]: Interval view
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