What will happen to the property market in 2024, the stimulus within the stimulus

Mondo games Updated on 2024-02-13

The year 2023 has completely passed, and today is also the third day of the Lunar New Year, many sons-in-law have returned to their parents' homes, and of course, there are still many unmarried single dogs who have no parents to go back to, so they can only live in their own homes. As for the property market, how will it go this year, and what other relaxation measures may be, let's talk briefly today.

First of all, at the end of last year, there were two blockbuster meetings, I believe that fans and friends who like to watch news broadcasts know, one is the National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference, under the positioning of insisting on housing and not speculation, two things have been clarified, one is to stabilize the real estate market, and the other is to build a new real estate development model. The other is the first economic work conference, which emphasizes the active and prudent resolution of real estate risks, to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, to promote the stable and healthy development of the property market, and to accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. Looking at it, it is actually doing three operations, the first is to stabilize the market, the second is to reduce risks, and the third is to build a new model. Soon after the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development supported the financing needs of real estate enterprises from the financial side, and proposed to come up with a white list of real estate projects, make good use of the policy toolbox, and decentralize the autonomy of real estate regulation and control.

First of all, on January 27, Guangzhou released the city-wide purchase limit of 120 square meters, which made many improvements too exciting; Immediately afterwards, Shanghai relaxed the restrictions on the purchase of houses by non-registered singles in the outer ring; Then Beijing loosened the double purchase restrictions in Tongzhou District, Shenzhen loosened the restrictions in the last few days of the year to buy a house, and the social security of non-Shenzhen household registration was changed to three years in five years. These four big brothers can't help but introduce policies, and the little brother at the bottom is even crazier, Suzhou in Guangzhou when all the restrictions on the purchase of first-hand and second-hand people were fully released, as long as you have money, the house in Suzhou can be bought.

Judging from the previous wave of operations, this year will continue to make efforts in four aspects, first of all, the three major projects to focus on, that is, affordable housing, urban village transformation, etc. must be the top priority, of course, money from the most important thing, now how much money is lacking in the local area Everyone should understand, in the past two years, urban investment has been in the bottom of the land, it can be said that the local financial resources have been spent a lot, coupled with the recession of the property market, involving the property market land sales, tax income has also declined significantly, Therefore, in December last year, the central mother restarted the mortgage supplementary loan (PSL) of 350 billion yuan, which is the second highest level in history in a single month, and also provides medium and long-term low-cost funds for the implementation of the three major projects.

On February 4 of the previous year, 170 cities in 26 provinces have established an urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and put forward the first batch of real estate projects "white list", completed the steps of pushing commercial banks, involving a total of 3,218 real estate projects. Looking back, there was a gap of less than a month between the proposal of the deployment meeting in early January and the landing of the first batch of lists. It can be seen how hungry real estate companies are for financing now, of course, this white list is only the threshold for entry, which projects can get financing in the end, or it depends on the face of banks and financial institutions, so when there is no money, it is really more difficult to borrow money than to climb to the sky, when you have money, a lot of banknotes will be automatically sent to you, can only be icing on the cake, can not send charcoal in the snow, this is the reality faced by real estate companies, but also every adult may have faced.

Third, this year will continue to reduce mortgage interest rates, housing transaction taxes, etc., interest rates are still criticized by everyone, 4The interest rate of 2% cannot be said to be very high, but there is definitely room for it to fall, because many cities with continuous housing prices have already broken through the lower limit of interest ratesThe 8% interest rate can be seen everywhere, then this benchmark interest rate is a chicken rib, you have a benchmark, but everyone does not follow your benchmark, which means that your benchmark is not very accurate. There are deed tax, value-added tax, etc., many cities in order to attract everyone to buy a house are constantly reducing this fee, second-hand housing level is even more, when the property market tightens, take Guangzhou as an example, there is no five-year second-hand housing to pay 56% value-added tax, a house of 3 million, the tax alone will be given out of 200,000 yuan, who is it, who wants to do it, so this directly kills the transaction of the second-hand market in Guangzhou, and the market cooling is very obvious, so there is still a lot of room for decline in this piece of tax.

At present, second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Changsha, Tianjin, Suzhou and other second-tier cities still have room to continue to optimize policies, such as fully opening up new purchases, taking the lead, lowering the down payment ratio to the lower limit of the regulations, the adjustment of the lower limit of interest rates, etc., while the first-tier cities will be biased towards the suburbs and suburbs of the non-household registration of the social security period, the number of local residents' housing restrictions, divorce housing purchase restrictions, and the reduction of the threshold for settlement, etc., which are already foreseeable. And it was also mentioned in the previous tone that this year's property market policy will be the most relaxed year in history, and everyone can also look forward to it.

Of course, the recent news of the property market is to stop for a while, after all, the civil servants are on vacation, and so on the end of the eighth day of the new year, we will still see a variety of property market documents sprung up, wait patiently for a while, of course, return to the hometown to buy a house this kind of poverty type operation as much as possible, after the fourth day of the new year, it is time to go back to the big city as soon as possible.

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