Shenzhen's first-store economy has accelerated again, bringing a significant business district agglomeration effect. Courtesy of Qianhai Authority.
F&B remains the most important rental demand**. Photo by Sun Yang.
The consumption boom in 2023 has swept the country, and it has also driven the recovery of retail properties in Shenzhen.
According to Shenzhen's consumer market data in the first ten months of 2023, the city's total retail sales of consumer goods have accumulated to 8,563100 million yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 73%。Among them, the catering industry has recovered well, and the catering revenue increased by 14% year-on-year8%。
*。A total of four shopping malls opened last year
The recovery of the consumer market has laid the foundation for the recovery of retail properties. According to Savills data, despite the lag of the epidemic at the beginning of the year and the higher vacancy rate of some new projects than the market average, the city's average vacancy rate in 2023 will still increase slightly by 0.0% year-on-year8 percentage points to 91%；However, in the fourth quarter, the first-store economy continued to develop with high quality, the market sentiment of retailers was further boosted, and the vacancy rate continued its downward trend since the previous quarter, falling by 04 percentage points.
As for the reasons for the decline in the vacancy rate, Xie Jingyu, head of market research at Savills South China, pointed out that some brands focusing on catering began to re-active in the market last year, which led to the signing and expansion of shopping malls in many places, so that the average vacancy rate of the market has also gained a downward trend under the premise of new **.
In terms of Shenzhen's retail market in 2023, a total of four shopping malls will open in Shenzhen, bringing a total of 310,000 square meters of new growth. Among them, Qianhai Yifanghui opened in the fourth quarter, with an additional area of 80,000 square meters. As of the end of last year, the city's total stock expanded by 4 percent year-on-year7% to 6.86 million square meters.
Rent. Steady and rising, Baoanda has reached a new high in the past 10 years
For China's commercial market, as long as the vacancy rate is less than 10%, it is the landlord market, but in the current economic environment, landlords do not have too many conditions to strive for rent increases, and the market is still in the early stage of recovery. Xie Jingyu said.
Despite this, rents for retail properties in Shenzhen remained stable and rising, as a small number of benchmark project owners raised rents due to continued positive asset performance. While the vacancy rate has declined for two consecutive quarters, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the rents of Shenzhen's existing projects have mostly remained stable, and the city's rental index has increased slightly by 0.0% year-on-year1%, to 562 per square meter per month$4.
Among them, Bao'an's rent increased the most, with a year-on-year increase of **24%, to 624 yuan per square meter per month, reaching a new high in the past 10 years.
Prospect. The total stock of the market will expand by 11% year-on-year
Looking forward to 2024, the Shenzhen market is expected to usher in the opening of six shopping malls, with a total scale of 7550,000 square meters. At that time, the total stock of the market will expand by 11% year-on-year to 76150,000 square meters.
or due to the impact of high**, the vacancy rate and citywide rents for the whole year of 2024 are expected to remain severe. On the one hand, considering that the rents of the projects to be put on the market may be lower than the current city-wide average, the average rent is expected to decline structurally. On the other hand, in view of the fact that most of the projects to be entered are located in non-core business districts, and some projects still face certain challenges in attracting investment in the early stage, the average vacancy rate of the city may increase slightly.
However, at the same time, the development of the local economy and the release of the huge consumption potential of the population will continue to enhance Shenzhen's attractiveness to brands, and the operational performance of high-quality benchmark projects is expected to continue to improve. Focus. a
Which industry has the most rental activity? New store 386% from food and beverage.
So, which industry has seen the most rental activity in the past year? There is almost no suspense that the catering format is still the most important rental demand**, with 38 new stores opened during the year6% came from F&B brands, and 51% in the fourth quarter3% of leasing transactions originated from the catering industry.
b. What kind of catering format is the most in demand for expansion? Casual dining occupies 1 to 4
What kind of F&B format is most in demand for expansion? The data shows that 244% of lease transactions came from casual dining; Drinks and snacks accounted for 84%; In addition, there are 76% from dessert roasting and coffee; The most common fast food eaten by "migrant workers" is only 25% of the total.