Recently, the Atlantic Council, an advisory body to the United States, published a report on the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. There are many studies on the Taiwan Strait, but this one is special because it clearly states how the United States will use nuclear weapons in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
The report said that the US military should provide Taiwan with a nuclear umbrella, and if the mainland first uses nuclear weapons to strike Taiwan, the United States will retaliate against the PLA naval vessels, various islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and the PLA landing on the island of Taiwan.
At the same time, the United States also needs to help Taiwan prepare for a follow-up nuclear war and warn Chinese mainland not to launch a nuclear counterattack, otherwise it will face the risk of a nuclear attack in depth and rear. If such a threat still cannot stop military reunification, the United States should use nuclear ** against Chinese mainland.
Of course, the United States should be prepared for a nuclear attack on its homeland, and the nuclear bomb attacking the United States may not only come from Chinese mainland, but may also come from Russia.
To tell the truth, listening to this kind of report is like listening to heaven's book, and it is appalling. The author seems to feel that the United States and even all of humanity are willing to risk extinction for the sake of Taiwan. However, this kind of report should also be worth taking a look at, because it represents alternative extreme thinking.
The author is very cunning in setting up a future war in Taiwan, assuming that Chinese mainland will use nuclear ** first. This reflects the reporter's deep belief that the United States will not dare to use nuclear weapons first.
I think the greatest value of the report is that it touches on a very interesting jurisprudence issue. China's "no first use of nuclear ** against another country" package does not include Taiwan? According to China's National Defense 2006, China "unconditionally undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries and zones".
In January 2022, a foreign media reporter asked whether it was possible for the mainland to deploy nuclear weapons near the Taiwan Strait. At that time, the head of the Arms Control Department said that nuclear ** is ultimately a deterrent force, not a war **. Therefore, we can assume that the mainland has not considered the use of nuclear ** in the event of military reunification. The role of nuclear weapons in a war in the Taiwan Strait is to deter foreign forces and make them dare not interfere in China's internal affairs.
Therefore, the most dangerous recommendation in the report of the Atlantic Council is to encourage the United States to expand its nuclear umbrella to Taiwan. During the Cold War, and even when the US military was still stationed in Taiwan, neither the United States ** nor the Kuomintang authorities considered such a crazy idea. Providing a nuclear umbrella to the Taiwan authorities is equivalent to forcing ***, and what may follow may not be a gradual escalation of a nuclear war, but a direct all-out nuclear war.
The Atlantic Council, which is also a well-known advisory body, is not unaware of this. So why such a dangerous and stupid advisory report? This is probably because various research institutes in the United States have never been able to grasp the mainland's logic regarding the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, so they have no choice but to give full play to their imagination in accordance with the idea of doing everything they can.
They hope that if the mainland recklessly launches military reunification, then the United States can follow the model of Russia, implement comprehensive isolation, sanctions, and embargoes, confiscate China's overseas assets, and promote social unrest and regime collapse on the mainland, repeating the scene of harvesting the Soviet Union after the Cold War.
As for the specific pattern of nuclear war in the Taiwan Strait, many research institutes in the United States have also made countless war games. They can't think of anything other than the use of nuclear ** that would prevent the PLA from winning in a conventional war. The Taiwan authorities and Taiwan society also do not intend to engage in any scorched-earth resistance. The analysis, reports, and suggestions of various US informants have fully reflected the embarrassment of the United States having nothing to do about the Taiwan issue.
Since conventional warfare does not work, then we have to make a fuss with nuclear **. That is the intention of the Atlantic Council to present this report. Of course, we believe that the top US political leaders are not so crazy as to consider using nuclear weapons against China for the sake of Taiwan, and the US side has never discussed the prospect of a nuclear war against China. This is a very clear and unambiguous issue that does not need to be discussed. Either the two countries will be at peace, or they will be destroyed with all of humanity.
One thing that is accurate in the results of the Atlantic Council's research is that if the point of a nuclear war really comes to destroy the world, Russia will not sit idly by, and will certainly give its thousands of nuclear bombs to the United States for enjoyment. So, things are back to square one: how do the Americans deal with the conflict in the Taiwan Strait? Still no solution.