Hua'an**: Overnight sugar rushes up** The market is more divergent; South American soybeans enter the harvest season, and the export market is competitive.
1. Under the background of excess in the rubber industry, why is the industry's capacity expansion unabated? 2. Overnight sugar rushed** The market diverged greatly 3, ICE cotton **, due to the pressure brought by the strengthening of the US dollar 4, OPEC JMMC held a ** meeting this week and is not expected to propose a production cut 5, South American soybeans entered the harvest season The export market is competitive hot6, and the pulp market ** easing will continue throughout 2024.
Under the background of excess in the rubber industry, why is the industry expanding its capacity unabated?
At present, the problems in the rubber industry are: first, the industry is large but not strong, and there is overcapacity; Second, the capacity utilization rate is generally lower than the world average; Third, the production capacity of some rubber seed devices is small, the lack of scale, and the homogenization of low-end products is serious, and high-end products still rely on imports, such as isoprene rubber, solution styrene-butadiene rubber, brominated butyl rubber, hydrogenated nitrile butadiene rubber, etc. In the future, the development direction of the rubber industry, on the one hand, with the successive production of new production capacity, the overcapacity situation of the industry will intensify, which may force the industry to develop towards integration, centralization and large-scale development, and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises. Some homogeneous, small-scale and backward production capacity may be "optimized"; On the other hand, with the improvement of people's quality of life and the improvement of production technology, downstream tires and rubber products are generally transformed into high-performance raw material demand. Finally, with the continuous expansion of production capacity, Chinese enterprises will actively explore the international market to seek exports, or the application rate of domestic products will continue to increase. (Zhuochuang Information).
Overnight, the sugar rushed** The market is more divergent.
At present, the market is divided, Brazil's production and sales are booming, this year's high inventory has put pressure on the spot market, speculators **ice US raw sugar** and options net short position, the news of India Aista estimates that India's sugar production will be reduced by 4% this season, only 31.6 million tons, and new demand may appear in China and Indonesia. According to the news released by the Brazilian Foreign Affairs Secretariat, Brazil exported a total of 2.72 million tons of sugar in the first four weeks of January, with an average daily export of 14330,000 tons, a daily average of 9The export volume of 210,000 tons increased by 56%, and the export volume in January last year was 2.03 million tons (Yunnan Sugar Network).
ICE futures cotton**, due to the strength of the US dollar brought pressure.
The most actively traded March cotton traded in the trading range of 8386 cents to 85between 21 cents. Following 2023**2After 8%, 2024 so far cotton **40% and hit a more than three-month high on Friday as recent data showed the U.S. economy was more resilient than expected and consumer confidence was higher than expected. Monday rollover is very active (i.e., moving positions from recent months to subsequent months), which is why the March contract is range-bound. The U.S. dollar index moved higher, limiting the market's **. In terms of the trend in the coming months, the USDA may have a slight downward revision of US cotton production, which could be supportive. (Master Boyi).
OPEC JMMC held a ** meeting this week and is not expected to propose production cuts.
OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will meet on Thursday, February 1, and the JMMC will not propose production cuts. As the name suggests, the organization monitors the development of the oil market and the production of member countries, and then makes recommendations for action to the ministerial meeting. A market source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that some of the current oil production cuts have only started in early January, so OPEC will need more time to assess the impact of production cuts on market supply and demand. (Business Club).
South American soybeans enter the harvest season, and the export market is competitive.
At present, the market is not much controversial about the bumper soybean yield in South America, the export progress of American soybeans is lagging behind this year, and the recent Brazilian early-maturing soybeans have been listed one after another, and the export market is fiercely competitive, and the pressure is gradually emerging, resulting in a significant reduction in the discount of Brazilian soybean CNF. China's demand has become the focus of market attention, due to long-term losses, the downstream aquaculture industry is generally cautious in procurement, which makes the inventory pressure of upstream oil mills huge, and inhibits the enthusiasm of oil mills to import soybeans in the later stage. In the case that the theme of the first end is not obvious and the demand side continues to have negative feedback, the first material of beans continues to be under pressure. (China Grain Network).
Pulp market easing will continue throughout 2024.
In 2024, there will still be new production capacity of hardwood pulp and chemical pulp at home and abroad, and the first-class surface will continue to be abundant, while the integration process of China's pulp and paper will be accelerated, and the dependence on foreign countries is expected to be reduced. But from another point of view, China's pulp supply and demand are showing a positive growth trend, from the long-term point of view, in the next few years at home and abroad there are still more than 10 million tons of pulp and paper production capacity, the later industrial chain profit transmission speed or accelerated, industry profits or equilibrium possibility. The function of pulp serving the entity industry is highlighted, and the healthy development of the paper industry is expected to accelerate after the listing of double-offset paper, corrugated paper and pulp options in the industrial chain. In addition, it is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of the new production capacity commissioning progress, the development of the international and domestic situation, and the interaction of macro changes at home and abroad on pulp prices. (Zhuochuang Information).
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