DONEWS reported on January 11 that according to Canalys**, a well-known technology market analysis agency, global new energy vehicle sales are expected to increase by 29% to 13.7 million units in 2023, with a penetration rate of 17%. China will remain the largest NEV market, with local sales expected to reach 7.6 million units, accounting for 55% of the global NEV market5%。
Sales in Europe and North America reached 3.2 million and 1.8 million units, respectively, making it the top three global NEV markets in 2023 together with China. Canalys expects the global NEV market to grow by 27% to 17.5 million units in 2024.
According to Canalys**, local sales of light vehicles in China will maintain a slight increase of 1% to 22.7 million units in 2024. Among them, the local sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 9.1 million units, accounting for 40% of the total sales.
Specifically, the decline in power batteries will increase the proportion of pure electric vehicles in the small and compact market. The market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles is expected to continue to increase in the next two to three years due to their comprehensive advantages in a wide range of application scenarios and use costs.
Alvin Liu, an analyst at Canalys, pointed out that in 2024, the share of Chinese auto brands in the new energy market is expected to further rise to 78%, ahead of other competitors.
In addition, the latest battery technology and continuous improvement of charging infrastructure will alleviate the charging problem, and the initial formation of energy replenishment ecological networks such as NIO's "Battery Swap Alliance", Mercedes-Benz & BMW's "Supercharging Network" and Lotus "Flash Charging Alliance" is expected to further accelerate the penetration of pure electric vehicles.
However, new energy vehicles are now in a large market base, and it is difficult to maintain a growth rate of more than 50% in 2023, and convincing the remaining new energy vehicle conservatives will be an increasingly serious challenge.
In 2023, the European light vehicle market is expected to reach 15.7 million units, with a growth rate of 19%, reflecting Europe's strong market resilience after overcoming the best problems caused by the epidemic.
Among them, NEV sales are expected to grow by 18%, slightly lower than the overall light vehicle market, and the penetration rate is close to 2022 at 20%, indicating that Europe is still in the early stages of the electrification transition.
Canalys expects the European light vehicle market to maintain a growth rate of 2%-3% in 2024, with a market share of 24% and sales of 3.9 million units.
Liu Jiansen, chief analyst at Canalys, said that in 2023, the sales of new energy vehicles in North America are expected to reach 1.8 million units, stimulated by car purchases, credit and infrastructure subsidies. "Although the average selling price of new energy vehicles will drop by 20% in 2023, the limited selection of products on the market and the inconvenient charging experience have hindered the demand and affected the growth of the new energy vehicle market. ”
According to Canalys**, the North American new energy vehicle market will grow by 26 percent in 20248% to 2.2 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 13%, much lower than that of China and Europe.